Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 15 minutes ago, nj2va said: ^^^hard to find major differences on the 18z Euro. EPS will be out soon. It’s uncanny how exactly the same those are. Wow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Not bad . Widespread area then I pretty much agree Maybe bump BECS to 30+ widespread I thought about that but how often does that happen? Even at your yard. 30+ is just a tough milestone. I’ll take the HECS with a side of SECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 BTW, looking at the Euro our vort is onshore within 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Confluence relaxing a bit on 18z Eps at 108. SW a touch stronger EPS is beautiful look at this h5. OMG 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Woof 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 On the subject of categorizing storms, 4-6 or anything with a verified warning a to me is significant so: SECS. MECS I’d say 8-16. 16-24 HECS. BECS 24 plus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Closed 500 ensemble mean again. Wooooooooof. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Woof Almost perfect location imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 hours ago, Solution Man said: Actually moving back to the area again this Summer. My agency is reposting me again Glad to be getting you back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Western ridge is sharper on the 18z Euro through HR 90. A good sign. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Remember when there was 12 hours in between the Euro runs? I know the 0Z and 18 z are not as good, but it helps to have a little something in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: Glad to be getting you back! Thanks brother 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Nice progression 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Pretty much as good as a signal as you can get at this lead time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, SnowLover22 said: Pretty much as good as a signal as you can get at this lead time. We want it to be showing an 880 mb mean not a 1002 mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 That144 500 EPS map is straight up gorgeous. Perfect position for us with the cold that is being advertised. It appears I am going to be dropping hundreds of weenies on posts over the next few days. Ridiculous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The 500mb progression on the 18z Euro is textbook for a warning level event at DCA, IAD, and BWI. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 20 minutes ago, snowfan said: And w the 96 storm, many of us had a follow up snowfall later that week before the big flooding. Some of us had two follow-up snowfalls. That Friday was another synoptic snowstorm, but there was a vort that Tuesday afternoon that put down a band of heavy snow across DC and the east side of town. I got another 6" out of that unexpected event. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I'm starting to feel pretty good about this. Those ensembles are a beaut! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The control is a full on Virginia special.. costal is pivoting bands up through DC at this time with temps in the mid 20s. Nuts 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Control looks like a solid setup, already 6-12" in VA and slp is still south of the VA/NC border @144. ninja'd 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, SnowDreamer said: Control looks like a solid setup, already 6-12" in VA and slp is still south of the VA/NC border @144. If it went out to 168, it'd be a HUGE hit. There's also 0c 850s almost right down to the LP. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Pretty good disco from Mount Holly- The High will slowly lift NE on Sunday as low pressure moves into the Ohio valley, and this system should follow the typical evolution with the interior low occluding and a secondary low beginning to take shape along the coastal front to our south late Sunday into Monday. At this stage, guidance essentially proposes two solutions in terms of the evolution of this system: 1.) A fairly progressive system in which the primary low reaches the Great Lakes before the "energy transfer" with the coastal system occurs (the coastal low doesn`t really get going until it is near our latitude in that scenario). This results in warm-advection driven wintry precipitation at onset which then changes to rain/mix for at least part of our area later in the event. With this solution most of the precipitation would occur late Sunday, with lighter precipitation persisting into Monday- Tuesday as the mid-lvl wave passes. 2.) A slower solution in which the energy transfer takes place upstream of our area, and the coastal low becomes dominant south of the area. The mid-lvl wave then further amplifies and closes off near the east coast on Monday, which then results in the surface low tracking slowly N-NE Monday into Tuesday. This solution could result in a fairly long duration precipitation event for portions of the Mid-Atlantic (at present most favored just south of us), and has a more potential from a winter weather standpoint given the longer duration, and more favorable thermal profiles with the low remaining to our south. While this scenario has the biggest "hit" potential, it also has some "miss" potential, as it is possible the the low doesn`t close off until the system is over the Atlantic which would track the system east of the area, resulting in our area only being on the fringe of any precipitation. Given the general trends/biases in guidance in the blocking regime that has prevailed the last couple months, tend to give a bit more weight to the slower/more amplified solution, so slowed down PoPS a bit. Also, despite the tendency for suppressed systems missing us to the south in this regime, this system will likely be amplifying near our region with diving northern-stream energy helping to reinforce it. Consequently made the decision to bump PoPs slightly to the likely range at least for the southern half of the area on Monday, but capped at 60 given the "miss" scenario described above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, SnowDreamer said: Control looks like a solid setup, already 6-12" in VA and slp is still south of the VA/NC border @144. Wow wow wow and plenty to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: If it went out to 168, it'd be a HUGE hit. There's also 0c 850s almost right down to the LP. your not kidding. DC was about to get destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Look at that comma head tapping moisture out of the gulf. Love to see this! (Control) eta: Heyo! 100th post 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Are there any indications of a crawl up the coast? 18z eps, wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: Look at that comma head tapping moisture out of the gulf. Love to see this! (Control) eta: Heyo! 100th post That comma head will drop a foot of snow in less than 10 hours on those lucky enough to cash in. December 2009 had a similar feature if i remember correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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