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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t buy the icon thermals. Low tracks from outer banks to 50 miles east of OC then due north to cape map before fading NE. That’s a good track this time of year for anyone 95 west. 

This is completely anecdotal, but I find the icon to actually be a decent model when it comes to storm track and intensity  but it doesn't pick up well on CAD at all and frequently scorches the boundary layer way too early or shows obvious mixing(sleet/frz) as plain rain.  Again just something I've noticed model watching since it's been released but I don't have any data to back it up. 

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Just now, MD Snow said:

 Primary is stronger and slightly north of 6z. One could make the case that this isn't going to cut it for our thermals after the initial thump and the transfer along the coast. Let's see. 

Yeah, seems to be sticking with the low into Ohio still. That's too far north, IMO, and gives us rain

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22 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

If anyone in this sub thinks we have a locked-in HECS or even MECS at this range, with our luck, they're looney. I'm waiting for that one Euro run that loses the storm completely leading to board meltdown. We usually get at least one run like that for every good storm.

I can hear lockpickinglawyer’s intro... it’s not locked in yet.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Even the northern crew struggles to hit warning criteria snowfall on this run of the GFS. We better hope the GEPS and the Euro look better.

Really a battle of the models. Getting close to being under that 100hr mark too. We'll see if the Americans or the Euro people win. 

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Even the northern crew struggles to hit warning criteria snowfall on this run of the GFS. We better hope the GEPS and the Euro look better.

Yeah, it's terrible. Warm, transfer happens too late, too far north. Like everyway it can fail here all rolled into one. Meh.

 

Edit: at least the front end thump looks nice while it lasts.

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GFS holds or takes a slight step back. Still some coastal snows though. So not off the table on the GFS.  ICON took a pretty significant step toward the GFS at 12z after looking very EURO'ish at 6z. Still a long way to go. 

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Even the northern crew struggles to hit warning criteria snowfall on this run of the GFS. We better hope the GEPS and the Euro look better.

Yeah...6z didn't have warning level criteria for the northern crew either. 

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