January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

[Cobalt]

The control is a full on Virginia special.. costal is pivoting bands up through DC at this time with temps in the mid 20s. Nuts

[SnowDreamer]

Control looks like a solid setup, already 6-12" in VA and slp is still south of the VA/NC border @144. 

ninja'd

 

[JakkelWx]

Just now, SnowDreamer said:

Control looks like a solid setup, already 6-12" in VA and slp is still south of the VA/NC border @144. 

 

If it went out to 168, it'd be a HUGE hit. There's also 0c 850s almost right down to the LP. 

[CAPE]

Pretty good disco from Mount Holly-

The High will slowly lift NE on Sunday as low pressure moves into the Ohio valley, and this system should follow the typical evolution with the interior low occluding and a secondary low beginning to take shape along the coastal front to our south late Sunday into Monday. At this stage, guidance essentially proposes two solutions in terms of the evolution of this system:

1.) A fairly progressive system in which the primary low reaches the Great Lakes before the "energy transfer" with the coastal system occurs (the coastal low doesn`t really get going until it is near our latitude in that scenario). This results in warm-advection driven wintry precipitation at onset which then changes to rain/mix for at least part of our area later in the event. With this solution most of the precipitation would occur late Sunday, with lighter precipitation persisting into Monday- Tuesday as the mid-lvl wave passes.

2.) A slower solution in which the energy transfer takes place upstream of our area, and the coastal low becomes dominant south of the area. The mid-lvl wave then further amplifies and closes off near the east coast on Monday, which then results in the surface low tracking slowly N-NE Monday into Tuesday. This solution could result in a fairly long duration precipitation event for portions of the Mid-Atlantic (at present most favored just south of us), and has a more potential from a winter weather standpoint given the longer duration, and more favorable thermal profiles with the low remaining to our south. While this scenario has the biggest "hit" potential, it also has some "miss" potential, as it is possible the the low doesn`t close off until the system is over the Atlantic which would track the system east of the area, resulting in our area only being on the fringe of any precipitation. Given the general trends/biases in guidance in the blocking regime that has prevailed the last couple months, tend to give a bit more weight to the slower/more amplified solution, so slowed down PoPS a bit. Also, despite the tendency for suppressed systems missing us to the south in this regime, this system will likely be amplifying near our region with diving northern-stream energy helping to reinforce it. Consequently made the decision to bump PoPs slightly to the likely range at least for the southern half of the area on Monday, but capped at 60 given the "miss" scenario described above.

[Solution Man]

Just now, SnowDreamer said:

Control looks like a solid setup, already 6-12" in VA and slp is still south of the VA/NC border @144. 

 

Wow wow wow and plenty to go

[DownpourDave]

1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

If it went out to 168, it'd be a HUGE hit. There's also 0c 850s almost right down to the LP. 

your not kidding. DC was about to get destroyed.

 

 

 

[SnowDreamer]

Look at that comma head tapping moisture out of the gulf. Love to see this! (Control)

eta: Heyo! 100th post 

 

[Anyweather]

Are there any indications of a crawl up the coast? 18z eps, wise  

 

[SnowGolfBro]

2 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

Look at that comma head tapping moisture out of the gulf. Love to see this! (Control)

eta: Heyo! 100th post 

 

That comma head will drop a foot of snow in less than 10 hours on those lucky enough to cash in.  December 2009 had a similar feature if i remember correctly

[SnowDreamer]

Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

That comma head will drop a foot of snow in less than 10 hours on those lucky enough to cash in.  December 2009 had a similar feature if i remember correctly

It's a common feature in our bigguns once the LP really starts dropping. 

[Heisy]

Just now, Anyweather said:

Are there any indications of a crawl up the coast? 18z eps, wise  

 

This will continue to be the main question. Phased storms are not modeled well imo. I live in Philly but will chase wherever it falls so I have no skin in the game, but I’d feel very good if I lived in N VA right now.

[Heisy]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Control looks like its moving due north at 144 ...slowly 

Can you post an H5?

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

This will continue to be the main question. Phased storms are not modeled well imo. I live in Philly but will chase wherever it falls so I have no skin in the game, but I’d feel very good if I lived in N VA right now.

I'd be feeling decent between I-66 and PA Route 30 for a warning level event right now. Set your expectations low since this is a Miller B in a La Nina. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[WxUSAF]

500mb comparison to 12z that @Wentzadelphia posted elsewhere looks to me like the 18z EPS is more likely to capture the surface low and get a stall and stack. Northern stream energy is diving into our main low at 144hrs and the whole trough is deeper with more ridging ahead of it over the Atlantic. Pretty amazing to see this on a D6 mean. 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

500mb comparison to 12z that @Wentzadelphia posted elsewhere looks to me like the 18z EPS is more likely to capture the surface low and get a stall and stack. Northern stream energy is diving into our main low at 144hrs and the whole trough is deeper with more ridging ahead of it over the Atlantic. Pretty amazing to see this on a D6 mean. 

Is that good?

[RichmondTarHeel]

Any of y’all coming to Richmond to snow chase this one? 

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

If that doesn't bring @Bob Chill out to play, nothing will.

[Heisy]

3 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

 

Hmm, idk what to think. Almost looks like it missed the 12z euro phase with that energy up near the lakes. That’s a good sign that you guys are killing it even without that happening. Hard for me to know for sure though. The phase impacts Philly and SNE more anyway you guys can do well with this one even without that happening. It’s still only hour 144 though so who knows. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Control looks like its moving due north at 144 ...slowly 

The h5 is swinging too far south. I doubt it gets much further north. You can ignore me but I’m not liking the trend south on 5 consecutive eps runs now. We’re out of any wiggle room. There are too many southern misses for my liking in the 18z eps members.   

[SnowDreamer]

2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Hmm, idk what to think. Almost looks like it missed the 12z euro phase with that energy up near the lakes. That’s a good sign that you guys are killing it even without that happening. Hard for me to know for sure though. The phase impacts Philly and SNE more anyway you guys can do well with this one even without that happening. 

The 12Z OP has started phasing with that bit of energy by then and 18Z Control hasn't, but I think the control is just a little slower judging from the ULL and the SLP position. I think it might still get to about the same place. Something to watch for in the 00Z run. 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Yes. 

And flooding was historic . Susquehanna and Potomac I think 

Lewisburg, PA got blasted by some sort of inverted trough or the like later in the week following the ‘96 blizzard - I think we got even more from that than from the first one. Snow banks were out of control and I remember walking into my fraternity house in waist-deep snow. Folks were clearing their roofs all around town for fear of collapse from the snow.

We flooded really good a couple weeks later, then things refroze pretty quick (if I recall correctly).

[Eskimo Joe]

If I had to be critical, I'd like to see the western ridge be further displayed to the west and the primary low close off at 500mb a few hours earlier and go a bit more negative.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

Any of y’all coming to Richmond to snow chase this one? 

Don’t joke like that...seriously don’t tempt fate. I could see this plastering southern VA in this pattern. 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The h5 is swinging too far south. I doubt it gets much further north. You can ignore me but I’m not liking the trend south on 5 consecutive eps runs now. We’re out of any wiggle room. There are too many southern misses for my liking in the 18z eps members.   

Is that not good?

[ryanconway63]

Im in Northern Neck of VA if anybody wants to chase here.....

[anotherman]

The h5 is swinging too far south. I doubt it gets much further north. You can ignore me but I’m not liking the trend south on 5 consecutive eps runs now. We’re out of any wiggle room. There are too many southern misses for my liking in the 18z eps members.   

Come on....I don’t think we’re to that point yet.

[chris21]

3 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

Im in Northern Neck of VA if anybody wants to chase here.....

We’re still a bit far off for chasing talk.

[Anyweather]

12 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

Any of y’all coming to Richmond to snow chase this one? 

If folks head this way, keep in mind it’s been 2 years without snow and people here can’t drive in it anyway.

[ers-wxman1]

13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The 500mb pattern depicted on the ENS is close to something big but not quite there yet. The best look the Mid Atlantic has had in two years, but ideally we need the western ridge more amplified and further west with the 500 low deepening and closed as it passes south of us and off the coast. Tilt going more negative and a phase to cutoff and keep the CCB going. It’s close, but not quite there yet. Fortunately we have cold high pressure over southern Canada vs that upper low which suppressed the Thursday system. 
Given trends this year, if we continue to see the ECMWF holding the pattern into 72 hours from onset with the ukmet and icon following along we will be in a favorable trend. These models have been consistent in showing the suppression patterns, more conservative. Coastal transfer time and deepening is crucial with Miller B type systems. If the Midwest low is too strong the transfer gets delayed and not favorable per GFS.  Hoping for a win for this forum. But, let’s also keep in mind that the pieces to the puzzle are all being simulated at various points...some outside the U.S. so swings and uncertainty will be factors this far out. I think by Thursday there should be much better consistency and a better picture of where we are headed with this.  Just my two cents.

ERS