Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ji said: when do we start taking this storm seriously? I would say if it surives through tomorrow night at 00z(that would be 3 more runs)...its time to maybe start forecasting? IMO, 12z Saturday runs 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 12z Thursday is when I start investing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: Lets get two more runs of Euro and EPS and if results are similar I think its time to take this very seriously. Agree with PSU that the agreement on the EPS is unreal. yea so was the agreement on the GFS and GEFS. But seems different with EURO and as PSU said--seems like alot less things to interfere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: 12z Thursday is when I start investing You are already fulling invested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: 12z Thursday is when I start investing tomorrow seems like a good day to close the blinds.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: 12z Thursday is when I start investing I'd say by then we're going to have a good idea whether this thing is fading or possibly one for the record books. Hopefully by Saturday we're still looking at 15"+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: IMO, 12z Saturday runs I wish you were kidding..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Well so much for sleep for the rest of this week....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 55 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: Waiting for you to tell us what could go wrong....or should we not jinx it... There is a lot more that could go right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, Interstate said: You are already fulling invested nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: tomorrow seems like a good day to close the blinds.......... so fitting i couldnt resist. This is you and you know it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: There is a lot more that could go right did every model have the Jan 2016 blockbuster 4 days out(where we are now)---i dont remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I wish you were kidding..... I'm just trying to not get suckered in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Screw waiting until Thursday to get invested. Navgem is on board now. 3 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: I'm just trying to not get suckered in. and I repeat...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'd say by then we're going to have a good idea whether this thing is fading or possibly one for the record books. Hopefully by Saturday we're still looking at 15"+ That's correct. 12z Thursday should set the table to see if this is real or a mirage. Hell, even the NAM will start sniffing it out by then. No use in getting wound up now because the Euro could be (and seems like) a fluke IMO. Something that crazy has to be viewed with a huge dose of skepticism. Yeah, I'm excited like everyone else here, but after getting the football yanked way too many times this winter....imma wait. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 FWIW the Euro had the Thursday event/non event pretty well locked in at this stage of the game (144 hours out) while other models were still barking about a MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 how do we get this to trend south 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: That's correct. 12z Thursday should set the table to see if this is real or a mirage. Hell, even the NAM will start sniffing it out by then. No use in getting wound up now because the Euro could be (and seems like) a fluke IMO. Something that crazy has to be viewed with a huge dose of skepticism. Yeah, I'm excited like everyone else here, but after getting the football yanked way too many times this winter....imma wait. I agree with this but I'd say we're getting close to the point where it would be surprising if there wasn't *some* snow for us on Monday/Tuesday. Will it be a big dog? Hopefully, but as you said too early to get fully on that train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: That's correct. 12z Thursday should set the table to see if this is real or a mirage. Hell, even the NAM will start sniffing it out by then. No use in getting wound up now because the Euro could be (and seems like) a fluke IMO. Something that crazy has to be viewed with a huge dose of skepticism. Yeah, I'm excited like everyone else here, but after getting the football yanked way too many times this winter....imma wait. Thx Debbie... that was fun for 1 hour though....you gotta admit. I'm playin around cause the potential and setup look better, but reality doesnt always see it that way, so I'm just savoring the moment and hoping for more moments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: did every model have the Jan 2016 blockbuster 4 days out(where we are now)---i dont remember. if you aren't paywalled, this CWG article has some model outputs from 90+ hours out. there was agreement. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/20/how-much-snow-are-local-forecasters-and-computer-models-predicting/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: FWIW the Euro had the Thursday event/non event pretty well locked in at this stage of the game (144 hours out) while other models were still barking about a MECS not sure if that adds comfort or confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Screw waiting until Thursday to get invested. Navgem is on board now. You know damn well i will be comparing that NAM at 84 vs the EURO. haha. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: Thx Debbie... that was fun for 1 hour though....you gotta admit. I'm playin around cause the potential and setup look better, but reality doesnt always see it that way, so I'm just savoring the moment and hoping for more moments. If being realistic is Debbie... I'm just gun shy after this winter. And..174 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2ft or bust! Big gamble 6 days out. I'm glad the EURO is giving us love after a long drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, DCTeacherman said: I agree with this but I'd say we're getting close to the point where it would be surprising if there wasn't *some* snow for us on Monday/Tuesday. Will it be a big dog? Hopefully, but as you said too early to get fully on that train. Oh yeah, I think we do look good for some snow during the period. Whether is a decent snow or monumental is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: If being realistic is Debbie... I'm just gun shy after this winter. And..174 hours. No explanation needed and well stated. Just playin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 My baseline is 6" - 10" for this event. If we get somewhere in there, cool. Anything more is gravy. The past 4 years have been poo and having it fall on a weekend would be great. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: My baseline is 6" - 10" for this event. If we get somewhere in there, cool. Anything more is gravy. The past 4 years have been poo and having it fall on a weekend would be great. Weekend rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: You know damn well i will be comparing that NAM at 84 vs the EURO. haha. We all will be..and if you’re not, you’re only lying to yourself. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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