LP08 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Through 57, GFS is slower out west with better confluence in the NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Honestly, if the Euro and Euro ENS sh*t the bed after how well it kicked the GFS in the nuts for Tonight's storm, we may as well play darts blindfolded on a map moving forward for storm tracks and details. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Snow tends to changeover to rain when the temperature is 25 degrees. Heck of an ice storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t buy the icon thermals. Low tracks from outer banks to 50 miles east of OC then due north to cape map before fading NE. That’s a good track this time of year for anyone 95 west. This is completely anecdotal, but I find the icon to actually be a decent model when it comes to storm track and intensity but it doesn't pick up well on CAD at all and frequently scorches the boundary layer way too early or shows obvious mixing(sleet/frz) as plain rain. Again just something I've noticed model watching since it's been released but I don't have any data to back it up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 81. Primary 2mb stronger than 6z entering MO. High pressure also stronger with the better confluence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 93. Primary almost the exact same spot as 6z. Mod snow. Not much change at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFS looks better to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Decent snow at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Primary is stronger and slightly north of 6z. One could make the case that this isn't going to cut it for our thermals after the initial thump and the transfer along the coast. Let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, MD Snow said: Primary is stronger and slightly north of 6z. One could make the case that this isn't going to cut it for our thermals after the initial thump and the transfer along the coast. Let's see. Yeah, seems to be sticking with the low into Ohio still. That's too far north, IMO, and gives us rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFS is nothing to write home about south of I-70. Miller Bust. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 12z GFS at 102...slightly warmer than both it's 6z and 0z runs. Transfer ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I gained 2" on the GFS fron 4" to 6". I'll be happy with a 6" event But yeah, it's nothing crazy good or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 22 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: If anyone in this sub thinks we have a locked-in HECS or even MECS at this range, with our luck, they're looney. I'm waiting for that one Euro run that loses the storm completely leading to board meltdown. We usually get at least one run like that for every good storm. I can hear lockpickinglawyer’s intro... it’s not locked in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Where is the TPV when we need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Even the northern crew struggles to hit warning criteria snowfall on this run of the GFS. We better hope the GEPS and the Euro look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFS sucks.....next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFS is being stubborn once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Even the northern crew struggles to hit warning criteria snowfall on this run of the GFS. We better hope the GEPS and the Euro look better. Really a battle of the models. Getting close to being under that 100hr mark too. We'll see if the Americans or the Euro people win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Even the northern crew struggles to hit warning criteria snowfall on this run of the GFS. We better hope the GEPS and the Euro look better. Yeah, it's terrible. Warm, transfer happens too late, too far north. Like everyway it can fail here all rolled into one. Meh. Edit: at least the front end thump looks nice while it lasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I need to be talked back from the ledge... eta: or 4” is fine I guess. Smh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 well that run was a disaster. good thing it's been all over the place and hasn't really had any consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFS holds or takes a slight step back. Still some coastal snows though. So not off the table on the GFS. ICON took a pretty significant step toward the GFS at 12z after looking very EURO'ish at 6z. Still a long way to go. 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Even the northern crew struggles to hit warning criteria snowfall on this run of the GFS. We better hope the GEPS and the Euro look better. Yeah...6z didn't have warning level criteria for the northern crew either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Quasievil said: Yeah, it's terrible. Warm, transfer happens too late, too far north. Like everyway it can fail here all rolled into one. Meh. Miller Bust. Just now, Scraff said: I need to be talked back from the ledge... Just jump and get it over with. This isn't out winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 If “disaster” means 3-6” snowfall then we must be in pretty good shape. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Euro will hold serve and then we are back to square 1. Hopefully CMC and UKIE follow EURO and not GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: I gained 2" on the GFS fron 4" to 6". I'll be happy with a 6" event But yeah, it's nothing crazy good or anything. when did you last get 6" of snow? keep it all in perspective. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: GFS sucks.....next see you at the next threat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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