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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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Just now, psuhoffman said:

It’s a colder run then 18z though. 

Yeah.  Confluence as a whole was better on both, I think (using that term loosely) that this could be the gfs liking to drive primaries way too far north. We saw it with Thursday where it wanted to get the storm into WVa before jumping.

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Just now, Ji said:

not looking for 40. Anything over 20 would do

It (oddly I don’t but it) holds onto the primary longer. But it’s a lot colder before the 6-12 hours or so that screws up our thermals.  But despite that it’s still closer to getting us with a coastal after. If you remove the primary hanging on so long this was a pretty big jump the right way otherwise Imo. 

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50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Icon secondaries off VA beach and tracks the h5 right across N VA but it captures too soon and tucks the low due north up onto NJ before sliding east. Get rid of that and it’s a better run. I didn’t mind this run at all. 

what do you mean it captures too soon?

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Too far west...tucks in slightly too tight. But I don’t buy a lot from off VA beach ending up inland over NJ 

got it---still with that track--threre isnt much CCB on the model. is it cause LP isnt deep enough?

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Too far west...tucks in slightly too tight. But I don’t buy a lot from off VA beach ending up inland over NJ.  But one reason that run is icon takes too long to progress the h5 east. 

Just for clarification, assuming the ideal spot for the coastal is V/NC border?

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