psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z runs will be telling. Lol at flipping from suppression to warm layer worries...but the fact is both have to be a legit concern and the real culprit is the terrifyingly pathetic lack of true cold despite a freaking textbook perfect setup for a mid Atlantic snowstorm in absolute prime climo. We can’t blame pac puke this time. As I pointed out yesterday everything went right and this airmass was seeded from the Arctic. But it’s just not that cold. But the result is a double bind. The flow is perfect but that means it’s somewhat suppressive. So we can’t work with a really weak wave that doesn’t pump any ridging because that threatens being squashed. But without a deep cold airmass any wave that does amplify threatens to press a warm layer too far north. The area that gets good snow isn’t nearly as expansive as it should be in this setup. We could definitely still score here because this is a textbook perfect setup for a DC snowstorm. But it’s frustratingly more difficult then it should be given how good this setup is. Im out of ideas wrt temps. Everything went exactly the way we needed. Got the epo ridge to go up and cut off the puke. Got Canada seeded with air from the Arctic not the pac. And it’s still just not cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: Thanks for asking this, was wondering the same. I think some people just want their digital snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 14 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Too much analysis of a single ensemble control run, guys. I agree. 6z EPS mean is farther north than 0z, but it's a pretty small bump for 5-6 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Too much analysis of a single ensemble control run, guys. 9 minutes ago, Ajb said: Why is there any reason to look at the control 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Control just a short 7 hours ago....someone on here said it was straight filth Just because it’s just one control run and unlikely to be the final solution also doesn’t mean we should misrepresent/sugarcoat it. It was a BAD run. That’s it. I was pointing that out because I thought it was misrepresented a little and most can’t see it for themselves. Furthermore no one complains when there are 20 posts breaking down every part of a run that gives us 20” but gets pissy when I do the same with a run that screws us over. Both runs are equally likely and I analyze them exactly the same. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I agree. 6z EPS mean is farther north than 0z, but it's a pretty small bump for 5-6 days out. This is the most important take. The eps was north but not nearly as bad at that control run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajb Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Sure, but why the control as opposed to p587 or whatever? They have equal weight, right? Not being pissy; honestly trying to understand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Ajb said: Sure, but why the control as opposed to p587 or whatever? They have equal weight, right? Not being pissy; honestly trying to understand. Honestly because it was commented on but I felt was misrepresented. Otherwise I wasn’t going to bring it up. But the control is unperturbed and typically is very close to the operational at that range so absent an op run at 6z the control is the next best hint at what the euro thinks. More so then one of the perturbed members. That said it’s lower resolution so it won’t handle thermals as well...and the euro op was running slightly colder the last few runs so there is that. I’m not trying to be a deb I was just correcting what that specific run showed. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I thought snow maps were our number one analysis tool. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 ICON is a nice hit for most of MD...looks like us closer to DC never go below 0c at 850. Edit to add: Northern MD and Pa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, LP08 said: ICON is a nice hit for most of MD...looks like us closer to DC never go below 0c at 850. Where are you seeing it past 120? I didnt know another site had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I love your optimism but let’s be real since most can’t see the run. The 6z euro control would be a complete and utter disaster and lead to a forum meltdown. It’s all rain for anyone south of a Baltimore to leesburgh line and even up here it’s only a few inches changing to ice/rain. The entire DC area gets no snow...again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: Where are you seeing it past 120? I didnt know another site had it. Weatherbell updates pretty quickly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Yeah. ICON favors areas north of the cities mos. This this range, I'll totally take it, especially given the trend of systems trending more suppressed as we get closer to game time. Also, give me a block, prime climo, and cold nearby. That's my attitude toward the coming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 13 minutes ago, LP08 said: ICON is a nice hit for most of MD...looks like us closer to DC never go below 0c at 850. Edit to add: Northern MD and Pa. 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Where are you seeing it past 120? I didnt know another site had it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Close hit on the German model. Scheisse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Icon is mostly rain S of the MD line and mostly snow north of it. 135 hrs has a continuous stripe of snow from the KS/CO line to the Jersey shore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Looks like 6z EPS, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That's an improvement from last night correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Icon is mostly rain S of the MD line and mostly snow north of it. 135 hrs has a continuous stripe of snow from the KS/CO line to the Jersey shore. hmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: hmm.... We all know who the posters are that skew everything one way and those that skew the other. I tend to frustrate both. That’s a good thing Imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: That's an improvement from last night correct? It definitely was 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 24 minutes ago, LP08 said: ICON is a nice hit for most of MD...looks like us closer to DC never go below 0c at 850. Edit to add: Northern MD and Pa. oh good. i can be hopeful now that the Icon is on board 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 The ICON took a step toward the Euro IMO. Although I may end up getting more snow today than from what it is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajb Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Honestly because it was commented on but I felt was misrepresented. Otherwise I wasn’t going to bring it up. But the control is unperturbed and typically is very close to the operational at that range so absent an op run at 6z the control is the next best hint at what the euro thinks. More so then one of the perturbed members. That said it’s lower resolution so it won’t handle thermals as well...and the euro op was running slightly colder the last few runs so there is that. I’m not trying to be a deb I was just correcting what that specific run showed. Thanx for the response. Maybe this belongs somewhere else, but I’m curious the extent to which the next op follows the control. I guess this goes to the implicit probability distribution over the ensemble numbers (with some large unknown weight on “other” I suppose). Assuming the initial conditions update between runs, is there a physics/ingestion reason for the updated initial conditions to be closer to the control than any other perturbed member? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 GFS looks a bit more amp'd than 6z so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: GFS looks a bit more amp'd than 6z so far. drink! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: GFS looks a bit more amp'd than 6z so far. Indeed. Not crazy but a bit more poppin’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: GFS looks a bit more amp'd than 6z so far. But increased heights further north, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: Indeed. Not crazy but a bit more poppin’ Yeah, a little more interaction with the nrn s/w than 6z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, IronTy said: But increased heights further north, yes? Yes, but too much heights and we get it's ugly solution at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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