SnowDreamer Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I recall the 2016 storm was one of the easiest forecasts I ever made. It was pretty solid from a week out and never really budged, although I think we all expected it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, SnowDreamer said: I recall the 2016 storm was one of the easiest forecasts I ever made. It was pretty solid from a week out and never really budged, although I think we all expected it to. There was indeed a fairly strong pushback from people on the forecasts...forecasts which ended up being underdone for most. I was told by one client that it never snows 30" in Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Trying to remember when the euro locked in on that March 2018 storm. As far as I remember, the actual costal feature of that storm was found pretty far in, maybe like 3-4 days beforehand. Before that the WAA was looking like the main event, and it continued to trend warmer, putting DC out of the game before the costal part got latched onto. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: The euro was mostly a rock. The GFS was all over the place. Especially close in I recall the euro kept putting those insane amounts in N VA around 180 hours out. It may have had a run or 2 where it was south because I remember sitting here in Philly worrying about being fringed a few times, but over and over the signal was there for ccb snows in that region. Wasn’t until the NAM came in range that snow chances increased into Philly burbs and nyc...this is two euro runs in a row with a heavy area over N VA let’s start a trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: There was indeed a fairly strong pushback from people on the forecasts...forecasts which ended up being underdone for most. I was told by one client that it never snows 30" in Virginia. We've had the rug pulled out from under us so many times that it's wise to under forecast snow. Especially outside of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, Scraff said: In my untrained non meteorologist opinion (shocking I know), we seem to be settling in on a decent snow event. The only thing that needs to be worked out in the coming days is if we’re getting SECS, MECS, HECS, BECS, or TEXMEX. I’ll see myself out now. Don't forget the CECS (Catastrophic East Coast Storm) - arguably before or after BECS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: We've had the rug pulled out from under us so many times that it's wise to under forecast snow. Especially outside of the mountains. No doubt. Under forecast is always the safe bet. But some people were convinced it would be under a foot which was too far under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 10 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Were all the models on board with that one 8 days out? I am trying to remember. I do remember some sick snow maps. But still not the Euro 12z 26 Jan...that was next level I distinctly remember checking the discussion and model pbp in here the Saturday afternoon before the storm hit (about 7-8 days out). At that time it was clear a significant storm was in the offing and it seemed like all major models "snapped in place." Thereafter it was a matter of various details... Would it be a top HECS, would we mix for a time etc. But it was clear at least a significant snow event was there. Of course that was a Nino and STJ on roids and a perfectly placed block so the setup was very clear-cut as was the models' handling of that. ETA: @Deck Pic pretty well stated it, especially concerning the Euro. I thought the GFS/GEFS did well starting early on too but that could be incorrect recollection on my part. There was also a wacky 00Z Euro run right the night before that cut precip amounts for some reason, which momentarily caused alarm I seem to recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: There was indeed a fairly strong pushback from people on the forecasts...forecasts which ended up being underdone for most. I was told by one client that it never snows 30" in Virginia. I believe it! I just meant that the models didn't offer much alternative to the forecast. No real choice on which "camp" to pick. Obviously I'm not going to say it'll snow 24" when the storm is 5 days away, but every day we got closer and the big runs just kept coming. This is opposed to most of our storms where we wait for a camp to cave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 How much snow is a BECS? Have we established that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: No doubt. Under forecast is always the safe bet. But some people were convinced it would be under a foot which was too far under. East of I-95 would've busted low had the CCB not been so beefy. I remember the justified gnashing of teeth for the Annapolis and St. Mary's crew on Saturday when the sun was poking out while the usual crew was jackpotting. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 That 2016 storm was too stressful. It locked in way too soon which meant 8 days of model runs worrying was the rug getting pulled. I’d rather something we’re keeping an eye on trend better closer in. But guidance has become really good inside day 5 now. Not saying things don’t shift and details don’t change but if something doesn’t at least look promising at day 5 it’s harder for it to become a hecs then in the past. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I remember 2016 Harrisburg was forecast to get like 6 inches up to maybe 30 hours or 24 hours out and broke there alltime record with like 30" If the storm is amplifying and gaining latitude the northern extent of heavy snow will always be under represented. This doesn’t work if a storm is shearing out or sinking south/not gaining latitude. But with an amplified wave gaining latitude always adjust the northern edge north at the end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 41 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I'm actually going to your neck of the woods early (this saturday) to be there for this storm. I'm going with climo. I think we'll be in a sweet spot. There is always secondary banding on the periphery. EZF isn't jacking lol Come on out for a pregame stout- fest around my firepit. Bring Clskinsfan and Winterwxluvr with you. Lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Just looked at the Euro completely ( I know late to the party) but it literally starts Sunday evening and doesn't taper off till Tuesday evening Even though it’s farther north gfs was long duration too. It’s definitely a legit signal hard to ignore. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I remember 2016 Harrisburg was forecast to get like 6 inches up to maybe 30 hours or 24 hours out and broke there alltime record with like 30" If I remember correctly, which I may not be, the Nam had the handle on this one in showing a more Northern extent to the extreme snow. But for some of those PA areas this was on the level of the Jan 2000 surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 19 minutes ago, BristowWx said: How much snow is a BECS? Have we established that? More than HECS but less than a ZJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 20 minutes ago, BristowWx said: How much snow is a BECS? Have we established that? Based on the last 2 years it’s 2 inches 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: More than HECS but less than a ZJ The Euro was epic for us. Best I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 One step away from Enhanced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 All I know is...this was the 108hr GEFS for our Thursday event. With a mean over 7”. I don’t care what they show until they prove us otherwise. What’s that word...TREND 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Just looked at the Euro completely ( I know late to the party) but it literally starts Sunday evening and doesn't taper off till Tuesday evening We wake up two mornings in a row with the same weather. Think that's fitting for a groundhog day blizzard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: One step away from Enhanced This irritates me. This is not a low-tier potential impact storm. If the point of this matrix is to actually show potential impact, it's at LEAST mid-tier. Euro not withstanding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 One step away from Enhanced Well, tbh, it’s also one step away from “none”. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Amped said: We wake up two mornings in a row with the same weather. Think that's fitting for a groundhog day blizzard. 1996 redux Hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Amped said: We wake up two mornings in a row with the same weather. Think that's fitting for a groundhog day blizzard. 1996. Started on a Saturday evening. I remember watching the weather channel radar with the snow creeping north so slowly. Woke up on Sunday morning to Heavy snow. Snowed all day. Woke up Monday morning and still snowing thanks to a perfect upper level pass. What a perfect storm. Ended up with over 30" in Northern Fredrick county MD. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 My favorite winter weekend of all time. Stayed up with TWC all night. Drank Coronas and ate chocolate chip cookies. Airport here at RIC said we got like 11", I measured 21" at my apartment. Ah, memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Did the 18z euro that goes up to 90 hours give any clues. How does it compare to 12z euro at 96 hours. More Suppression in the NE? less? Shortwave out west more amplified or less? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 18Z H5 and SLP vs 12Z - I'll save any prognosticating for the more experienced among us 18Z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: This irritates me. This is not a low-tier potential impact storm. If the point of this matrix is to actually show potential impact, it's at LEAST mid-tier. Euro not withstanding Just because one model shows an historical storm doesn’t mean they should elevate it risk any higher. What happens tonight if it disappears. The general population uses these graphics and you cannot have wild swings on them based on one model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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