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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


WxUSAF
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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but if the further north primary idea of the gfs/Cmc is correct it’s a split threat. WAA wave gets suppressed coastal forms late. We’re stuck in between.  Always something waiting to steal out snow man. 

So we need the suppression on the primary to get it just south enough to form when we need it?

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

the precip(not the precip type) has fully updated. Lots of greeen over us

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2021012700&fh=24

Thanks.  I only look at weenie maps that show blue.  
 

Looks like DC flirts with mixing/rain during at least part of the storm.  

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:

got it---still with that track--threre isnt much CCB on the model. is it cause LP isnt deep enough?

Messy transfer. The euro amplified the h5 low and rolls it through with a clean transfer and phase with the secondary. The other guidance gets to the Ohio valley then gets messy. The upper level low broadens and starts to pinwheel around and the secondary can’t really amplify and develop a nice clean closed circulation to get that ccb going. 

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6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait those are Y's? Lol

Now what starts with the letter Y?

Canadian airports start with Y!

Toronto is YYZ!

 

(Sorry, not mocking, just had a certain song pop into my head.  Give me a couple minutes and I could probably write an entire parody to said famous song using the above.)

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