BristowWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Sernest14 said: well that run was a disaster. good thing it's been all over the place and hasn't really had any consistently. not sure what you mean? GFS OG has had the primary doing the Ohio tour for about 5 runs now. not saying it right but certainly not all over the place IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Back side love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The analysis has been tragically bad so far at 12z. Hopefully this get cleared up with there is a separate thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Looks like we need a few diaper changes in the MA forum 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, mappy said: when did you last get 6" of snow? keep it all in perspective. That's what I'm saying I am totally cool with 6" of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Sernest14 said: well that run was a disaster. good thing it's been all over the place and hasn't really had any consistently. But it has... it has been driving the primary low into Ohio for awhile now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 What a whopper from the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Euro will hold serve and then we are back to square 1. Hopefully CMC and UKIE follow EURO and not GFS You know the drill. We toss everything until the Euro goes to hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The sad thing is that most of the posts in here are made by grown adults. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, chris21 said: The analysis has been tragically bad so far at 12z. Hopefully this get cleared up with there is a separate thread. dont worry! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, jaydreb said: If “disaster” means 3-6” snowfall then we must be in pretty good shape. mostly a 2-3" storm for 95 and points ~50 miles west. Half of total QPF is rain/mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFS would be roughly a 2-5 front end snow followed by another 1-2 as the coastal pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 IF you want to feel better, Toggle back to previous runs of the gfs to 144 for Thursday. It had consistent runs (6 in row) of a shellacking for the area, then all of a sudden, boom south at about 90-96 hrs. I liked early on the run the slower ejection at H5 (@ravensrule) and better heights over the NE. Maybe ill die on this hill and be completely out to lunch, but we've seen it all winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 So on the one hand we were told to be worried about suppression. Now everything is too far north. I don’t even know what to root against or for anymore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFS is still trying to find its way. It ain't going down like this verbatim. Still, it manages to give most of us 4-6", albeit with some rain and drizzle mixed in there. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Im struggling to find the disaster.. Kuchera is even higher. Wasn't the GFS still showing a flush hit for Thursday this far out?? The ground floor of basically all guidance has been 3-6".. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFS says enjoy your thump... you'll never get any coastal love from a Miller B in Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: But it has... it has been driving the primary low into Ohio for awhile now And it was so good for the storm tomorrow...….oh wait, then it drove it way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: Im struggling to find the disaster.. Kuchera is even higher. Wasn't the GFS still showing a flush hit for Thursday this far out?? The ground floor of basically all guidance has been 3-6".. There you go again with calm and reason. Damn it we want a BECS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: Im struggling to find the disaster.. Kuchera is even higher. Wasn't the GFS still showing a flush hit for Thursday this far out?? The ground floor of basically all guidance has been 3-6".. We aren't getting 10:1 snow with the primary running up into Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 There has definitely been a seasonal trend of primary lows hanging on longer than we want before coastal transfer. Doesn't mean it's going to happen this time though. I'd personally still be quite happy with 5-6", drizzle and dry slot, then 24hours of snowshowers for another 1-2". But I guess YMMV. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: Im struggling to find the disaster.. Kuchera is even higher. Wasn't the GFS still showing a flush hit for Thursday this far out?? The ground floor of basically all guidance has been 3-6".. I want a HECS more than anyone, but that's a region wide 6-8 inches for a "disaster run" of a model we already know isn't very good and was awful leading up to tomorrow's storm. If that's the floor for this storm, I'm feeling pretty great. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: We aren't getting 10:1 snow with the primary running up into Ohio. Most if not all of that comes from the initial WAA thump before the primary has a chance to wreck thermals. Obviously the GFS and Euro are still worlds apart with the actual costal aspect. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: I want a HECS more than anyone, but that's a region wide 6-8 inches for a "disaster run" of a model we already know isn't very good and was awful leading up to tomorrow's storm. If that's the floor for this storm, I'm feeling pretty great. That is a BOLD statement in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Im struggling to find the disaster.. Kuchera is even higher. Wasn't the GFS still showing a flush hit for Thursday this far out?? The ground floor of basically all guidance has been 3-6".. It’s all relative to expectations. For those who saw the euro and banked it, this is a disappointment. Also, it’s salt in many wounds here as this perfectly portrays how a miller b can leave us on the outside looking in. This snow map presupposes we also accumulate from the back end band. A lot has to go right for this to verify. I think we would all happily take it though given where we’ve been the last few years. Some in here just want that euro run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 11 minutes ago, BristowWx said: not sure what you mean? GFS OG has had the primary doing the Ohio tour for about 5 runs now. not saying it right but certainly not all over the place IMO. 10 minutes ago, Interstate said: But it has... it has been driving the primary low into Ohio for awhile now It has been through Ohio but more so talking about the coastal low that i feel as been jumping around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Im struggling to find the disaster.. Kuchera is even higher. Wasn't the GFS still showing a flush hit for Thursday this far out?? The ground floor of basically all guidance has been 3-6".. Cobalt to the rescue! I’m good now. Onward and upward! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 Para quite similar to old GFS in sensible outcome. 6-9" when all said and done. Thump, dry slot, back to snow showers with the ULL. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: We aren't getting 10:1 snow with the primary running up into Ohio. You out? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I'll take it. Lots of beggars trying to be choosers up in here this AM 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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