Baltimorewx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Been on my mind as well. A bad handoff would wreck dreams of many snow weenies. Thats why B's make me nervous. GFS and CMC had some sloppy handoffs showing, so hoping todays runs clean up a bit. Very true but honestly at this point I just want to see the solid WAA thump of 3-6", anything more than that is on the gravy train. I just need a solid snow on the board for the year. All the modeling seems to point to a decent WAA thump. Hard to see that completely failing right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah. That looks about as classic as you can get for a big mid-Atlantic snowstorm. It screamed textbook setup for the MA to me at 500 but what the hell do I know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: How reliable of a model is the NAVGEM its Very Bullish on the Big Storm/Slow Crawl Idea, looks like it would destroy Richmond to NY even though it only goes out to 144 It’s not. The old weenie rule though is when it’s amped that’s a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I have not seen better than this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: It screamed textbook setup for the MA to me at 500 but what the hell do I know. Clearly not where Salem Virginia is 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Soooooo.....how’s our winter storm Orlena coming along? Thanks Weather Channel. Anyway—feels like a good old fashion DMV snow storm is closing in. Liking everything I’ve read and seen. New storm thread tomorrow? Friday? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 10 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: How reliable of a model is the NAVGEM its Very Bullish on the Big Storm/Slow Crawl Idea, looks like it would destroy Richmond to NY even though it only goes out to 144 Tarot cards come to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 13 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: How reliable of a model is the NAVGEM its Very Bullish on the Big Storm/Slow Crawl Idea, looks like it would destroy Richmond to NY even though it only goes out to 144 It's a great model when it shows snow. Piece of shit otherwise though... 1 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, Scraff said: Soooooo.....how’s our winter storm Orlena coming along? Thanks Weather Channel. Anyway—feels like a good old fashion DMV snow storm is closing in. Liking everything I’ve read and seen. New storm thread tomorrow? Friday? @stormtracker will make the thread 12z tomorrow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 43 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It is? Doesn't look like it on the map posted above. At the time, looks like it runs just south of DC. That track is freaking perfect for a classic snowstorm. If a low tracking over VA beach and tucked in just east of the VA capes doesn’t work on Feb 1... 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 42 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS, I will take it...control and EPS mean Winchester bullseye. We take. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 30 minutes ago, Scraff said: Soooooo.....how’s our winter storm Orlena coming along? Thanks Weather Channel. I need my clicks and views!!! Now!! Heeheee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Inside 100 hours to game time starting with the 12z runs. Let’s f‘ing go! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: Inside 100 hours to game time starting with the 12z runs. Let’s f‘ing go! 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, IronTy said: It's still early so I might be seeing this wrong, but i think that countdown is til today's 12z run Edit: just saw the day marker above. ignore me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Deer Whisperer said: It's still early so I might be seeing this wrong, but i think that countdown is til today's 12z run Edit: just saw the day marker above. ignore me lol i did the same thing at first glance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Same here. I think we all did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Consensus was we are all-in starting with tomorrow's 12Z run. Yeah the day is on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 WB 12Z NAM at 84 hours for what it is worth... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, osfan24 said: Gonna take a guess and say the ensembles temps are being skewed by those outliers sitting inside the bay. There are a bunch of them, so something to watch, but the large majority are well off the coast. That and it’s 18z so they are also skewed by those suppressed members where by then it’s sunny and 42 degrees because suppressed or not the cold gets scoured by the ridging ahead of the wave and only floods back in if it amplified. So those weak OTS members are also likely pretty warm at 1pm. Add in they are low resolution so likely a bit too warm across the members with a storm also. I would worry way more about the h5 and surface mslp then the surface temp mean at that range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Here is Hour 90 on both the Euro and the GFS. H5 crossing into Illinois on the GFS and Euro has it SW on the MO/KS boarder. Again, over New England there is a huge difference in the strength of the confluence. FWIW (and not much at the end of the run), the Nam is in-between both of these. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: I had to google her... Shows my age Me too, but I'm only kind of old. All I saw was a bag of bones. Weather-related: I assume the storm isn't done on the EPS at 144. Looks great, either way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Does the GFS sh*t the bed again (I think so) or do we step to the Euro? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Does the GFS sh*t the bed again (I think so) or do we step to the Euro? Even while messing the bed it stepped toward the Euro in the previous runs. I will say it continues to step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: Me too, but I'm only kind of old. All I saw was a bag of bones. Weather-related: I assume the storm isn't done on the EPS at 144. Looks great, either way. No there would be another 6 hours of goods for the majority cluster with lows tucked off Delmarva. You can likely add another 1-3” to the mean snowfall south to north starting at EZF. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 19 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Even while messing the bed it stepped toward the Euro in the previous runs. I will say it continues to step. Man it sure as heck did for tomorrow's miss when we DIDN'T want it to...so c'mon GFS: Get da steppin'!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Looking at those 500mb vort charts, the NAM at 84 looks like its a blend between the GFS and EURO. Would probably lead to a more southern look than GFS if I want to extrapolate out way to far. Watching students take a virtual exam so need something to do until they finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 12z ICON hr 78 1035 HP stronger closed primary 994 southern KS/OK border. Further north than 6z counterpart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Hr 90 looking more Euroish with primary in central MO 1000mb confluence slightly better with bottom portion pushing through CT. 1036mb HP 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The ICON is similar to the EPS with a low over southern Delmarva, albeit further NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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