chris21 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: Hope the Ukie is at least decent It is 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Hope the Ukie is at least decent Looks like some light snow after this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Ukie is all front end. Ccb from the coastal is in New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Biggest Euro run of our lives! Torn on what it will show. The CMC is encouraging because it was so close to a monster storm. But the Euro is on its own and we are getting fairly close to gametime with some models showing snow fairly early Sunday. Have this nagging feeling it's going to cave. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 @clskinsfan @LP08 @leesburg 04 @CAPE @BristowWx I’m ready to go ahead and push my chips all in and close out my hand. I would be way too greedy otherwise to not do so down this way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Cmc 11 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 As Ji always says, the snowiest model always caves to the least snowiest model. Fully expecting the euro to be a dagger to the heart. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 Nobody posted on GEFS? Looks like a move south from the overnight runs and the coastal transfer probably has a number of farther south transfers just looking at the GEFS mean on TT with lots of isobar bagginess down toward the NC coast at 114hrs. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Hey all. Didn’t look at a single thing until 11:30 am. Highly recommend it. I did see this image posted and I’ll bet any poster whatever they want to bet that this isn’t right lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Nobody posted on GEFS? Looks like a move south from the overnight runs and the coastal transfer probably has a number of farther south transfers just looking at the GEFS mean on TT with lots of isobar bagginess down toward the NC coast at 114hrs. Don't think anyone posted it because the snow mean is slightly worse. Definitely support in here for an event but not quite the widespread 4-8". More like a 2-5" with some nice upside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 13 minutes ago, LP08 said: Ukie is all front end. Ccb from the coastal is in New England Ugh. Why do I get the feeling the Euro is gonna do that thing is does...where it caves to lesser models, but only when it shows us getting big snow first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said: Ugh. Why do I get the feeling the Euro is gonna do that thing is does...where it caves to lesser models, but only when it shows us getting big snow first. It it does that this will probably be the first time it did both of those things...in the same week, smh Let's hope not...that would just be trolling, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Don't think anyone posted it because the snow mean is slightly worse. Definitely support in here for an event but not quite the widespread 4-8". More like a 2-5" with some nice upside. D.C. snow hole waiting to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Too much negativity... not major but 12Z show snow under 5 days! WB ICON, GFS, and Can. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Cmc That looks a lot better than reality over here. Verbatim it rains for 12-15 hours. All guidance has the warming both at the surface and aloft along and mostly east of I-95. The broader issue is the Arctic air is moving out and this system takes forever to evolve. The front end thump part is good. eff the damn coastal lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Now...if everything else this month has basically gotten squashed...why not here with the more northern guidance, (possibly transfer included) possibly shifting south...this time into better position...as we get closer? I mean, shoot...January trend ftw? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Current tally for the three storm model prediction in 5 days is little storm verified, moderate storm tonight into tomorrow gone, huge storm Sunday going away. We will see if they hit one out of three or two out of three. Either way, I’m grateful the other science methods I rely on for last 20 years Don’t have an average of 1/3 or 2/3. Vaccines are the rage now, glad they have a 99% effacy rate. So many many other examples also. Used to be tubes and transistors everywhere. Now microdot miniaturization and phones we hold in the palm of our hands that not long ago filled an entire room. Models are still transistors and tubes. Far more emphasis needs to be placed on the 3 day and inside and stop wasting time and money on these 5-10 out tasks which are simply too precise to actually be of value. Break it down into zones, say from Maine to VA and east of mountains is zone A. Ditch the 20” snow graphics for 5+ and merely issue text that Zone A has heightened opportunity for heavy snow in 5-10 days and then get down to the very suggestive and explicit graphics come day 3 Not merely bitching but rather offering suggestions and solutions. 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Now...if everything else this month has basically gotten squashed...why not here with the more northern guidance, (possibly transfer included) possibly shifting south...this time into better position...as we get closer? I mean, shoot...January trend ftw? Lol You're 100% right that's been the trend. That's what we have to hope for, honestly. It's why I'm still pretty hopeful (and the fact that it's the Euro in our corner). But it's still disconcerting to see so many globals showing the way we typically fail in Miller Bs - and we'd definitely shouldn't ignore that if we want to be clear-eyed and objective about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, WEATHER53 said: Current tally for the three storm model prediction in 5 days is little storm verified, moderate storm tonight into tomorrow gone, huge storm Sunday going away. We will see if they hit one out of three or two out of three. Either way, I’m grateful the other science methods I rely on for last 20 years Don’t have an average of 1/3 or 2/3. Vaccines are the rage now, glad they have a 99% effect rate. So many many other examples also. Please cite where you made ANY prediction at all 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, WEATHER53 said: Current tally for the three storm model prediction in 5 days is little storm verified, moderate storm tonight into tomorrow gone, huge storm Sunday going away. We will see if they hit one out of three or two out of three. Either way, I’m grateful the other science methods I rely on for last 20 years Don’t have an average of 1/3 or 2/3. Vaccines are the rage now, glad they have a 99% effect rate. So many many other examples also. This is a phenomenally stupid post. The big storm isn't "going away". You have to have a remarkable depth of ignorance about meteorology and modeling to think that the historic totals shown 5+ days out on one run of one model not verifying would be an example of a "failure" of modeling. Jesus. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Hey all. Didn’t look at a single thing until 11:30 am. Highly recommend it. I did see this image posted and I’ll bet any poster whatever they want to bet that this isn’t right lol Dream scenario for us out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: Current tally for the three storm model prediction in 5 days is little storm verified, moderate storm tonight into tomorrow gone, huge storm Sunday going away. We will see if they hit one out of three or two out of three. Either way, I’m grateful the other science methods I rely on for last 20 years Don’t have an average of 1/3 or 2/3. Vaccines are the rage now, glad they have a 99% effect rate. So many many other examples also. The best example is that you're a perfect 10 for 10 on the crazy post count in this thread. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 EURO, if you are listening, this forum is getting really chippy. Please provide us with 12-36 inches of sweet sweet digital snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Please cite where you made ANY prediction at all Not only that, but I gotta wonder WTF the mention of vaccines has to do with any of this?! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 What an amazing post by WEATHER53. I see no flaws in any of his statements. Poster of the year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Canadian ensembles juiced up compared to 0z. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, WVsnowlover said: Dream scenario for us out here You can keep dreaming because that’s the only place you’ll see it. Don’t ever buy a precip jackpot over us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Please cite where you made ANY prediction at all Will never happen. Might put those other science methods in the spotlight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, TowsonWeather said: You're 100% right that's been the trend. That's what we have to hope for, honestly. It's why I'm still pretty hopeful (and the fact that it's the Euro in our corner). But it's still disconcerting to see so many globals showing the way we typically fail in Miller Bs - and we'd definitely shouldn't ignore that if we want to be clear-eyed and objective about this. True it has been a trend...but the tomorrow potential went south literally because of an rogue short wave that didn't show up in Canada on all the guidance to enhance the confluence... until later on some guidance but earlier on other like the Euro. it happens right? millions of calculations in milliseconds for the entire world from sea level to 100K feet. we can hope for whatever we want but atmosphere will not care. but if you are going into to battle, you want the Euro on the front line. hope I don't have to retreat that statement in a half hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Ongoing theme would argue for less northern progression of the primary and a faster transfer. Seems like the ole path of least resistance theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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