January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

[chris21]

3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Even if we do turn over to rain we'll still get a nice thump at least first. Count on the CAD being undermodeled (weenie rule number something hundred and something)

In my thirty five years in the DC/mid Atlantic area, I’d honestly say there’s an argument that’s weenie rule #1. Happens 90 percent of the time.

[JakkelWx]

Just now, chris21 said:

In my thirty five years in the DC/mid Atlantic area, I’d honestly say there’s an argument that’s weenie rule #1. Happens 90 percent of the time.

I don't really know how it will end up but come Saturday evening i'll probably be looking at the r/s line and telling it to stay south

[frd]

34 minutes ago, nj2va said:

6z GEFS seems to have a quicker transfer and there are some SLP ensemble plots showing up off the coast in a better location.  It also gets the northern part of the subforum in on the coastal as it redevelops.   

But its still night/day from the EPS with the evolution.  

 

Man, why does the GFS struggle so much. The GFS cycle swings are maddening. Loving the EPS though, but realize we are far from a final outcome.

I am ignoring the thermals on the GFS. For @CAPE 's area and mine we really need an all snow event. I still feel there is a path to a mostly snow event in Northern Delaware, because I am not really interested in a front thump of snow.

 

  

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There are still multiple variations on the table for the ultimate outcome. There will be some legit cold/dry air in place at onset, so a good bet everyone sees some snow. Beyond that, it gets complicated.

I agree with @psuhoffman that at this point, the only way most of us don’t see any snow from this is if it’s suppressed way south. As we saw with Monday’s storm, when we have a -PNA, that’s more difficult then with a +PNA. 
 

Its nice that we will actually have a respectably cold airmass this weekend leading into the storm. Big storms always have a mix line though, whether it’s sleet or rain or both. Often its as we transition from the WAA  precip to the deformation band. Then once the deform band cranks, that mix line collapses back east. Hopefully we are thinking about those details on Saturday. 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I agree with @psuhoffman that at this point, the only way most of us don’t see any snow from this is if it’s suppressed way south. As we saw with Monday’s storm, when we have a -PNA, that’s more difficult then with a +PNA. 
 

Its nice that we will actually have a respectably cold airmass this weekend leading into the storm. Big storms always have a mix line though, whether it’s sleet or rain or both. Often its as we transition from the WAA  precip to the deformation band. Then once the deform band cranks, that mix line collapses back east. Hopefully we are thinking about those details on Saturday. 

Is any model other than the euro showing the stall scenario for the low on the coast?

[JakkelWx]

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Man, why does the GFS struggle so much. The GFS cycle swings are maddening. Loving the EPS though, but realize we are far from a final outcome.

I am ignoring the thermals on the GFS. For @CAPE 's area and mine we really need an all snow event. I still feel there is a path to a mostly snow event in Northern Delaware, because I am not really interested in a front thump of snow.

 

  

Hard to know what to root for given the disparity on the guidance. 2 things are concerning esp for eastern areas- the cold air mass will be gradually departing, and the complications with the location of the primary/ coastal transition. I would almost take my chances with a legit front end thump then dry slot while the good cold is still in place, vs a sloppy transfer/ one that ends up too close to the coast. Bigger upside though if it evolves something like the  previous Euro runs. The next few model cycles will be telling, maybe. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I really like the overnight runs.  I'm almost relieved the Euro didn't print out another HECS because that sets the expectations unreasonably high. The EPS being a big hit and the op Euro being a moderate hit but a southern outlier is about as good as you can draw it up for 5ish days out. 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Is any model other than the euro showing the stall scenario for the low on the coast?

0z GGEM basically stalls. Para had a stall a couple days ago for one or two runs. I haven’t looked at individual ensemble members, but I’d wager the big dogs on the ensemble individual snow maps are stalls.  A stall is certainly on the table. But it comes down to precise shortwave timing and how it phases. 

[09-10 analogy]

40 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Some people seem to not know how to differentiate from fun to look at vs what to expect. There shouldn't be anyone on here that didn't love looking at those few Euro runs that showed massive amounts of snow...that was some fun shit but if anyone expected that to be reality then I hope they only do that with weather

"But I'm telling you, these models are funny. First you hate them, then you get used to them. Enough time passes, you get so you depend on them."

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Hard to know what to root for given the disparity on the guidance. 2 things are concerning esp for eastern areas- the cold air mass will be gradually departing, and the complications with the location of the primary/ coastal transition. I would almost take my chances with a legit front end thump then dry slot while the good cold is still in place, vs a sloppy transfer/ one that ends up too close to the coast. Bigger upside though if it evolves something like the  previous Euro runs. The next few model cycles will be telling, maybe. 

6z NAVGEM clobbers you with the deform band @CAPE ... thats a stall in the right spot for your area.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Is any model other than the euro showing the stall scenario for the low on the coast?

6z para has the stall, just a little too far northeast for us to profit off it. 

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I agree with @psuhoffman that at this point, the only way most of us don’t see any snow from this is if it’s suppressed way south. As we saw with Monday’s storm, when we have a -PNA, that’s more difficult then with a +PNA. 
 

Its nice that we will actually have a respectably cold airmass this weekend leading into the storm. Big storms always have a mix line though, whether it’s sleet or rain or both. Often its as we transition from the WAA  precip to the deformation band. Then once the deform band cranks, that mix line collapses back east. Hopefully we are thinking about those details on Saturday. 

The big storm idea is complicated and more prone to failure in a Nina for the MA. If  I can get 4-6" of snow without worrying about  r/s line, I sign up for that shit. I know that probably doesn't work for Ji or Psu though lol.

[frd]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Bigger upside though if it evolves something like the  previous Euro runs. The next few model cycles will be telling, maybe. 

Yeah, I am hoping the outcomes eventually returns to what you posted here.

I am also hoping for a slower progression of the system as cold air may wrap back in, but also a quicker and deeper strengthening evolution. A perfect world for us .   A stall might be nice for our locations . I imagine the block and how it manifests itself leaves all those options on the table, at least for a couple more days. Hoping for a general consensus to be crushed by Friday evening would certainly set the stage for an exciting weekend.  Also, looking to mid Feb it appears we set the table again .  

 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

The big storm idea is complicated and more prone to failure in a Nina for the MA. If  I can get 4-6" of snow without worrying about  r/s line, I sign up for that shit. I know that probably doesn't work for Ji or Psu though lol.

this is the level headed approach everyone should take. but they won't. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The big storm idea is complicated and more prone to failure in a Nina for the MA. If  I can get 4-6" of snow without worrying about  r/s line, I sign up for that shit. I know that probably doesn't work for Ji or Psu though lol.

Yeah, basically what the 00z UK is showing.  I would also sign on the dotted line for that.  Solid warning event with no temp issues. 

[frd]

Just now, mappy said:

this is the level headed approach everyone should take. but they won't. 

Good advice , but this is an emotional hobby.  

[JakkelWx]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Hard to know what to root for given the disparity on the guidance. 2 things are concerning esp for eastern areas- the cold air mass will be gradually departing, and the complications with the location of the primary/ coastal transition. I would almost take my chances with a legit front end thump then dry slot while the good cold is still in place, vs a sloppy transfer/ one that ends up too close to the coast. Bigger upside though if it evolves something like the  previous Euro runs. The next few model cycles will be telling, maybe. 

Weenie rule #49294 - Cold air always moves out too fast on the models when there is strong blocking and a 50/50

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

this is the level headed approach everyone should take. but they won't. 

Its good to keep expectations at least somewhat aligned with reality lol.

Everyone is entitled to root for what they want, and it won't make a damn bit of difference in the end.

[aldie 22]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The big storm idea is complicated and more prone to failure in a Nina for the MA. If  I can get 4-6" of snow without worrying about  r/s line, I sign up for that shit. I know that probably doesn't work for Ji or Psu though lol.

One of those guys has a history of being unstable in close events....the other is Ji 

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The big storm idea is complicated and more prone to failure in a Nina for the MA. If  I can get 4-6" of snow without worrying about  r/s line, I sign up for that shit. I know that probably doesn't work for Ji or Psu though lol.

The same people fretting over suppression and ridge trough stuff don't realize that by wanting more amped and tucked means people like you/me then start dealing with r/s issues more.  So wishing for 30" clown maps means its more feast/famine for other areas.  

I honestly rather have a total area wide 6" event than you and me getting 2" slop and Westminster 14" cold smoke.  Why can't people just be happy with a uniform blanket?  My god, the last 3 years have just sucked for most.  This storm would crush whats fallen for me.  When DCA gets 0.3" and its HALF of last year then a 6" storm is like dating Bella Hadid.

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The big storm idea is complicated and more prone to failure in a Nina for the MA. If  I can get 4-6" of snow without worrying about  r/s line, I sign up for that shit. I know that probably doesn't work for Ji or Psu though lol.

Definitely Nina climo, especially Nina Miller B hybrid climo, is against us getting the goods. But the blocking puts us in the game. 
 

I’m also very much down for a cold powder warning-level event with no stress lol. 

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, H2O said:

The same people fretting over suppression and ridge trough stuff don't realize that by wanting more amped and tucked means people like you/me then start dealing with r/s issues more.  So wishing for 30" clown maps means its more feast/famine for other areas.  

I honestly rather have a total area wide 6" event than you and me getting 2" slop and Westminster 14" cold smoke.  Why can't people just be happy with a uniform blanket?  My god, the last 3 years have just sucked for most.  This storm would crush whats fallen for me.  When DCA gets 0.3" and its HALF of last year then a 6" storm is like dating Bella Hadid.

FYI, she dated The Weekend  

[osfan24]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Definitely Nina climo, especially Nina Miller B hybrid climo, is against us getting the goods. But the blocking puts us in the game. 
 

I’m also very much down for a cold powder warning-level event with no stress lol. 

Is a cold powder-warning level even with no stress really in the cards, though? Isn't that going to require suppression of the coastal, which is going to likely cause a lot of stress over whether we get enough precip far enough north to cash in?

Everyone can root for what they want. Like another poster says, it won't change the final result. But we haven't had a real snowstorm in five years. Sure, a nice 6-10 would be great. But like PSU said, you only get the ingredients to come together for a big one every so often. We've had a -AO forever. It's time to cash in and hit a grand slam, not a double.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Definitely Nina climo, especially Nina Miller B hybrid climo, is against us getting the goods. But the blocking puts us in the game. 
 

I’m also very much down for a cold powder warning-level event with no stress lol. 

The problem is that is not likely an option either in this set up with the primary.  The front end thump/dry slot is close, but that still ends up with a bit of mix/rain for some areas. I would take it. And ofc the waa precip could end up somewhat suppressed lol. Never easy. I guess that makes the tracking more interesting.

[mappy]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Its good to keep expectations at least somewhat aligned with reality lol.

Everyone is entitled to root for what they want, and it won't make a damn bit of difference in the end.

sure sure, i get it. 30" inches of snow for many who haven't seen shit in years. totally understand the desire for that kind of outcome. but the emotional roller coaster it involves is annoying to read every model suite. 

[frd]

 

AM EPS looks like a slow movement. Hard to tell thermals but guessing  issues for the low lands. Jeez another issue with temps 

 

 

[H2O]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

FYI, she dated The Weekend  

Who? 

 

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

Here we go again. More temp issues. The 32 degree line is way up into PA on the 06z EPS. 

It is? Doesn't look like it on the map posted above. At the time, looks like it runs just south of DC.

[frd]

Just now, JakkelWx said:

Here we go again. More temp issues. The 32 degree line is way up into PA on the 06z EPS.