Weather Will Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 WB GFS, what I said was that the GFS has been consistently showing freezing rain for Monday and all over the place for the next Tues. Wed. Wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 18z EPS at 132 Compared to 18z GEFS at 132 Spot the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB GFS, what I said was that the GFS has been consistently showing freezing rain for Monday and all over the place for the next Tues. Wed. Wave. Now hang on. The storm that we are all talking about is the storm for Tuesday. Let’s keep the debate fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: 18z EPS at 132 Compared to 18z GEFS at 132 Spot the difference Hmmm. Let me see if I can find it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps stronger with the ssw energy at 144 . All looks decent to me Looks pretty healthy on the control 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps stronger with the ssw energy at 144 . All looks decent to me Not even a single member like the GFS or many of the GEFS members. That pretty stark, even at D6 range. It looks a lot like EPS has already for the last 2 days at least. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Now hang on. The storm that we are all talking about is the storm for Tuesday. Let’s keep the debate fair. I thought how the models handle the first wave will effect the track/strength of the second wave. I am enjoying the discourse. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: I thought how the models handle the first wave will effect the track/strength of the second wave. I am enjoying the discourse. Thanks. It does. But we are talking about consistency of models and number of models that support the Tuesday storm. The gfs is alone is all that I’m saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Well maybe the GFS will cave at 1030 so everyone won’t be panicking for the 130 EURO... good thing I’m off tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 12 minutes ago, Cobalt said: 18z EPS at 132 Compared to 18z GEFS at 132 Spot the difference OMG when I first glanced at that before reading I thought the bottom image was the 144 EPS and was like CRAP then saw what you did. Don’t scare me like that. We need a freaking snowstorm so bad. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Well maybe the GFS will cave at 1030 so everyone won’t be panicking for the 130 EURO... good thing I’m off tomorrow. Will you be able to post probability maps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: More maps ...yay. Eps Pwats you can see surging nne into the system towards our general direction. I always blush when I see the see the word pwats 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Well maybe the GFS will cave at 1030 so everyone won’t be panicking for the 130 EURO... good thing I’m off tomorrow. I won’t be around to see either one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Ok I’ll be the bad guy and say it...didn’t like the Icon at all. Way too GFS like. Northern wave too strong and wrecks the thermals and no separation to recover for the 2nd wave. Maybe some pity flakes at the end but that was not a progression with much upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Ok I’ll be the bad guy and say it...didn’t like the Icon at all. Way too GFS like. Northern wave too strong and wrecks the thermals and no separation to recover for the 2nd wave. Maybe some pity flakes at the end but that was not a progression with much upside. Icon 2nd wave was way more south than 12z. thats going to be snow in future runs unless it goes south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: Icon 2nd wave was way more south than 12z. thats going to be snow in future runs unless it goes south If the NS wave holds together like the gfs/Icon show the southern wave is irrelevant. The NS wave that comes across in front of it wrecks the temps and there isn’t enough separation to recover. ETA; we would need the southern wave to slow down and allow cold to press behind the NS. Possible but we’re starting to get close enough that major changes need to happen sooner v later. The easier path here is less ridging and therefore a weaker NS wave like euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: If the NS wave holds together like the gfs/Icon show the southern wave is irrelevant. The NS wave that comes across in front of it wrecks the temps and there isn’t enough separation to recover. i heard none of the EPS had it so i wouldnt worry about it...... till 1:14am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: i heard none of the EPS had it so i wouldnt worry about it...... till 1:14am We’ll know before then. If the gfs holds and cmc and UK (it will be within range tonight) joins the gfs/Icon solution we know. The euro would then be on an island and we know how that ends. If the Cmc/UK look like the euro then it’s probably the gfs and Icon on a tangent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok I’ll be the bad guy and say it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 the icon gets alot of press because its on TT and has precip maps but its a lousy model from what i have seen. Its constanly spits out solutions that never happen...it will be stubborn for runs and runs and all of the sudden just cave. I trust the JMA more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Gfs is a baby step weaker with that NS wave v 18z but still WAY WAY WAY more ridge in front then the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, Ji said: the icon gets alot of press because its on TT and has precip maps but its a lousy model from what i have seen. Its constanly spits out solutions that never happen...it will be stubborn for runs and runs and all of the sudden just cave. I trust the JMA more I’m just doing play by play not picking winners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 @Ji it’s still about that TPV west of Hudson Bay. The GFS is elongating a piece of it and phasing a bit with the western trough which pumps ridging ahead of it. The euro is not and actually is elongating that tpv to the southeast which compresses the flow over top and prevents ridging ahead of the wave. The crazy thing is the difference in that feature diverges at only like 96 hours and it’s a pretty major longwave feature that one of them is handling completely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: @Ji it’s still about that TPV west of Hudson Bay. The GFS is elongating a piece of it and phasing a bit with the western trough which pumps ridging ahead of it. The euro is not and actually is elongating that tpv to the southeast which compresses the flow over top and prevents ridging ahead of the wave. The crazy thing is the difference in that feature diverges at only like 96 hours and it’s a pretty major longwave feature that one of them is handling completely wrong. when is the GFS going to cave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 It’s pretty much gone. Pushed way south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 GFS is a utter disaster. Geez 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 everyone rushing to pivitol now lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, Ji said: when is the GFS going to cave? Funny thing is it did at 6/12z and everyone kinda figured the fight was over but then it reverted at 18z and now has a buddy in the Icon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Pretty stark differences between the euro and gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It’s pretty much gone. Pushed way south That’s because of the NS. Gfs still dropping too much energy from the TPV in western Canada into the western trough. That pumps ridging ahead of it and so the result is the NS wave on top can amplify. That becomes the show. The southern wave has no chance with an amplifying NS wave right on top and in front of it. The euro handles that tpv different. Elongates it down on top and squashed the NS wave. With that wave eliminated the southern stream wave has room to amplify. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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