Sernest14 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I feel like that is one of those find the differences comparisons- identical through 90 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 ^^^hard to find major differences on the 18z Euro. EPS will be out soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 41 minutes ago, BristowWx said: How much snow is a BECS? Have we established that? I think in Washington DC proper, it's this... Maybe a tad different in Baltimore and suburbs north and west SECS -- 4 to 12 MECS -- 12 to 18 HECS 18 to 30 BECS 30 Plus 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Interstate said: Just because one model shows an historical storm doesn’t mean they should elevate it risk any higher. What happens tonight if it disappears. The general population uses these graphics and you cannot have wild swings on them based on one model run. I totally agree that you can't have wild model swings in a forecast based on 1 run, but the graphic clearly states *potential* impact. The GEM, GFS, PARA all show ~6" for D.C. and the EURO is back-to-back 12"+. I personally wouldn't classify that potential as low, and I don't think I'm alone in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Imo anything double digits is a MECS . So 10" slant stick counts 40 inches is a Coastal BECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, Chris78 said: 1996. Started on a Saturday evening. I remember watching the weather channel radar with the snow creeping north so slowly. Woke up on Sunday morning to Heavy snow. Snowed all day. Woke up Monday morning and still snowing thanks to a perfect upper level pass. What a perfect storm. Ended up with over 30" in Northern Fredrick county MD. Yep. Started around 8 pm. Waited until there was 2 or 3 inches on the ground and a group of us, including my 6 year old son, hit the sledding slopes around midnight and sled til 2 am in the increasing snow. Watched the snow pile up all day Sunday while the Cowboys clobbered the eagles to advance to the NFC title game. Sunday night we headed out in my roommates truck and we pulled sleds down an empty 522 south of front royal. The plowed snow banks were nearly head height already and it was like being on a luge. I was told we hit 50 mph on the sleds at one point. It was one of the funnest times of my life. It snowed the next day into lunchtime. Measured 37" in town. Feels like a dream now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Imo anything double digits is a MECS . So 10" slant stick counts Yeah 12 should be a MECS I would have the SECS at 4-8, MECS at 8-14, HECS at 14-24, and BECS at 24+ but I don’t make the rules...who does? Ji? DT? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 And w the 96 storm, many of us had a follow up snowfall later that week before the big flooding. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, snowfan said: And w the 96 storm, many of us had a follow up snowfall later that week before the big flooding. Yeah. I recall that Fairfax had around 24" with the 1st round and about 12" a few days later. Having close to 3 feet was definitely memorable, and I remember the flooding as well. Couldn't even get anywhere around the beltway. Jan 2016 was the biggest snowfall I've seen from one storm. I had 30" at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 15 minutes ago, nj2va said: ^^^hard to find major differences on the 18z Euro. EPS will be out soon. It’s uncanny how exactly the same those are. Wow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Not bad . Widespread area then I pretty much agree Maybe bump BECS to 30+ widespread I thought about that but how often does that happen? Even at your yard. 30+ is just a tough milestone. I’ll take the HECS with a side of SECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 BTW, looking at the Euro our vort is onshore within 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Confluence relaxing a bit on 18z Eps at 108. SW a touch stronger EPS is beautiful look at this h5. OMG 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Woof 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 On the subject of categorizing storms, 4-6 or anything with a verified warning a to me is significant so: SECS. MECS I’d say 8-16. 16-24 HECS. BECS 24 plus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Closed 500 ensemble mean again. Wooooooooof. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Woof Almost perfect location imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 hours ago, Solution Man said: Actually moving back to the area again this Summer. My agency is reposting me again Glad to be getting you back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Western ridge is sharper on the 18z Euro through HR 90. A good sign. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Remember when there was 12 hours in between the Euro runs? I know the 0Z and 18 z are not as good, but it helps to have a little something in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: Glad to be getting you back! Thanks brother 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Nice progression 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Pretty much as good as a signal as you can get at this lead time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, SnowLover22 said: Pretty much as good as a signal as you can get at this lead time. We want it to be showing an 880 mb mean not a 1002 mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 That144 500 EPS map is straight up gorgeous. Perfect position for us with the cold that is being advertised. It appears I am going to be dropping hundreds of weenies on posts over the next few days. Ridiculous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The 500mb progression on the 18z Euro is textbook for a warning level event at DCA, IAD, and BWI. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 20 minutes ago, snowfan said: And w the 96 storm, many of us had a follow up snowfall later that week before the big flooding. Some of us had two follow-up snowfalls. That Friday was another synoptic snowstorm, but there was a vort that Tuesday afternoon that put down a band of heavy snow across DC and the east side of town. I got another 6" out of that unexpected event. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I'm starting to feel pretty good about this. Those ensembles are a beaut! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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