jaydreb Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 18z GEFS starting to pop a few lows in better spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ji said: did anyone look at the 12z gfs past this storm. lol..very wintry and cold. What happened to the warm Feb? So no warmth and big lakes cutters? Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: What are you saying? Can you be more emphatic or clear? Jesus Mary and Joseph Sorry I can break it down This Run Eased Nearer Direction 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ji said: do you see anything that would cause the euro to shift dramatically? besides are climo, bad luck, our magic in avoiding snow and having a "Jonah" on this forum? No so if we fail you should definitely be sacrificed 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 This seems appropriate for right now. 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 26 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: Your kind of disaster or 3-6" disaster? 29 minutes ago, Ji said: man the para is a disaster again. What is going on here? Para is a 6 to 14" disaster from SE to NW lol. Looks damn good to me lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 this did improve 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 This seems appropriate for right now.I remember seeing this a few years ago. I feel like the gfs and nam can easily switch seats here. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Sorry I can break it down This Run Eased Nearer Direction Let me help .. This moRon irritatEs Nearly everyboDy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 @Ji you know there are always things that could go wrong. I guess the most obvious is the flow over the NE doesn’t relax enough and the WAA wave gets suppressed then the coastal develops too slow. Secondary development is always tricky. But this has a lot more going for it then against it. BTW word of advice. Don’t set your bar at hecs. But also when evaluating the setup each run weight the guidance according to their results and performance. Euro/Eps is the baseline. Then adjust using other guidance but don’t over weight the gfs. It shouldn’t get any more weight (frankly less) that most of the other ancillary guidance available. We way over weight it because of its prevalence. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Assuming this can somehow rival 2016, did the Euro lead the way on that one? And at what point did euro and GFS both go mega solutions together? 90 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Ji you know there are always things that could go wrong. This is where he stopped reading 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 18z snow mean.. Compared to 12z.. Precip for these panels sucks to compare because it's only 24 hour intervals on WxBell, but the snow mean should suffice There's a word for this but I can't seem to find it... anyone? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ji said: this did improve Next maybe your posts... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 7 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Assuming this can somehow rival 2016, did the Euro lead the way on that one? And at what point did euro and GFS both go mega solutions together? 90 hours out? Euro saw the storm as soon as it came in day 10 range. It was iffy on temps for a couple runs though. But it was pretty locked in on the general setup and track from day 10 all the way in. Had one hiccup run that gave us northerners a scare but that was it. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Para is still thumpy with the waa. Gets the precip in way quicker than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I like the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 No politics. This is your only warning. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 17 minutes ago, Cobalt said: 18z snow mean.. Compared to 12z.. Precip for these panels sucks to compare because it's only 24 hour intervals on WxBell, but the snow mean should suffice There's a word for this but I can't seem to find it... anyone? What’s it start with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I would actually feel better being east with this one if you want to get into the CCB. Watch the progression on the GFS. If that ends up the worst case scenario DC still gets into the coastal when it gets tugged west. If the GFS jumps just a couple of hours sooner and a little further south it is a complete beatdown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: I'm actually going to your neck of the woods early (this saturday) to be there for this storm. I'm going with climo. I think we'll be in a sweet spot. There is always secondary banding on the periphery. EZF isn't jacking lol We will get the better ratio's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 18z Euro runs to 120 or 90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: 18z Euro runs to 120 or 90? 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 18z Euro runs to 120 or 90? 90 but EPS to 144. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 18z Euro runs to 120 or 90? Think the 18z EPS is 144...ninja-ed...I can’t win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: Think the 18z EPS is 144 correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, SnowDreamer said: correct Jaydreb called it first..he wins..he always wins..he’s a winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 For those of you trying to remember how the model runs in the lead up to 1/2016 looked, this forecast review article from the CWG has links to their articles starting from 8 days before the storm. There are quite a few individual model runs referenced throughout: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/25/the-forecast-for-snowzilla-was-stellar-in-almost-every-way/ 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Were all the models on board with that one 8 days out? I am trying to remember. I do remember some sick snow maps. But still not the Euro 12z 26 Jan...that was next level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Despite this discrete setup, I think we'll see more oscillation in the models than 2016. Globals don't handle La Nina as well. Trying to remember when the euro locked in on that March 2018 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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