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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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Am I the only person kind of rooting for the easy 4-6” event Sunday-Monday that we see on the GFS/CMC/ICON instead of this complicated looking stall on the EURO? I’m looking for a safer investment at this point.
You can have both

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Am I the only person kind of rooting for the easy 4-6” event Sunday-Monday that we see on the GFS/CMC/ICON instead of this complicated looking stall on the EURO? I’m looking for a safer investment at this point.

Idk, after the last few years of absolute misery I’m sorta all in for something big. We’re used to failure, might as well swing for the fences.

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You can have both

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I can but if I could only lock in one thing at this time I’ll take the uncomplicated one.

I want to swing for the fences but I also don’t want to end up hitting a fly ball and having it get caught right before it goes over the fence. That’s always disappointing.
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Just now, jayyy said:

Warning snows for south-central MD, DC, on south to NVA on this run. NEVA into coastal MD gets pummeled. 

Just now, jayyy said:

Warning snows for south-central MD, DC, on south to NVA on this run. NEVA into coastal MD gets pummeled. 

Just now, jayyy said:

Warning snows for south-central MD, DC, on south to NVA on this run. NEVA into coastal MD gets pummeled. 

Just now, jayyy said:

Warning snows for south-central MD, DC, on south to NVA on this run. NEVA into coastal MD gets pummeled. 

Just now, jayyy said:

Warning snows for south-central MD, DC, on south to NVA on this run. NEVA into coastal MD gets pummeled. 

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

4 pm

44651455-029D-4AC2-8DFC-EFB374E7A3EF.png

 

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1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

500 low is more baggy, elongated this run. Needs to be deepening and cutoff swinging through south of our area. 

We have time for those details to iron out. This run certainly exposes everything that can go wrong with this one though. 
 

PSU analyzed this storm into his worst nightmare. 

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:


I can but if I could only lock in one thing at this time I’ll take the uncomplicated one.

I want to swing for the fences but I also don’t want to end up hitting a fly ball and having it get caught right before it goes over the fence. That’s always disappointing.

We’ve hit 30 warning track bombs in a row..what’s one more at this point. Haha.

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Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

This is not going to get it done unfortunately. Energy does not phase and the wave hitting the coast is a baggy mess. 

What? This is a 12+ run for much of VA and a mere 20-30 mile jog north gets DC-BAL along i95 in on it too. 
 

Why does everybody need to see 12-24+  ? Lmao. Can we just settle for a damn warning event at this point?  

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Just now, jayyy said:

We have time for those details to iron out. This run certainly exposes everything that can go wrong with this one though. 
 

PSU analyzed this storm into his worst nightmare. 

That is the problem with getting hopes up on a few operational runs. It’s day 5/6 and models are only simulating what could happen with pieces of energy that may not even be over the CONUS yet. Any one of these pieces initializes off it can make things very uncertain. 

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Just now, jayyy said:

What? This is a 12+ run for much of VA and a mere 20-30 mile jog north gets DC-BAL along i95 in on it too. 
 

Why does everybody need to see 12-24+  ? Lmao. Can we just settle for a damn warning event at this point?  

I’m not in it for that! If I want a 6-10 run I’ll go skiing!  I’m in it for the big events, it’s what I work for in this field. 

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