SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: That's correct. 12z Thursday should set the table to see if this is real or a mirage. Hell, even the NAM will start sniffing it out by then. No use in getting wound up now because the Euro could be (and seems like) a fluke IMO. Something that crazy has to be viewed with a huge dose of skepticism. Yeah, I'm excited like everyone else here, but after getting the football yanked way too many times this winter....imma wait. I agree with this but I'd say we're getting close to the point where it would be surprising if there wasn't *some* snow for us on Monday/Tuesday. Will it be a big dog? Hopefully, but as you said too early to get fully on that train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: That's correct. 12z Thursday should set the table to see if this is real or a mirage. Hell, even the NAM will start sniffing it out by then. No use in getting wound up now because the Euro could be (and seems like) a fluke IMO. Something that crazy has to be viewed with a huge dose of skepticism. Yeah, I'm excited like everyone else here, but after getting the football yanked way too many times this winter....imma wait. Thx Debbie... that was fun for 1 hour though....you gotta admit. I'm playin around cause the potential and setup look better, but reality doesnt always see it that way, so I'm just savoring the moment and hoping for more moments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: did every model have the Jan 2016 blockbuster 4 days out(where we are now)---i dont remember. if you aren't paywalled, this CWG article has some model outputs from 90+ hours out. there was agreement. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/20/how-much-snow-are-local-forecasters-and-computer-models-predicting/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: FWIW the Euro had the Thursday event/non event pretty well locked in at this stage of the game (144 hours out) while other models were still barking about a MECS not sure if that adds comfort or confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Screw waiting until Thursday to get invested. Navgem is on board now. You know damn well i will be comparing that NAM at 84 vs the EURO. haha. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: Thx Debbie... that was fun for 1 hour though....you gotta admit. I'm playin around cause the potential and setup look better, but reality doesnt always see it that way, so I'm just savoring the moment and hoping for more moments. If being realistic is Debbie... I'm just gun shy after this winter. And..174 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2ft or bust! Big gamble 6 days out. I'm glad the EURO is giving us love after a long drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, DCTeacherman said: I agree with this but I'd say we're getting close to the point where it would be surprising if there wasn't *some* snow for us on Monday/Tuesday. Will it be a big dog? Hopefully, but as you said too early to get fully on that train. Oh yeah, I think we do look good for some snow during the period. Whether is a decent snow or monumental is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: If being realistic is Debbie... I'm just gun shy after this winter. And..174 hours. No explanation needed and well stated. Just playin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 My baseline is 6" - 10" for this event. If we get somewhere in there, cool. Anything more is gravy. The past 4 years have been poo and having it fall on a weekend would be great. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: My baseline is 6" - 10" for this event. If we get somewhere in there, cool. Anything more is gravy. The past 4 years have been poo and having it fall on a weekend would be great. Weekend rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: You know damn well i will be comparing that NAM at 84 vs the EURO. haha. We all will be..and if you’re not, you’re only lying to yourself. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Who's starting the thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, LeesburgWx said: Who's starting the thread? Randy on Thursday 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, LeesburgWx said: Who's starting the thread? No one. Until Thursday at least. 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: My baseline is 6" - 10" for this event. If we get somewhere in there, cool. Anything more is gravy. The past 4 years have been poo and having it fall on a weekend would be great. If we're taking the Icon's snowfall duration into consideration.. are you talking about this weekend or the weekend after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 The one thing I did not like was at hour 96 on the H5, the pesky TPV showed up again... that is what pushed everything south... We have played this game before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: The one thing I did not like was at hour 96 on the H5, the pesky TPV showed up again... that is what pushed everything south... We have played this game before. but the run ended up fine... so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 So 12z Recap and please correct me if I'm wrong about any of these GFS/GEFS: light/decent Para: good CMC/GEPS: decent UK: decent Euro/EPS: ridiculous Icon: very good JMA: good Navgem: good Am I missing anything? I'll tell you what, I'm glad it's not the GEFS/EPS reversed. The GEFS was holding on to the Thursday storm long after the EPS said it was going to the Carolinas. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just missing your old avatar...I miss the weather weenie superhero. My mistake, that might be DD Weatherman or something of that ilk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: So 12z Recap and please correct me if I'm wrong about any of these GFS/GEFS: light/decent Para: good CMC/GEPS: decent UK: decent Euro/EPS: ridiculous Icon: very good JMA: good Navgem: good Am I missing anything? I'll tell you what, I'm glad it's not the GEFS/EPS reversed. The GEFS was holding on to the Thursday storm long after the EPS said it was going to the Carolinas. The UK would have been very good IMO. Only out to 144. There was a lot of meat left on that bone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I count no less than 16 EPS members that give DCA 10"+ With 5 days until it starts snowing here that's crazy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: The UK would have been very good IMO. Only out to 144. There was a lot of meat left on that bone. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I've noticed a bit of a trend this winter, that there have been some insane model results from 6-7 days away, people have gotten really hyped up, and then around day 5 the models tend to get a much more realistic grasp on things, then within 5 days the more fine details are worked out. It's taught me not to buy in to any solutions at all until the height of the storm is within 120 hours on the models. So, if the models are still on board for a decent snowstorm of any variety come tomorrow's 12z suite, I'll jump on the train. Until then, I wish you all the best. Hoping there's no crumble overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Bastardi is all-in. He invoked 1996 and 1978. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Improvement 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Steve25 said: I've noticed a bit of a trend this winter, that there have been some insane model results from 6-7 days away, people have gotten really hyped up, and then around day 5 the models tend to get a much more realistic grasp on things, then within 5 days the more fine details are worked out. It's taught me not to buy in to any solutions at all until the height of the storm is within 120 hours on the models. So, if the models are still on board for a decent snowstorm of any variety come tomorrow's 12z suite, I'll jump on the train. Until then, I wish you all the best. Hoping there's no crumble overnight. You just noticed this trend this winter only? In all seriousness that is how the models generally work every year. Outlandish solutions possible at long leads, slowly figuring out the details as we get closer and then fine tuning closer in. That's not a unique thing to this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: You just noticed this trend this winter only? In all seriousness that is how the models generally work every year. Outlandish solutions possible at long leads, slowly figuring out the details as we get closer and then fine tuning closer in. That's not a unique thing to this year. Also remember all of the bitching and moaning about no model showing blue over us...that didn't really change until about the 19th or 20th of this month 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, IronTy said: Bastardi is all-in. He invoked 1996 and 1978. Is there a time where hes NOT all-in? lol...Looks good so long as the block pushes this thing just underneath of us and then off the VA capes...but we've been Charlie Browned too much already 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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