January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

 

 

EPS certainly looks good to me. Seen way worse at these leads. I'd be encouraged and anyone from PA to NC should be paying close attention to this sucker. 

EPS is worthy of tears. It’s beautiful. Makes that op run a little easier to take. But given a few factors, seasonal trend, the location of the upper level ridge in Canada and the associated flow over New England and the fact the western ridge is centered east of the Rockies...I am more worried about suppressed then a cutter as a total fail here. Suppressed might not necessarily mean it all stays south...could do a split like this storm yesterday where the WAA associated wave gets suppressed south and a northern feature kinda weakly meanders to our NW and we barely get any precip.  But the issue with that kind of outcome is still suppression because imo with the cold, the high location, and the flow to our north even an amplifying wave that tries to cut would give us a nice warning level thump snow. The only path to a fail I see is if the storm starts to get suppressed by the flow (like everything else lately) and can’t amplify to the coast.  So I’m definitely not tossing any towel, it’s a good setup, but I don’t like seeing the best operational trend towards my fail option. 
 

Btw it’s really rare lately for the ensembles (gefs or eps) to disagree so strongly with the op in the day 4-6 range anymore. I’ve noted that in recent years they’ve become mostly a “yea that” chorus of affirmation. I have no idea why they seem to align with the op more frequently. Maybe the ops are better and have less hiccup runs anymore. Obviously they can be wrong but not in ways inconsistent with their own physics so the ensembles can’t see that error either. Interesting that this run the eps diverged so strongly from the op. The optimist in me wants to believe the op was just a hiccup. 

[yoda]

I counted 37 or so of the 50 EPS members that give DCA 6"+ on the 00z run

[Amped]

Okay so the Euro was a southern outlier and has not much support from ensembles? 

 

I thought this Euro run was wonky anyway and should have phased.    The HP is pretty darn far east and extends down the coast. It's not easy for something to slip OTS in this pattern.

GFS and CMC both had more reasonable looking outcomes.

 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Amped said:

Okay so the Euro was a southern outlier and has not much support from ensembles? 

 

I thought this Euro run was wonky anyway and should have phased.    The HP is pretty darn far east and extends down the coast. It's not easy for something to slip OTS in this pattern.

GFS and CMC both had more reasonable looking outcomes.

 

You’re being optimistic?   What is happening. 

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

EPS is worthy of tears. It’s beautiful. Makes that op run a little easier to take. But given a few factors, seasonal trend, the location of the upper level ridge in Canada and the associated flow over New England and the fact the western ridge is centered east of the Rockies...I am more worried about suppressed then a cutter as a total fail here. Suppressed might not necessarily mean it all stays south...could do a split like this storm yesterday where the WAA associated wave gets suppressed south and a northern feature kinda weakly meanders to our NW and we barely get any precip.  But the issue with that kind of outcome is still suppression because imo with the cold, the high location, and the flow to our north even an amplifying wave that tries to cut would give us a nice warning level thump snow. The only path to a fail I see is if the storm starts to get suppressed by the flow (like everything else lately) and can’t amplify to the coast.  So I’m definitely not tossing any towel, it’s a good setup, but I don’t like seeing the best operational trend towards my fail option. 
 

Btw it’s really rare lately for the ensembles (gefs or eps) to disagree so strongly with the op in the day 4-6 range anymore. I’ve noted that in recent years they’ve become mostly a “yea that” chorus of affirmation. I have no idea why they seem to align with the op more frequently. Maybe the ops are better and have less hiccup runs anymore. Obviously they can be wrong but not in ways inconsistent with their own physics so the ensembles can’t see that error either. Interesting that this run the eps diverged so strongly from the op. The optimist in me wants to believe the op was just a hiccup. 

I think the deterministic models are certainly better than the past, but the physics get amplified compared to a smoothed ensemble mean. So, one small shift in deterministic will have more drastic impacts comparative. I think the ensemble run this evening showed that perhaps the more strung out nature of the 5H vort might have been too exaggerated as the EPS even looked better with a more pronounced 5H vort pass and deepening low tucked in a climatologically favored position for the sub-forum. I was checking the Prob Height fields and was encouraged to see such a high prob of <540dm location in conjunction to the deterministic. It was sort of classic and even a bit further north than I was expecting. That's probably why there are so many ensemble lows tucked near OCMD and Wallops compared to Kitty Hawk. 

The ridge out west does bug me a bit. I like my ridges scouring for potatoes in ID and not roaming the northern Rockies in MT. One of those cases where a further downstream ridge axis will want to be a bit flatter compared to when its further upstream. Hopefully a Euro overamplification bias comes into play and it corrects. It's at that range where that can occur. Pretty classic medium range ECMWF.  

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

The Euro is close to being a southern outlier compared to the EPS.. in intensity too it seems. 

the EPS did not like what the Euro decided to throw out tonight.

Euro for reference

EPS is still more important at this range. Still outside 100 hours.  

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The ridge out west does bug me a bit. I like my ridges scouring for potatoes in ID and not roaming the northern Rockies in MT. One of those cases where a further downstream ridge axis will want to be a bit flatter compared to when its further upstream. Hopefully a Euro overamplification bias comes into play and it corrects. It's at that range where that can occur. Pretty classic medium range ECMWF.  

Yes, I think some were rooting for that ridge to pump more but that doesn’t work when it’s centered east like that.  There isn’t enough space for the wave to dig, amplify, and turn the corner and lift. It’s unlikely to gain much latitude once the secondary forms and gets captured. If it digs too much it won’t recover. We’re so used to wanting things to dig more but this is a case where imo were better off with less ridge and less digging. Let the h5 feature slide ESE and capture the secondary off the VA capes not down off NC. EPS likes that option. 

[mappy]

4 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

Sunday, this forum will be unreadable....and not just due to me...

dont worry, if/when a storm thread is created, we will move banter out of it. enjoy while yall can.

[Ji]

The icon looked pretty good till it abruptly ended

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk

[aldie 22]

Lol the amount of emotion at 2-3am and the rollercoaster from the OP to the ensemble run....so much for the saying "never let them see you sweat" I certainly didn't enjoy seeing a less than robust op run from the euro but dang people...breathe...relax...it's Wednesday and it was close. If this thing is going to bust I'd rather it do it now anyway instead of Saturday....

Happy Hump Day y'all on to the next set of model runs.

[LP08]

Didn’t see this posted.  Good spot to be at 144.

[aldie 22]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

The icon looked pretty good till it abruptly ended

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk
 

You mean when it got to the end of its run?

[Baltimorewx]

Nobody with the 6zGEFS yet? I noticed the 6z GFS OP is still hanging on to that late transfer and more north solution. 

[nj2va]

6z GEFS seems to have a quicker transfer and there are some SLP ensemble plots showing up off the coast in a better location.  It also gets the northern part of the subforum in on the coastal as it redevelops.   

But its still night/day from the EPS with the evolution.  

[Weather Will]

6Z WB GFS and GEFS

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Nobody with the 6zGEFS yet? I noticed the 6z GFS OP is still hanging on to that late transfer and more north solution. 

6z GFS ticked north relative to 0z lol. 6z Para is a strung out mess. Sort of a snowier version of Monday’s event. 
But damn that EPS clustering right off OCMD is beautiful. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z ICON at 1 am Monday (end of run)

[mappy]

I like where we are 4-5 days out and everyone else should too. some of yall haven't seen measurable snow in a while and you're chasing unicorn snow amounts. lower your expectations and be thrilled with a warning level event vs a BECS. 

[aldie 22]

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z ICON at 1 am Monday (end of run)

Correction this is when it abruptly ended for some reason

[WxUSAF]

Per @tombo82685, only 3 EPS members were op-like. Definitely a southern outlier. 

[nj2va]

LWX bumped the entire area into “Enhanced” on Day 5.  And here’s their latest disco:

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure overhead will keep us dry and chilly Saturday. As
the northern fringe of this high departs toward the northeast,
the southern half will wedge along the eastern slopes of the
Appalachians. This will likely keep cold air in place ahead of a
developing low pressure system that could bring us a mix of
rain and snow or all snow later in the weekend. Clouds will
increase Saturday night before thickening with precipitation
arriving Sunday.

As of now, the precipitation looks to arrive as some light snow
late Saturday night into early Sunday from southwest to
northeast. As an easterly flow increases ahead of the main storm
system, we throw a factor of rain into the precipitation type
mixture. By late Sunday evening and continuing Sunday night and
through midday Monday, the easterly flow gradually becomes more
northerly. This is due to a coastal low pressure system forming
near the Outer Banks and intensifying as it moves toward the
northeast.

By Monday night and into Tuesday, precipitation should taper
off and end slowly from west to east as the coastal low moves
away and high pressure becomes reestablished in the region.
Temperatures will be near average during the lifetime of the
storm system.

[aldie 22]

Just now, mappy said:

I like where we are 4-5 days out and everyone else should too. some of yall haven't seen measurable snow in a while and you're chasing unicorn snow amounts. lower your expectations and be thrilled with a warning level event vs a BECS. 

Some people seem to not know how to differentiate from fun to look at vs what to expect. There shouldn't be anyone on here that didn't love looking at those few Euro runs that showed massive amounts of snow...that was some fun shit but if anyone expected that to be reality then I hope they only do that with weather

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Per @tombo82685, only 3 EPS members were op-like. Definitely a southern outlier. 

I know this after all of these years...if you are fearing suppression and you're looking for positive news look north for your analysis 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

I know this after all of these years...if you are fearing suppression and you're looking for positive news look north for your analysis 

Ha, yes. New England weenies loving the EPS.

[ovechkin]

I’m one of the village idiots here, but 6z GFS to me sucked. Classic miller B screw job where the initial slug cuts off and the coastal slams north of Baltimore to NYC. 3-6 is fine. 20 plus is rarely realistic. But us getting 3-5 while PHL to NYC gets 10 plus? Ugh. Reminds me of Jan 05 a bit.

Lets hope EPS has a better idea. 

[Interstate]

40 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Didn’t see this posted.  Good spot to be at 144.

We said that about Thursday’s storm too

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ha, yes. New England weenies loving the EPS.

It was definitely a bit toasty along I-95 and east. That makes the N and W crew feel good.

[JakkelWx]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It was definitely a bit toasty along I-95 and east. That makes the N and W crew feel good.

Even if we do turn over to rain we'll still get a nice thump at least first. Count on the CAD being undermodeled (weenie rule number something hundred and something)

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Even if we do turn over to rain we'll still get a nice thump at least first

There are still multiple variations on the table for the ultimate outcome. There will be some legit cold/dry air in place at onset, so a good bet everyone sees some snow. Beyond that, it gets complicated.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Say what you will about these maps but if we somehow walked away without a storm, it would be an unprecedented failure.

Wow these maps are looking very nice.  I’m starting to believe it might actually snow!