BristowWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 How much snow is a BECS? Have we established that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: No doubt. Under forecast is always the safe bet. But some people were convinced it would be under a foot which was too far under. East of I-95 would've busted low had the CCB not been so beefy. I remember the justified gnashing of teeth for the Annapolis and St. Mary's crew on Saturday when the sun was poking out while the usual crew was jackpotting. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 That 2016 storm was too stressful. It locked in way too soon which meant 8 days of model runs worrying was the rug getting pulled. I’d rather something we’re keeping an eye on trend better closer in. But guidance has become really good inside day 5 now. Not saying things don’t shift and details don’t change but if something doesn’t at least look promising at day 5 it’s harder for it to become a hecs then in the past. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I remember 2016 Harrisburg was forecast to get like 6 inches up to maybe 30 hours or 24 hours out and broke there alltime record with like 30" If the storm is amplifying and gaining latitude the northern extent of heavy snow will always be under represented. This doesn’t work if a storm is shearing out or sinking south/not gaining latitude. But with an amplified wave gaining latitude always adjust the northern edge north at the end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 41 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I'm actually going to your neck of the woods early (this saturday) to be there for this storm. I'm going with climo. I think we'll be in a sweet spot. There is always secondary banding on the periphery. EZF isn't jacking lol Come on out for a pregame stout- fest around my firepit. Bring Clskinsfan and Winterwxluvr with you. Lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Just looked at the Euro completely ( I know late to the party) but it literally starts Sunday evening and doesn't taper off till Tuesday evening Even though it’s farther north gfs was long duration too. It’s definitely a legit signal hard to ignore. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I remember 2016 Harrisburg was forecast to get like 6 inches up to maybe 30 hours or 24 hours out and broke there alltime record with like 30" If I remember correctly, which I may not be, the Nam had the handle on this one in showing a more Northern extent to the extreme snow. But for some of those PA areas this was on the level of the Jan 2000 surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 19 minutes ago, BristowWx said: How much snow is a BECS? Have we established that? More than HECS but less than a ZJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 20 minutes ago, BristowWx said: How much snow is a BECS? Have we established that? Based on the last 2 years it’s 2 inches 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: More than HECS but less than a ZJ The Euro was epic for us. Best I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 One step away from Enhanced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 All I know is...this was the 108hr GEFS for our Thursday event. With a mean over 7”. I don’t care what they show until they prove us otherwise. What’s that word...TREND 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Just looked at the Euro completely ( I know late to the party) but it literally starts Sunday evening and doesn't taper off till Tuesday evening We wake up two mornings in a row with the same weather. Think that's fitting for a groundhog day blizzard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: One step away from Enhanced This irritates me. This is not a low-tier potential impact storm. If the point of this matrix is to actually show potential impact, it's at LEAST mid-tier. Euro not withstanding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 One step away from Enhanced Well, tbh, it’s also one step away from “none”. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Amped said: We wake up two mornings in a row with the same weather. Think that's fitting for a groundhog day blizzard. 1996 redux Hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Amped said: We wake up two mornings in a row with the same weather. Think that's fitting for a groundhog day blizzard. 1996. Started on a Saturday evening. I remember watching the weather channel radar with the snow creeping north so slowly. Woke up on Sunday morning to Heavy snow. Snowed all day. Woke up Monday morning and still snowing thanks to a perfect upper level pass. What a perfect storm. Ended up with over 30" in Northern Fredrick county MD. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 My favorite winter weekend of all time. Stayed up with TWC all night. Drank Coronas and ate chocolate chip cookies. Airport here at RIC said we got like 11", I measured 21" at my apartment. Ah, memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Did the 18z euro that goes up to 90 hours give any clues. How does it compare to 12z euro at 96 hours. More Suppression in the NE? less? Shortwave out west more amplified or less? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 18Z H5 and SLP vs 12Z - I'll save any prognosticating for the more experienced among us 18Z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: This irritates me. This is not a low-tier potential impact storm. If the point of this matrix is to actually show potential impact, it's at LEAST mid-tier. Euro not withstanding Just because one model shows an historical storm doesn’t mean they should elevate it risk any higher. What happens tonight if it disappears. The general population uses these graphics and you cannot have wild swings on them based on one model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I feel like that is one of those find the differences comparisons- identical through 90 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 ^^^hard to find major differences on the 18z Euro. EPS will be out soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 41 minutes ago, BristowWx said: How much snow is a BECS? Have we established that? I think in Washington DC proper, it's this... Maybe a tad different in Baltimore and suburbs north and west SECS -- 4 to 12 MECS -- 12 to 18 HECS 18 to 30 BECS 30 Plus 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Interstate said: Just because one model shows an historical storm doesn’t mean they should elevate it risk any higher. What happens tonight if it disappears. The general population uses these graphics and you cannot have wild swings on them based on one model run. I totally agree that you can't have wild model swings in a forecast based on 1 run, but the graphic clearly states *potential* impact. The GEM, GFS, PARA all show ~6" for D.C. and the EURO is back-to-back 12"+. I personally wouldn't classify that potential as low, and I don't think I'm alone in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Imo anything double digits is a MECS . So 10" slant stick counts 40 inches is a Coastal BECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, Chris78 said: 1996. Started on a Saturday evening. I remember watching the weather channel radar with the snow creeping north so slowly. Woke up on Sunday morning to Heavy snow. Snowed all day. Woke up Monday morning and still snowing thanks to a perfect upper level pass. What a perfect storm. Ended up with over 30" in Northern Fredrick county MD. Yep. Started around 8 pm. Waited until there was 2 or 3 inches on the ground and a group of us, including my 6 year old son, hit the sledding slopes around midnight and sled til 2 am in the increasing snow. Watched the snow pile up all day Sunday while the Cowboys clobbered the eagles to advance to the NFC title game. Sunday night we headed out in my roommates truck and we pulled sleds down an empty 522 south of front royal. The plowed snow banks were nearly head height already and it was like being on a luge. I was told we hit 50 mph on the sleds at one point. It was one of the funnest times of my life. It snowed the next day into lunchtime. Measured 37" in town. Feels like a dream now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Imo anything double digits is a MECS . So 10" slant stick counts Yeah 12 should be a MECS I would have the SECS at 4-8, MECS at 8-14, HECS at 14-24, and BECS at 24+ but I don’t make the rules...who does? Ji? DT? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 And w the 96 storm, many of us had a follow up snowfall later that week before the big flooding. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, snowfan said: And w the 96 storm, many of us had a follow up snowfall later that week before the big flooding. Yeah. I recall that Fairfax had around 24" with the 1st round and about 12" a few days later. Having close to 3 feet was definitely memorable, and I remember the flooding as well. Couldn't even get anywhere around the beltway. Jan 2016 was the biggest snowfall I've seen from one storm. I had 30" at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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