psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I used to use it a lot. This is a special occasion. I'll allow it. what did I miss? @Ji that’s the toll that must be paid. To get a big amplification we need the blocking to relax but that means the wave isn’t going to get trapped as a 50/50 and the next wave is likely a cutter. If we’re lucky we get enough CAD to avoid a total washout. Maybe if it comes out in weaker pieces... The blocking looks to reload pretty quickly after. 1 hour ago, Ji said: how do we get this to trend south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 43 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: You just noticed this trend this winter only? In all seriousness that is how the models generally work every year. Outlandish solutions possible at long leads, slowly figuring out the details as we get closer and then fine tuning closer in. That's not a unique thing to this year. Or for this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 18z ICON has snow starting early afternoon Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 We need to keep our wits about us as we go into GFS HH. Drink now...right now before it’s too late for all that is holy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 GFS still not as strong/SW as the Euro in the Northeast. Slightly better tho than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 if you aren't paywalled, this CWG article has some model outputs from 90+ hours out. there was agreement. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/20/how-much-snow-are-local-forecasters-and-computer-models-predicting/Copy the link and paste it into incognito mode on Android. It works without payment Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: GFS still not as strong/SW as the Euro in the Northeast. Slightly better tho than 12z A little better confluence if anything @84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Confluence looks a bit better over the Northeast on Saturday compared to 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treyfish Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 hours ago, H2O said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 confluence looking better than the past 2 runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Confluence looks a bit better over the Northeast on Saturday compared to 12z. That trend continues at 96. That’s what I’m most interested in at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Confluence is better, but nothing like Euro. Just gotta hope the GFS is doing what it did last time...underdoing it and strengthened as we get closer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Confluence is better, but nothing like Euro. Just gotta hope the GFS is doing what it did last time...underdoing it and strengthened as we get closer gfs is going to stubborn its way into the euro(hopefully). It may take a few more runs that we would like 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Primary is souther a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 GFS has snow on us at 114. Euro at like 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Definitely a step in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: gfs is going to stubborn its way into the euro(hopefully). It may take a few more runs that we would like JI I really believe GFS comes around to the other models, namely the Euro. Each run the confluence gets just a tick better and better. Heavy snows breaking out down my way at 108/114 headed your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 gfs tricking south like a slow drip but lost the silly snow to rain idea on the front end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Buddy1987 said: JI I really believe GFS comes around to the other models, namely the Euro. Each run the confluence gets just a tick better and better. Heavy snows breaking out down my way at 108/114 headed your way. It's moving toward that point. At least it didn't get any worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Ji said: gfs tricking south like a slow drip but lost the silly snow to rain idea on the front end you sure about that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 GFS has 4-6" from the WAA alone, with more to the North of us as the costal gets cranking. Def a step in the right direction, this feels like Saturday's trends for the Thursday event where the GFS slowly sank SE but we had that glimmer of hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 GOOFUS IS GOOFUS, far to slow with the coastal transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 GFS is a step in the right direction both aloft and at the surface. Nothing earth shattering but it's good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Not to beat a dead horse but it took another step south (continues the trend of the last several runs). That's all I wanted to see from it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: GFS has 4-6" from the WAA alone, with more to the North of us as the costal gets cranking. Def a step in the right direction, this feels like Saturday's trends for the Thursday event where the GFS slowly sank SE but we had that glimmer of hope Last 3 GFS runs the system has sank south . A couple more ticks and we will be In the coastal once it gets cranking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I feel like the GFS chased the convection off of the NC coast on this run. You would think the low transfer would happen closer to the benchmark based off H5. Euro depiction makes more sense at the moment. A lot of time here for this to resolve itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 GFS has snow on us at 114. Euro at like 138GFS is on to something. Dry slot that isSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 man the para is a disaster again. What is going on here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said: I feel like the GFS chased the convection off of the NC coast on this run. You would think the low transfer would happen closer to the benchmark based off H5. Euro depiction makes more sense at the moment. A lot of time here for this to resolve itself. Yep, just wanted to see the slow evolution in the right direction. It’s starting to follow the King Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: I feel like the GFS chased the convection off of the NC coast on this run. You would think the low transfer would happen closer to the benchmark based off H5. Euro depiction makes more sense at the moment. A lot of time here for this to resolve itself. I really want to believe that a run that shows 24” in mby makes more sense than a run that shows 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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