CAPE Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: There has definitely been a seasonal trend of primary lows hanging on longer than we want before coastal transfer. Doesn't mean it's going to happen this time though. I'd personally still be quite happy with 5-6", drizzle and dry slot, then 24hours of snowshowers for another 1-2". But I guess YMMV. I agree. Still seems an unlikely outcome as depicted. Maybe it ends up just a thump/drizzle/dryslot, which I am fine with, but it is hinting at something more with that odd, delayed back end. Maybe that part just goes away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Getting 4-6 is fine. Getting 4-6 when everyone on the Jersey turnpike is getting 15, that’s less fine. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 from the precip plots that update to 120 hrs the CMC is a pretty good WAA thump for DC and points southeast...then the coastal takes over south of GFS but doesn't really get going like the euro...its weak and diffuse...95 west stays sleet with the somewhat weak CCB precip, a line from Ji to me west stays snow...its hard to tell what the results are until qpf because the western areas obviously get all snow and better ratios but the heaviest precip with the WAA wave is further southeast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 7 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I want a HECS more than anyone, but that's a region wide 6-8 inches for a "disaster run" of a model we already know isn't very good and was awful leading up to tomorrow's storm. If that's the floor for this storm, I'm feeling pretty great. Let's face it, is a Miller B in a La Nina really our best chance of cashing out on a flush hit HECS? My assumption would be no, but others still have the biblical Euro amounts cemented into their heads. Although the EPS is definitely more bullish than the GFS/GEFS has been as of so far, so the fact that our ground floor it seems is still 3"+, Im not sure we have a right to complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 CMC looks slightly south at 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: There has definitely been a seasonal trend of primary lows hanging on longer than we want before coastal transfer. Doesn't mean it's going to happen this time though. I'd personally still be quite happy with 5-6", drizzle and dry slot, then 24hours of snowshowers for another 1-2". But I guess YMMV. Sounds good to me. That would be a pretty solid storm. ULL can be a wild card after the thump. Could be some mini Jackpots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 12 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Im struggling to find the disaster.. Kuchera is even higher. Wasn't the GFS still showing a flush hit for Thursday this far out?? The ground floor of basically all guidance has been 3-6".. I guess it depends on where you are. GFS actually shows more snow north of DC than the Euro. I guess GFS is a disaster for areas to the south that got a foot on the Euro. DC Beltway areas do about the same (4-6) on both models, although more upside potential with the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Para quite similar to old GFS in sensible outcome. 6-9" when all said and done. Thump, dry slot, back to snow showers with the ULL. Do you find it odd that even with an incredibly far north primary and transfer...the other guidance still tries to put down some wrap around precip with the ULL in our area. What's odd about that imo is it kind of suggests the upper level track supports the euro idea of a further south secondary. The other guidance looks as if it runs the lead wave out ahead of the upper support and never recovers. Not saying that can't happen...we do love a good fail around here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 primary hanging on a little longer at 108 it would appear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'll take it. Lots of beggars trying to be choosers up in here this AM You got that right, how long has it been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Hardly a win on the 12z GFS. The snowfall totals are strung out over an 18 hour period and with warmer air working in off the Atlantic. Ratios likely not 10:1, so 3-6” area wide is questionable. 500 energy is open as it comes across, phases too late and the Midwest low as mentioned is further north of where we’d like it. A lot of moving parts, still time for things to come together, but by Thursday I expect the overall pattern to be locked in with all guidance minus the smaller details. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 CMC transfer to Out Banks at 114 looks pretty good....improvement 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, ryanconway63 said: primary hanging on a little longer at 108 it would appear psu covered up to hr 120 on the CMC...assume that's what you are referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: primary hanging on a little longer at 108 it would appear yes but it has a much better secondary to the outer banks v to the delmarva last run. But yea the pesky primary hanging on about 6 hours too long is making this more difficult then it needs to be lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 15 minutes ago, LP08 said: IF you want to feel better, Toggle back to previous runs of the gfs to 144 for Thursday. It had consistent runs (6 in row) of a shellacking for the area, then all of a sudden, boom south at about 90-96 hrs. I liked early on the run the slower ejection at H5 (@ravensrule) and better heights over the NE. Maybe ill die on this hill and be completely out to lunch, but we've seen it all winter. I've been following this aspect and have compared based on range. At this time (around 0z Sunday so 114 hours from Thursday onset), was when we had a pretty amped and great look on both the GFS and GEFS, and everything else was not as enthusiastic. Then in the following 24 hours the GFS caved. I'm not sure which met said that the GFS likes to make errors and then take 30 hours to correct, but let's hope this is one of those scenarios. Certainly something to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 CMC is a major trend toward the Euro....its not perfect yet but its going to be a pretty nice run for alot of folks.....big Win for this forum 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Nice strong CAD on the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Can someone with WB post Canadian precip/snow maps....As already mentioned it looks pretty tasty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 There is a brief period of southerly 500 winds, then it goes back to south: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 CMC is a nice hit IMO. 95 mixes with sleet for a while but gets a nice WAA thump and then some CCB love on the back end. Definitely an improvement over 0z 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Yeah, CMC is def better than the GFS. Nice compromise. I'd take it 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: Can someone with WB post Canadian precip/snow maps....As already mentioned it looks pretty tasty CMC rolls out slower on WB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Looks like the Canadian shows some snow/sleet from Sunday morning until Tuesday afternoon... Would be fun from that perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: Can someone with WB post Canadian precip/snow maps....As already mentioned it looks pretty tasty I would but they aren't updated yet...WXBELL takes FOREVER to update the CMC . By the time they do I have usually moved on to other things lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: CMC rolls out slower on WB. yeah...and SV no longer has as many options for the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: Can someone with WB post Canadian precip/snow maps....As already mentioned it looks pretty tasty It'll be out by the time the EURO starts, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Where do I sign for the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Using tropical tidbits, CMC is 6-12 through 150 with snow in the area still. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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