Interstate Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, anotherman said: Come on....I don’t think we’re to that point yet. I do with how the models have kept shifting south each run on all the past storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Don’t joke like that...seriously don’t tempt fate. I could see this plastering southern VA in this pattern. I know you’re a realist and always will be and base your emotions off science. I’m just a little surprised how pessimistic you are overall. I still think you get in on the action for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: On Eps 18z the pac backed off some Yea I noticed that. The 500 heights were a bit better across Idaho as the energy transversed the midwest. That's big. It the west coast ridge starts washing out then our goose is cooked. So far I don't see that happening. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Buddy1987 said: I know you’re a realist and always will be and base your emotions off science. I’m just a little surprised how pessimistic you are overall. I still think you get in on the action for sure. South trend burns us on Thursday...so I guess before we get comfortable we have to see just how suppressed things get. Perhaps we should be concerned if 0z makes another south trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Is everyone in here freaking out about a south Trend north of DC/VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, anotherman said: Come on....I don’t think we’re to that point yet. Depends...if you look at it AS IS it’s great. If you project likely future trends based on seasonal model bias it’s iffy. I would also prefer slightly north because that’s a safer bet. I cannot see given that flow to our north any scenario in which this cuts to the point we don’t get a decent if not warning level snow. Even if it took a gfs like track we probably get 6” before any change up here. I can totally live with that. I just want a snowstorm. But the more the primary trends slower and south and we rely on a coastal yes that could be huge but it also could be us smokin cirrus if the h5 swings too far south. I would rather it be slightly too far north of perfect on guidance at this range because of the seasonal trends and that gives us way more wiggle room from a complete bust up here. Obviously this is location specific. If I was in VA suppressed would be less of a concern but even there...if you told me DC gets no snow from this I would say it must have been suppressed. I can see ways we miss a hecs by a north track but the only way I see is getting totally screwed us if the storm cuts off and slides out to our south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delgto04 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: The 500mb pattern depicted on the ENS is close to something big but not quite there yet. The best look the Mid Atlantic has had in two years, but ideally we need the western ridge more amplified and further west with the 500 low deepening and closed as it passes south of us and off the coast. Tilt going more negative and a phase to cutoff and keep the CCB going. It’s close, but not quite there yet. Fortunately we have cold high pressure over southern Canada vs that upper low which suppressed the Thursday system. Given trends this year, if we continue to see the ECMWF holding the pattern into 72 hours from onset with the ukmet and icon following along we will be in a favorable trend. These models have been consistent in showing the suppression patterns, more conservative. Coastal transfer time and deepening is crucial with Miller B type systems. If the Midwest low is too strong the transfer gets delayed and not favorable per GFS. Hoping for a win for this forum. But, let’s also keep in mind that the pieces to the puzzle are all being simulated at various points...some outside the U.S. so swings and uncertainty will be factors this far out. I think by Thursday there should be much better consistency and a better picture of where we are headed with this. Just my two cents. ERS Always respected your analysis and glad to see you posting. I check in a bit but this one has my attention. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Depends...if you look at it AS IS it’s great. If you project likely future trends based on seasonal model bias it’s iffy. I would also prefer slightly north because that’s a safer bet. I cannot see given that flow to our north any scenario in which this cuts to the point we don’t get a decent if not warning level snow. Even if it took a gfs like track we probably get 6” before any change up here. I can totally live with that. I just want a snowstorm. But the more the primary trends slower and south and we rely on a coastal yes that could be huge but it also could be us smokin cirrus if the h5 swings too far south. I would rather it be slightly too far north of perfect on guidance at this range because of the seasonal trends and that gives us way more wiggle room from a complete bust up here. Obviously this is location specific. If I was in VA suppressed would be less of a concern but even there...if you told me DC gets no snow from this I would say it must have been suppressed. I can see ways we miss a hecs by a north track but the only way I see is getting totally screwed us if the storm cuts off and slides out to our south. So why is the suppression such a threat (again) here, if the blocking is relaxing? I'm not getting the moving parts here and what has been causing all the squashing we've been seeing lately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 13 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: The 500mb pattern depicted on the ENS is close to something big but not quite there yet. The best look the Mid Atlantic has had in two years, but ideally we need the western ridge more amplified and further west with the 500 low deepening and closed as it passes south of us and off the coast. Tilt going more negative and a phase to cutoff and keep the CCB going. It’s close, but not quite there yet. Fortunately we have cold high pressure over southern Canada vs that upper low which suppressed the Thursday system. Given trends this year, if we continue to see the ECMWF holding the pattern into 72 hours from onset with the ukmet and icon following along we will be in a favorable trend. These models have been consistent in showing the suppression patterns, more conservative. Coastal transfer time and deepening is crucial with Miller B type systems. If the Midwest low is too strong the transfer gets delayed and not favorable per GFS. Hoping for a win for this forum. But, let’s also keep in mind that the pieces to the puzzle are all being simulated at various points...some outside the U.S. so swings and uncertainty will be factors this far out. I think by Thursday there should be much better consistency and a better picture of where we are headed with this. Just my two cents. ERS Thanks for the write up. That’s the control btw though. This is the eps mean same time. Just for reference. The eps mean is a little better then the 18z control imo. Control dove the h5 low too far south for my liking. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Thanks for the write up. That’s the control btw though. This is the eps mean same time. Just for reference. The eps mean is a little better then the 18z control imo. Control dove the h5 low too far south for my liking. What's important is that it's a closed 500mb low to so this thing won't be blasting through like a rocket. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Can someone post the eps snow mean please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Thanks for the write up. That’s the control btw though. This is the eps mean same time. Just for reference. The eps mean is a little better then the 18z control imo. Control dove the h5 low too far south for my liking. Hey man...go make some tea and watch a comedy...soft kitty warm kitty little ball of fur...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Don’t joke like that...seriously don’t tempt fate. I could see this plastering southern VA in this pattern. You know you always welcome down here Hasselhoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Chris78 said: Can someone post the eps snow mean please. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Is everyone in here freaking out about a south Trend north of DC/VA?Some of us are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I know you’re a realist and always will be and base your emotions off science. I’m just a little surprised how pessimistic you are overall. I still think you get in on the action for sure. Lol I’m not pessimistic. If I didn’t think I had a good chance of actually getting this one I wouldn’t be as nervous wrt what could go wrong. I don’t fret when I know it’s going to fail. It’s when I know a setup has extremely rare potential that doesn’t come along often that it would hurt bad if it fails. Imo the bigger threat to a fail for my location is suppressed. So seeing the eps nudge south again (when frankly I was in the bullseye up here 2 runs ago already) isn’t what I want to see. It just isn’t. Given the seasonal trend why would anyone want to see a south trend when we’re still 130 hours away? So perspective I still am optimistic. But that’s why I don’t want to see any hint at the setup unraveling. Even if it’s just the tiniest little speck of a hint. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Can someone post the eps snow mean please. Wouldn't be worth your time. the 06 and 18z Euro only go out to HR 144 on the ENS and it wouldn't show a picture of the entire storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Is some of the snow in SW va from Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Wouldn't be worth your time. the 06 and 18z Euro only go out to HR 144 on the ENS and it wouldn't show a picture of the entire storm. That looks pretty darn good considering it's only part of the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Lol I’m not pessimistic. If I didn’t think I had a good chance of actually getting this one I wouldn’t be as nervous wrt what could go wrong. I don’t fret when I know it’s going to fail. It’s when I know a setup has extremely rare potential that doesn’t come along often that it would hurt bad if it fails. Imo the bigger threat to a fail for my location is suppressed. So seeing the eps nudge south again (when frankly I was in the bullseye up here 2 runs ago already) isn’t what I want to see. It just isn’t. Given the seasonal trend why would anyone want to see a south trend when we’re still 130 hours away? So perspective I still am optimistic. But that’s why I don’t want to see any hint at the setup unraveling. Even if it’s just the tiniest little speck of a hint. Well you’re one hell of a contributor to the board and your time and analysis don’t go unnoticed. Thanks for everything now and in the future ahead of time for sure. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Chris78 said: That looks pretty darn good considering it's only part of the storm. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Is everyone in here freaking out about a south Trend north of DC/VA?Yup . 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I think we all know, if this storm has an historic potential, now is the time for it to be modeled that way across the board. 2016 was at least 6+days out with unusual model agreement. BUT if not even historic, 4-8 even 6-10 inches is a win In my book. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Thanks for the write up. That’s the control btw though. This is the eps mean same time. Just for reference. The eps mean is a little better then the 18z control imo. Control dove the h5 low too far south for my liking. There are subtle differences but same reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 La nina years don't tend to model storms well a week in advance. Today's euro was nice, but it needs a lot of support still being a week out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 La nina years don't tend to model storms well a week in advance. Today's euro was nice, but it needs a lot of support still being a week out.It'd almost Wed and the storm has precip close by on Saturday night Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Psu meltdowns are amazing. Even i can't reach that level of epicnessSent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 1 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: La nina years don't tend to model storms well a week in advance. Today's euro was nice, but it needs a lot of support still being a week out. Precip is in the SW part of the forum late Saturday night and into DC after midnight. yes, its always good to be measured around here but this isn’t a week out. Ninja’d by losetoa6 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Precip is in the SW part of the forum late Saturday night and into DC after midnight. yes, its always good to be measured around here but this isn’t a week out. Ninja’d by losetoa6 I thought it was starting Sunday evening through Monday (or Tuesday morning if we’re lucky). That was what I saw on the Euro. Regardless, it’s only about 5 days away! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 12 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: I think we all know, if this storm has an historic potential, now is the time for it to be modeled that way across the board. 2016 was at least 6+days out with unusual model agreement. BUT if not even historic, 4-8 even 6-10 inches is a win In my book. I saw your profile picture and thought that @Ji was willing to settle. Should have known better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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