jaydreb Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 17 minutes ago, Ji said: It'd almost Wed and the storm has precip close by on Saturday night Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Who are you and what have you done with Ji? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I can understand where @psuhoffman is coming from. Just ask yourself one question ... what has every storm done for the past month and a half (that wasn’t a cold front). Where did the best precip go yesterday? I was progged to get anywhere from about 0.6 to well over an inch of precip. We got 0.2. We’ve had 1.35 since December. I’ll admit it. I’m sweating getting next to no precip with this one too. But I’m going at this one different. The model with the least precip is my baseline. Then I’m dividing that by 3 and basing my snowfall hopes in that. Just once I’d like to be in the precip max area. I wouldn’t even care if it was rain. I’d just like to see if it can happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 47 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So why is the suppression such a threat (again) here, if the blocking is relaxing? I'm not getting the moving parts here and what has been causing all the squashing we've been seeing lately... First I think people misunderstand when I fret about something. Notice I don’t pitch a fit when a relatively minor event evaporates. I don’t when a setup we knew was iffy falls apart. But when I think something has truly rare potential...a setup we don’t get often...one I don’t want to waste because it might not come again soon...when I actually think we will get a good snowstorm, that’s when I am picky and fret at any little sign it might fall apart. We have more to lose. So me fretting is a GOOD thing. It means Im invested and actually think we will get snow. If I didn’t I wouldn’t care about a slight trend here or there. But we kinda wasted one of these opportunities in December. It underperformed potential. We wasted one this week. So yea this is the 3rd crack at imo a really good high potential event and I’d like to not strike out considering we can go years without getting these kinds of patterns and setups. We can’t afford to waste them. Now as for why suppression is a risk even if smaller then the last few waves. Keep in mind we need suppression. We’re south of the mean storm track when there is none. But too much of a good thing and it’s congrats Richmond. I don’t think this can go too much further but I’d rather not test that theory. The blocking is relaxing but not gone yet. that upper low is a beaut but the spacing is still a little tight. The ridge axis out west is east of the canonical Boise target and positively tilted. That could put pressure on the wave and make it progressive or dig too far into the southeast. The flow to the northeast is also still pretty suppressive. The 50/50 is vacating but the timing is close. It’s not a sure thing. That high in Canada (remnants of the block) is pretty far south. All it would take is for that upper low to take the red track v the green and Baltimore north is smoking citrus whole VA and NC get snow. That doesn’t mean I think that’s happening. I don’t. But it’s the most likely fail so I don’t want to see even a hint of guidance moving that way. Not even a bit. ETA: this panel is absolutely beautiful and rare for an ensemble at 144 but all it would take for a miss to the south is to adjust that to the red circle. Given the trend...48 hours ago that h5 low was up in New England, and we’re not 100% safe from that YET. Frankly 1-2 more adjustments like the last several runs and were in trouble. If we see the euro stabilize tonight and tomorrow with no further shift south (and I mean NONE not this thing we do where we try to ignore or excuse it away like oh it’s just noise) then I will feel a lot better. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Thanks for the write up. That’s the control btw though. This is the eps mean same time. Just for reference. The eps mean is a little better then the 18z control imo. Control dove the h5 low too far south for my liking. It’s all too far east for my liking, the ridge and the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 18 minutes ago, Ji said: Psu meltdowns are amazing. Even i can't reach that level of epicness Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk We melt for opposite reasons. You melt down when you know it’s going bad. I melt down when I think it should go good and get nervous at any little sign that has the potential to derail a rare opportunity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Is some of the snow in SW va from Thursday?In the SW neck of VA, about 2” is from Thursday. Otherwise 1” or less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 @psuhoffman what is the gfs seeing that the euro isn’t or vice versa? Is it strictly just stronger confluence overall or will the western ridge end up dictating how big this storm can get or be? There’s a lot of moving pieces to keep up with. Seems like the HP can cautiously be checked off the needs list. Is the GFS doing it’s typical driving of LP’s too far into a cad type setup or does it actually hold merit in this instance in your opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 @psuhoffman Thanks for the explanation! And yes, I haven't forgotten that your fret level runs parallel with the snow potential, lol So in that case...fret away! It's like your inner Ji comes out and Ji's inner psu comes out (well kinda) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I will be watching the V500 84 panel on the 0z Euro to see if the TVP pushes any further south on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Icon with snow around 120 hour and colder so far Man I was just looking at hr90 and that is one hell of a vort at h5 out in the middle of the country. Feels really good to track one of these big potentials again and not have it be 240 hrs plus away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Icon tucks the SLP into the South Jersey Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Icon is Iconic! Edit: this is based on precip maps. I have no idea if it is snow or not. Based off of SLP location, I would guess snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Icon with snow around 120 hour and colder so far You’re ahead of me but but 96 hrs HP has gone from 1035 to 1038. Good cold press pushing down from NY State and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 PSU panics about being fringed and an hour later ICON jackpots him with 1.5” QPF as snow. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Considering the worry of fringe.. that's a decent run. Still basically WSW snows for DC and west, Northern Maryland gets a great snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Icon behaving like a miller b in a Nina. Best snow to the NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Primary at 120 further to the west northwest of 18z location. Difference of basically having it be in central KY vs southern/southeastern IN. Noticeable shift tho IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Negnao said: Icon behaving like a miller b in a Nina. Best snow to the NE. Icon was way north with that lead wave at 18z as well. It does not seem to be hinting at any suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 VA fringed. So much for the South TREND! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Icon was way north with that lead wave at 18z as well. It does not seem to be hinting at any suppression. I’m watching how much latitude the storm gets before reaching the coast. Too far north and the transfer misses us and we’re in the ripoff zone. Of course too far south and you get those suppression scenarios we saw in the eps members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Negnao said: I’m watching how much latitude the storm gets before reaching the coast. Too far north and the transfer misses us and we’re in the ripoff zone. Of course too far south and you get those suppression scenarios we saw in the eps members. Yep. Too far north and its a Miller rip off. But like others have said the icon is advertising wsw snows for many. Just not a euro becs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFS! GFS! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, mappy said: GFS! GFS! Is it out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Is it out yet? HP is 1mb stronger at 72 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, yoda said: HP is 1mb stronger at 72 lol abscond! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Icon secondaries off VA beach and tracks the h5 right across N VA but it captures too soon and tucks the low due north up onto NJ before sliding east. Get rid of that and it’s a better run. I didn’t mind this run at all. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Is it out yet? It’s coming out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Icon secondaries off VA beach and tracks the h5 right across N VA but it captures too soon and tucks the low due north up onto NJ before sliding east. Get rid of that and it’s a better run. I didn’t mind this run at all. I liked it also got a little wonky at the end jumping the low around the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 25 minutes ago, nj2va said: PSU panics about being fringed and an hour later ICON jackpots him with 1.5” QPF as snow. Technically I flip to a lot of sleet after about 5” of snow but I doubt it with that track and h5 capture and pass. Typically those systems wind up with tightly would thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, yoda said: HP is 1mb stronger at 72 lol The spirit that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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