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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


WxUSAF
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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Icon with snow around 120 hour and colder so far 

Man I was just looking at hr90 and that is one hell of a vort at h5 out in the middle of the country. Feels really good to track one of these big potentials again and not have it be 240 hrs plus away.

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Icon was way north with that lead wave at 18z as well.  It does not seem to be hinting at any suppression. 

I’m watching how much latitude the storm gets before reaching the coast. Too far north and the transfer misses us and we’re in the ripoff zone. Of course too far south and you get those suppression scenarios we saw in the eps members. 

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1 minute ago, Negnao said:

I’m watching how much latitude the storm gets before reaching the coast. Too far north and the transfer misses us and we’re in the ripoff zone. Of course too far south and you get those suppression scenarios we saw in the eps members. 

Yep.  Too far north and its a Miller rip off.  But like others have said the icon is advertising wsw  snows for many.  Just not a euro becs. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Icon secondaries off VA beach and tracks the h5 right across N VA but it captures too soon and tucks the low due north up onto NJ before sliding east. Get rid of that and it’s a better run. I didn’t mind this run at all. 

I liked it also got a little wonky at the end jumping the low around the coast 

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25 minutes ago, nj2va said:

PSU panics about being fringed and an hour later ICON jackpots him with 1.5” QPF as snow.   

Technically I flip to a lot of sleet after about 5” of snow but I doubt it with that track and h5 capture and pass. Typically those systems wind up with tightly would thermals. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Icon secondaries off VA beach and tracks the h5 right across N VA but it captures too soon and tucks the low due north up onto NJ before sliding east. Get rid of that and it’s a better run. I didn’t mind this run at all. 

The thermals are wonky surface temps in the low 20s in Northern MD with a bombing storm off the coast and it's not snow lol. Doesnt make sense to me.

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