Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Funny thing is it did at 6/12z and everyone kinda figured the fight was over but then it reverted at 18z and now has a buddy in the Icon. well every run the GFS does not cave puts alot more pressure on the euro. What happened to the euro? Every model used to cave to it:( 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: Pretty stark differences between the euro and gfs. See that feature in Quebec on the euro. That was the piece of the tpv that came across in front and squashed the northern wave. On the gfs that instead phases with the northern wave. After that it’s a done deal both ways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 i dont think the GGEM is going to cave to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: well every run the GFS does not cave puts alot more pressure on the euro. What happened to the euro? Every model used to cave to it:( You aren’t going to like this but I’m not sure the gfs is going to cave. I still won’t bet against the euro when it’s rock steady over several days like this...and has the cmc on its side. But something keeps nagging me in the back of my mind. The way the gfs handles that western TPV is simpler. Less convoluted. Simply merges it with the strong NS wave diving into it. The euro on the other hand does this weird elongation and split to avoid that and instead through that odd progression ends up suppressing and squashing the NS SW. But 2 things bug me. 1 we are in a northern stream dominant regime. 2 the gfs progression is simpler and simple usually wins v convoluted. So yea the better guidance is on our side. But Nina climo, recent trends, and history of simple v convoluted setups are on the other side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Who's got the Apollo moon mission black&white Canadian maps to counter the GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: i dont think the GGEM is going to cave to the GFS Doesn’t seem like it through 132. I’d take my chances with Euro/GGEM vs GFS/ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 GGEM is actually colder than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Ggem very euro like. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 CMC looks like a crush job. I think. I’m looking at TT. I see blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 psu wont like the canadien Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Dark blues over DC at 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I’m sure PSU will soon explain why it was a slight move towards the GFS and burst our bubble lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 meanwhile GFS through 246 continues to be an atrocity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: GGEM is actually colder than 12z Big if here...but if the euro cmc have the right idea with not phasing the tpv out west and crushing the NS front runner...then suppression is by far the bigger threat for places north of DC from the southern wave. That block is legit. The NS wave only cuts because it phases with a piece of that tpv. If it misses that boat it’s getting crushed and that southern wave will struggle to gain much latitude in this flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: psu wont like the canadien It’s 150 out. That’s fine. You know details will shift slightly even inside 48 hours let alone 150. But again shame in this setup look at that rather pathetic scope of snowfall. It makes it harder to get a hit when the margin of error is so small. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Is that an actual clipper on the GFS at 252hrs I though they were extinct 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’m sure PSU will soon explain why it was a slight move towards the GFS and burst our bubble lol Lol I haven’t even started to analyze it. While Ji moves from precip plot to precip plot looking for blue I’m OCD analyzing all the different levels and details to see why exactly the run did what it did. Haven’t even got to the cmc yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Lol I haven’t even started to analyze it. While Ji moves from precip plot to precip plot looking for blue I’m OCD analyzing all the different levels and details to see why exactly the run did what it did. Haven’t even got to the cmc yet. One thing I noticed on the CMC was the dark blue must be rate driven because it’s above 546dm over DC. Barely cold enough. No margin for error. Don’t want to be relying on that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: And a bit slower and stronger with the ssw energy Way less lakes lows on the individual members, a step in the right direction for sure 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 The CMC is like a dog with a bone. It's been remarkable consistent...or in the ballpark of consistent. Meanwhile, the GFS......shut up 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Much better A few euro/ggem solutions in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: One thing I noticed on the CMC was the dark blue must be rate driven because it’s above 546dm over DC. Barely cold enough. No margin for error. Don’t want to be relying on that. Welcome to 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 29 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’m sure PSU will soon explain why it was a slight move towards the GFS and burst our bubble lol 32 minutes ago, LP08 said: Ggem very euro like. 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The CMC is like a dog with a bone. It's been remarkable consistent...or in the ballpark of consistent. Meanwhile, the GFS......shut up The cmc/euro and gfs are night and day how they handle the interaction between the western trough and the tpv between 100-120 hours. I wanted to show it clearer but the h5 plots for Canada weren’t updated yet for the cmc but you can see it here...by 120 it’s a done deal cmc/euro v gfs/Icon progression. cmc at 120 the tpv elongated on top of the western trough and did not phase. It’s instead suppressing the northern stream wave (NSW) lol. gfs same time the tpv had phased with the NS wave and look at that ridging east of it. It’s game over already at that point the divergence after is the result of that singular difference which actually happens around 100 hours up in Canada but those maps weren’t out yet. by 144 you can see the end result cmc the tpv elongated and broke a piece off that came across on top and crushed the NS wave. The SSW was left to amplify and you see the ridging in front to combat the shred factory on top from the blocking. gfs at 144 the phased NS system came across on top end wrecked our temps but also the flow under that is squashing the SSW. No chance in that progression. cmc and euro are both handling that the same way. Just trying to point out the why behind it. Hope someone finds this interesting. 5 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Great post PSU, thanks for the visuals. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Psu what happened to your 3rd storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ji said: Psu what happened to your 3rd storm? Simply guidance tonight trended towards a much weaker wave ejecting out west. The ridge out west was actually better on the gfs. No real change in the longwave pattern. The setup is still there. But what had been a very healthy wave being ejected from the western trough suddenly went poof tonight. ETA: there are a handful of members in the gefs that still have it. Let’s see what the eps does before declaring it dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Well at 96 hours, Euro is looking more CMC like than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Euro still handling the tpv interaction different from gfs, hopefully same result as cmc & previous run Gfs euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 This isn't going to turn out like the GFS..that much is looking sure. Sfc matches CMC pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts