Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Para caved too but now we need a one more caving. To be as snowy as euroSent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 6z GEFS mean implies a damping wave with weaker surface reflection as it moves east, compared to 0z. Pretty much supports the look on the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Woke up to a euro jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 EPS has been very steady. Nice to see that continue at 0z. Getting close to being real. Main southern shortwave is onshore in about 72hrs. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: EPS has been very steady. Nice to see that continue at 0z. Getting close to being real. Main southern shortwave is onshore in about 72hrs. It seems like forever away. I know it's not but, with the way this winter has gone, especially with modeling, and then just how it's been since 2016 since a legit storm, and the fact the area of snow is so small with this one, it just seems like so many things can and will go wrong in the next several days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It seems like forever away. I know it's not but, with the way this winter has gone, especially with modeling, and then just how it's been since 2016 since a legit storm, and the fact the area of snow is so small with this one, it just seems like so many things can and will go wrong in the next several days. Yeah, it’s still nearly 6 days away so expectations should be tempered. As @psuhoffman has said, it looks like a fairly narrow north-south extent of snow, so very conceivable someone in the region could get screwed. I think suppression (6z gfs like?) is probably the most likely failure mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Lots of Highs to the North, that's a new thing ! And, a train of disturbances getting ready to move East . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If you don't succeed try, try again. Sooner or later we hopefully score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 The 06z EPS is definitely more amped and further north. I'm south of the 0c 850s at 144. Not a fan of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 More and more evidence building against the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 What did the euro itself show at the end of its run? It runs to 144 correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 First chance I have had too take a look at last nights Euro run. What a straight up beatdown for Winchester. Hate being in the Jack at 5 days out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: What did the euro itself show at the end of its run? It runs to 144 correct? Only to 90 Eps to 144 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 WB 6Z EPS 3 inch probability maps increased from 0Z but the 6 inch prob maps decreased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS 3 inch probability maps increased from 0Z but the 6 inch prob maps decreased. Duh it's only out to 144. The back edge is just barely coming into view just then. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS 3 inch probability maps increased from 0Z but the 6 inch prob maps decreased. Is the storm completely finished by 144? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 No, but the temps are above freezing upstairs at hour 144 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: No, but the temps are above freezing upstairs at hour 144 not for all of us 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 EPS still has the storm...wobbles in the track will determine who gets slop and who gets a nice snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 55 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Control takes the primary into Pittsburgh but we stay firmly in the cad wedge regardless. Snow to mix verbatim I love your optimism but let’s be real since most can’t see the run. The 6z euro control would be a complete and utter disaster and lead to a forum meltdown. It’s all rain for anyone south of a Baltimore to leesburgh line and even up here it’s only a few inches changing to ice/rain. The entire DC area gets no snow...again. 1 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: All rain ? 6z ?Your looking at a different run then me I guess . Definitely frozen for i95 on nw . Verbatim end of run still has surface near freezing even in the cities. Obviously not all snow . It’s no snow in DC. There is a warm layer at 850 that never gets south of about Baltimore to Leesburg. Anywhere south of that line is pretty much all Ice or rain. Those 2 are the same to me (I have no interest in ice) so I don’t bother to dig into that but it’s definitely no snow that run in DC. Yes some freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 12z runs will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 @losetoa6 this is the furthest south the cold press at mid levels gets during precip. And we can assume 850 doesn’t catch the exact warmest layer. So imo go 10 miles NW of the 0 line here and anyone south of that gets no snow on this run. This is where the 850 isotherm is as the best precip with the WAA band moves through. Anyone near or south of the line here isn’t going to get a significant snow, maybe a minor event (1-3”) before flipping but certainly nothing that would leave us feeling like we ended the curse lol remember the snow Map counts ice as snow. Even up here it looks like only about 2” of snow then changing over and we’re the northern edge of this forum. Yuck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @losetoa6 this is the furthest south the cold press at mid levels gets during precip. And we can assume 850 doesn’t catch the exact warmest layer. So imo go 10 miles NW of the 0 line here and anyone south of that gets no snow on this run. This is where the 850 isotherm is as the best precip with the WAA band moves through. Anyone near or south of the line here isn’t going to get a significant snow, maybe a minor event (1-3”) before flipping but certainly nothing that would leave us feeling like we ended the curse lol remember the snow Map counts ice as snow. Even up here it looks like only about 2” of snow then changing over and we’re the northern edge of this forum. Yuck. Well the +12 850's in South Carolina don't bode well for their historic snowstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @losetoa6 this is the furthest south the cold press at mid levels gets during precip. And we can assume 850 doesn’t catch the exact warmest layer. So imo go 10 miles NW of the 0 line here and anyone south of that gets no snow on this run. This is where the 850 isotherm is as the best precip with the WAA band moves through. Anyone near or south of the line here isn’t going to get a significant snow, maybe a minor event (1-3”) before flipping but certainly nothing that would leave us feeling like we ended the curse lol remember the snow Map counts ice as snow. Even up here it looks like only about 2” of snow then changing over and we’re the northern edge of this forum. Yuck. you being fringed on the mix-line is good at this range. ill take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Too much analysis of a single ensemble control run, guys. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajb Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Why is there any reason to look at the control (as opposed to any other ensemble member), when the op has the same initial conditions with higher resolution? Isn’t the main point of the control to diagnose the impact of the loss of resolution on the ensemble? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 7 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EPS control Control just a short 7 hours ago....someone on here said it was straight filth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ajb said: Why is there any reason to look at the control (as opposed to any other ensemble member), when the op has the same initial conditions with higher resolution? Isn’t the main point of the control to diagnose the impact of the loss of resolution on the ensemble? Thanks for asking this, was wondering the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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