Baltimorewx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, frd said: AM EPS looks like a slow movement. Hard to tell thermals but guessing issues for the low lands. Jeez another issue with temps 2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Here we go again. More temp issues. The 32 degree line is way up into PA on the 06z EPS. Maye im missing something 32 degree line looks south of DC to me... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, osfan24 said: It is? Doesn't look like it on the map posted above. At the time, looks like it runs just south of DC. After. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, osfan24 said: It is? Doesn't look like it on the map posted above. At the time, looks like it runs just south of DC. I agree. Based on the posted map both the 0 degree isotherm and the 540 line are south of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: After. Can you post what you're seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Its a good low track, but the temps are toasty on the mean once the coastal gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 It tucks almost into Delaware on the control. I don’t care how cold it is beforehand, that will cause issues. Mean is definitely more tucked than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Here we go again. More temp issues. The 32 degree line is way up into PA on the 06z EPS. 32 degree surface. You are incorrect. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 7 minutes ago, frd said: This looks beautiful! The Euro ENS really are and have been locked in about as good as you can get, especially at this lead. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Its a good low track, but the temps are toasty on the mean once the coastal gets going. temps on an ens mean 130 hours out a good idea? 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Wild to see the slow movement and stall on almost all the members. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: temps on an ens mean 130 hours out a good idea? Right...I mean we know temps are PROBABLY going to be an issue at some point anyway for the usual lowland spots...thats just how it goes...just give me a front thump and a chance at the CCB...Euro seems to do that still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: temps on an ens mean 130 hours out a good idea? Probably not, but someone requested it, and someone else said it wasn't the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Folks the ENS mean surface temps are likely too high because there are some ridiculously wound up interior coastal lows. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 WB 6Z EPS, I will take it...control and EPS mean 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Wild to see the slow movement and stall on almost all the members. Gonna take a guess and say the ensembles temps are being skewed by those outliers sitting inside the bay. There are a bunch of them, so something to watch, but the large majority are well off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, osfan24 said: Gonna take a guess and say the ensembles temps are being skewed by those outliers sitting inside the bay. There are a bunch of them, so something to watch, but the large majority are well off the coast. A large percentage of those are stalling/crawling in great locations for us. LFG. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Folks the ENS mean surface temps are likely too high because there are some ridiculously wound up interior coastal lows. So wound up captured and tugged inland is a viable option still is what you are saying? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I don't know about you guys but it sure feels like there is going to be an event of some kind next week 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: So wound up captured and tugged inland is a viable option still is what you are saying? Actually I don't think so. Only a handful of the EPS members are doing that. No GEPS, or other operational model is doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Folks the ENS mean surface temps are likely too high because there are some ridiculously wound up interior coastal lows. Yup, take those 5-6 inland solutions out and it’s awesome for most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Gonna take a guess and say the ensembles temps are being skewed by those outliers sitting inside the bay. There are a bunch of them, so something to watch, but the large majority are well off the coast. Yeah. That looks about as classic as you can get for a big mid-Atlantic snowstorm. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Ok i'm tossing the ridiculously warm biased surface temps. Onto the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: Yup, take those 5-6 inland solutions out and it’s awesome for most. I'm more worried about a strung out whiff, or late transfer that misses up. That's more likely than a wound up inland solution. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 27 minutes ago, mappy said: FYI, she dated The Weekend I could take up her entire weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Based on low positions, the precip/snow mean at 144 is missing plenty more to come for some solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 28 minutes ago, mappy said: FYI, she dated The Weekend I had to google her... Shows my age 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS, I will take it...control and EPS mean Psu will feel a lot better about that 6z control/eps run. The PVA and heights were better aligned for a capture. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, ravensrule said: I could take up her entire weekend. Easy now....this is a family channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'm more worried about a strung out whiff, or late transfer that misses up. That's more likely than a wound up inland solution. Been on my mind as well. A bad handoff would wreck dreams of many snow weenies. Thats why B's make me nervous. GFS and CMC had some sloppy handoffs showing, so hoping todays runs clean up a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 How reliable of a model is the NAVGEM its Very Bullish on the Big Storm/Slow Crawl Idea, looks like it would destroy Richmond to NY even though it only goes out to 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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