ryanconway63 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 ICON took a step back in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: The ICON is similar to the EPS with a low over southern Delmarva, albeit further NW Where was the low positioned in comparison to its previous run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I think the transferred occurred quicker for the 6z run At 114 the low is still trying to organize off the NC coast. Previous runs already made the transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, ryanconway63 said: ICON took a step back in my opinion I agree as the run progressed past hr 90 the primary gets into a position similar to the GFS (Ohio). It’s a Miller B where we all would hope to cash in on front end thump as a big dry slot pushes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Color me skeptical that temps jump to 36 in the city with a cranking CCB overhead. If we rain with that, I'll jump on the same bridge PSU jumps off. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Primary on the ICON goes into Ohio, not the greatest. We want it to die in Kentucky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Icon amps the primary. It’s north of its 6z run. Thermals become an issue as the coastal gets going. Coastal forms further north as a result. 6z was headed to a very nice run at end of its 6z run hr 120. Not so much at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I don’t like all the rain on the ICON. It ruins what would be a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Folks, if the primary ends up further north then we get more warm air and a later development on the coastal. The ICON is not a good look. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Icon solution pumps in too much warm air off the Atlantic when the best stuff gets going from the coastal. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Once the coastal low gets cranking, it's mostly all rain across Maryland. Not a good run, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Coastal actually moves a bit West of North for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Folks, if the primary ends up further north then we get more warm air and a later development on the coastal. The ICON is not a good look. If anything, it's a step towards the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I get it's the only game in town at the moment, but why are people literally freaking out about one run of the Icon 100 hours out? It's the Icon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The ICON is a scheisse model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, osfan24 said: I get it's the only game in town at the moment, but why are people literally freaking out about one run of the Icon 100 hours out? It's the Icon. Well, we have to over-analyze and freak out about something until the GFS gets in range... would you rather people go back to extrapolating the 84h NAM? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, osfan24 said: I get it's the only game in town at the moment, but why are people literally freaking out about one run of the Icon 100 hours out? It's the Icon. I would say just analyzing trends and instead of hyping ourselves because of the EPS, understanding how it can fail here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Well, at least it’s not suppressed. Thought that was the bigger worry here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: The ICON is a scheisse model. CRAS > ICON eta: let’s see how America does here in 10 minutes or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I don’t buy the icon thermals. Low tracks from outer banks to 50 miles east of OC then due north to cape map before fading NE. That’s a good track this time of year for anyone 95 west. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 If we're going to parse ICON details, the 2m temps show that at some of what is being presented as "rain" would fall into a sub-freezing air mass, with the freezing line barely to DC by 09z Monday. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Quasievil said: I would say just analyzing trends and instead of hyping ourselves because of the EPS, understanding how it can fail here too. If anyone in this sub thinks we have a locked-in HECS or even MECS at this range, with our luck, they're looney. I'm waiting for that one Euro run that loses the storm completely leading to board meltdown. We usually get at least one run like that for every good storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, high risk said: If we're going to parse ICON details, the 2m temps show that at some of what is being presented as "rain" would fall into a sub-freezing air mass, with the freezing line barely to DC by 09z Monday. Gotta fear those miller B ice storms! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: I don’t buy the icon thermals. Low tracks from outer banks to 50 miles east of OC then due north to cape map before fading NE. That’s a good track this time of year for anyone 95 west. I am not as down on the Icon as others but I full heartedly agree that its typical thermal projections are rarely close to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, caviman2201 said: If anyone in this sub thinks we have a locked-in HECS or even MECS at this range, with our luck, they're looney. Nothing is locked in, but I'll side with the Euro/EPS after what happened with the "big snowstorm" that was spit out by some models for tomorrow. And Euro/EPS has been rock solid for several runs now. Of course, adjustments or even a cave by the Euro is possible. But GFS has been slowly trending to it. I'll start to get concerned once the Euro wavers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Snow tends to changeover to rain when the temperature is 25 degrees. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I get it's the only game in town at the moment, but why are people literally freaking out about one run of the Icon 100 hours out? It's the Icon. on the flip side, there was a lot of irrational attention paid to the euro hecs/becs as well. it's just simply too early, one way or another. the only thing that's been pretty obvious is that we don't want the ull to be so far west/north that we end up with a dry slot/late transfer. i find 500 to be the best map to look at (as a hobbyist) this far out. surface maps tend to follow a sketch pattern as the event nears. that said, i'd be real content with a 4-6+" snowfall...this region could use it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 just 24 hrs ago some were singing praises to the ICON. Now its trash. lol 2 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, 87storms said: on the flip side, there was a lot of irrational attention paid to the euro hecs/becs as well. it's just simply too early, one way or another. the only thing that's been pretty obvious is that we don't want the ull to be so far west/north that we end up with a dry slot/late transfer. i find 500 to be the best map to look at (as a hobbyist) this far out. surface maps tend to follow a sketch pattern as the event nears. that said, i'd be real content with a 4-6+" snowfall...this region could use it. agree. and at this point I haven't seen anything that takes 4-6 off the table for many of us. I am excited for just that alone. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, H2O said: just 24 hrs ago some were singing praises to the ICON. Now its trash. lol you know how it goes, hug the model that gives the most snow 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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