heavy_wx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I just actually looked at the euro run on my computer now for the first time. My God that's just perfection. And cold leading into the storm! Lovely bifurcation of the mid-level flow! The resulting confluence promotes anticyclogenesis south of James Bay and cold-air damming into the mid-Atlantic. 9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said: Ahhhh, you're from Richmond. That explains it. But yes, for sure, there are sound meteorological reasons why this storm, still 5+ days away, will "bump south" a couple times, right into your own backyard, then "lock it in." I can identify no flaws in your analysis. Not Wishing or Expecting it to bullseye my back yard. Just look at the trend in this model and look at the trend in all models over the last week. Also I'm not in Richmond. I dont give a Sh*t what the GFS or its ensembles show for this week after its performance lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Well, to his defense, your profile does have KRIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: Not Wishing or Expecting it to bullseye my back yard. Just look at the trend in this model and look at the trend in all models over the last week. Also I'm not in Richmond. I dont give a Sh*t what the GFS or its ensembles show for this week after its performance lately. Yeh man tell that bum you don’t need to wish it south. I’m doing plenty of that myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 when do we start taking this storm seriously? I would say if it surives through tomorrow night at 00z(that would be 3 more runs)...its time to maybe start forecasting? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Ji said: when do we start taking this storm seriously? I would say if it surives through tomorrow night at 00z(that would be 3 more runs)...its time to maybe start forecasting? That ship has sailed. The bus is already packed and rolling. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: when do we start taking this storm seriously? I would say if it surives through tomorrow night at 00z(that would be 3 more runs)...its time to maybe start forecasting? Am I wrong that our biggest storms are generally modeled this far out? We never get a huge storm that pops up 96 hours before. If this has happened, I haven't seen it. I know we have had the rug pulled too many times to count, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: when do we start taking this storm seriously? I would say if it surives through tomorrow night at 00z(that would be 3 more runs)...its time to maybe start forecasting? NAM range for onset of WAA might make sense.. by then the track before costal is pretty set and then the details that'll come into med/short range will just be the stuff after. Got a long 24-48hrs to go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2016 was the last time we saw this level of agreement in the eps at this range. Even the control looks like a carbon copy wrt axis of snow as the eps mean. Uncanny 8 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucketts Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 How far has this trended south during the last few Euro runs? Is this a legitimate concern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Lets get two more runs of Euro and EPS and if results are similar I think its time to take this very seriously. Agree with PSU that the agreement on the EPS is unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ji said: when do we start taking this storm seriously? I would say if it surives through tomorrow night at 00z(that would be 3 more runs)...its time to maybe start forecasting? You going to tease up your FB followers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ji said: when do we start taking this storm seriously? I would say if it surives through tomorrow night at 00z(that would be 3 more runs)...its time to maybe start forecasting? IMO, 12z Saturday runs 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 12z Thursday is when I start investing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: Lets get two more runs of Euro and EPS and if results are similar I think its time to take this very seriously. Agree with PSU that the agreement on the EPS is unreal. yea so was the agreement on the GFS and GEFS. But seems different with EURO and as PSU said--seems like alot less things to interfere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: 12z Thursday is when I start investing You are already fulling invested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: 12z Thursday is when I start investing tomorrow seems like a good day to close the blinds.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: 12z Thursday is when I start investing I'd say by then we're going to have a good idea whether this thing is fading or possibly one for the record books. Hopefully by Saturday we're still looking at 15"+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: IMO, 12z Saturday runs I wish you were kidding..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Well so much for sleep for the rest of this week....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 55 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: Waiting for you to tell us what could go wrong....or should we not jinx it... There is a lot more that could go right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, Interstate said: You are already fulling invested nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: tomorrow seems like a good day to close the blinds.......... so fitting i couldnt resist. This is you and you know it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: There is a lot more that could go right did every model have the Jan 2016 blockbuster 4 days out(where we are now)---i dont remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I wish you were kidding..... I'm just trying to not get suckered in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Screw waiting until Thursday to get invested. Navgem is on board now. 3 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: I'm just trying to not get suckered in. and I repeat...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'd say by then we're going to have a good idea whether this thing is fading or possibly one for the record books. Hopefully by Saturday we're still looking at 15"+ That's correct. 12z Thursday should set the table to see if this is real or a mirage. Hell, even the NAM will start sniffing it out by then. No use in getting wound up now because the Euro could be (and seems like) a fluke IMO. Something that crazy has to be viewed with a huge dose of skepticism. Yeah, I'm excited like everyone else here, but after getting the football yanked way too many times this winter....imma wait. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 FWIW the Euro had the Thursday event/non event pretty well locked in at this stage of the game (144 hours out) while other models were still barking about a MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 how do we get this to trend south 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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