January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

[SnowDreamer]

Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

That comma head will drop a foot of snow in less than 10 hours on those lucky enough to cash in.  December 2009 had a similar feature if i remember correctly

It's a common feature in our bigguns once the LP really starts dropping. 

[Heisy]

Just now, Anyweather said:

Are there any indications of a crawl up the coast? 18z eps, wise  

 

This will continue to be the main question. Phased storms are not modeled well imo. I live in Philly but will chase wherever it falls so I have no skin in the game, but I’d feel very good if I lived in N VA right now.

[Heisy]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Control looks like its moving due north at 144 ...slowly 

Can you post an H5?

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

This will continue to be the main question. Phased storms are not modeled well imo. I live in Philly but will chase wherever it falls so I have no skin in the game, but I’d feel very good if I lived in N VA right now.

I'd be feeling decent between I-66 and PA Route 30 for a warning level event right now. Set your expectations low since this is a Miller B in a La Nina. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[WxUSAF]

500mb comparison to 12z that @Wentzadelphia posted elsewhere looks to me like the 18z EPS is more likely to capture the surface low and get a stall and stack. Northern stream energy is diving into our main low at 144hrs and the whole trough is deeper with more ridging ahead of it over the Atlantic. Pretty amazing to see this on a D6 mean. 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

500mb comparison to 12z that @Wentzadelphia posted elsewhere looks to me like the 18z EPS is more likely to capture the surface low and get a stall and stack. Northern stream energy is diving into our main low at 144hrs and the whole trough is deeper with more ridging ahead of it over the Atlantic. Pretty amazing to see this on a D6 mean. 

Is that good?

[RichmondTarHeel]

Any of y’all coming to Richmond to snow chase this one? 

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

If that doesn't bring @Bob Chill out to play, nothing will.

[Heisy]

3 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

 

Hmm, idk what to think. Almost looks like it missed the 12z euro phase with that energy up near the lakes. That’s a good sign that you guys are killing it even without that happening. Hard for me to know for sure though. The phase impacts Philly and SNE more anyway you guys can do well with this one even without that happening. It’s still only hour 144 though so who knows. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Control looks like its moving due north at 144 ...slowly 

The h5 is swinging too far south. I doubt it gets much further north. You can ignore me but I’m not liking the trend south on 5 consecutive eps runs now. We’re out of any wiggle room. There are too many southern misses for my liking in the 18z eps members.   

[SnowDreamer]

2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Hmm, idk what to think. Almost looks like it missed the 12z euro phase with that energy up near the lakes. That’s a good sign that you guys are killing it even without that happening. Hard for me to know for sure though. The phase impacts Philly and SNE more anyway you guys can do well with this one even without that happening. 

The 12Z OP has started phasing with that bit of energy by then and 18Z Control hasn't, but I think the control is just a little slower judging from the ULL and the SLP position. I think it might still get to about the same place. Something to watch for in the 00Z run. 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Yes. 

And flooding was historic . Susquehanna and Potomac I think 

Lewisburg, PA got blasted by some sort of inverted trough or the like later in the week following the ‘96 blizzard - I think we got even more from that than from the first one. Snow banks were out of control and I remember walking into my fraternity house in waist-deep snow. Folks were clearing their roofs all around town for fear of collapse from the snow.

We flooded really good a couple weeks later, then things refroze pretty quick (if I recall correctly).

[Eskimo Joe]

If I had to be critical, I'd like to see the western ridge be further displayed to the west and the primary low close off at 500mb a few hours earlier and go a bit more negative.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

Any of y’all coming to Richmond to snow chase this one? 

Don’t joke like that...seriously don’t tempt fate. I could see this plastering southern VA in this pattern. 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The h5 is swinging too far south. I doubt it gets much further north. You can ignore me but I’m not liking the trend south on 5 consecutive eps runs now. We’re out of any wiggle room. There are too many southern misses for my liking in the 18z eps members.   

Is that not good?

[ryanconway63]

Im in Northern Neck of VA if anybody wants to chase here.....

[anotherman]

The h5 is swinging too far south. I doubt it gets much further north. You can ignore me but I’m not liking the trend south on 5 consecutive eps runs now. We’re out of any wiggle room. There are too many southern misses for my liking in the 18z eps members.   

Come on....I don’t think we’re to that point yet.

[chris21]

3 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

Im in Northern Neck of VA if anybody wants to chase here.....

We’re still a bit far off for chasing talk.

[Anyweather]

12 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

Any of y’all coming to Richmond to snow chase this one? 

If folks head this way, keep in mind it’s been 2 years without snow and people here can’t drive in it anyway.

[ers-wxman1]

13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The 500mb pattern depicted on the ENS is close to something big but not quite there yet. The best look the Mid Atlantic has had in two years, but ideally we need the western ridge more amplified and further west with the 500 low deepening and closed as it passes south of us and off the coast. Tilt going more negative and a phase to cutoff and keep the CCB going. It’s close, but not quite there yet. Fortunately we have cold high pressure over southern Canada vs that upper low which suppressed the Thursday system. 
Given trends this year, if we continue to see the ECMWF holding the pattern into 72 hours from onset with the ukmet and icon following along we will be in a favorable trend. These models have been consistent in showing the suppression patterns, more conservative. Coastal transfer time and deepening is crucial with Miller B type systems. If the Midwest low is too strong the transfer gets delayed and not favorable per GFS.  Hoping for a win for this forum. But, let’s also keep in mind that the pieces to the puzzle are all being simulated at various points...some outside the U.S. so swings and uncertainty will be factors this far out. I think by Thursday there should be much better consistency and a better picture of where we are headed with this.  Just my two cents.

ERS 

[Interstate]

6 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Come on....I don’t think we’re to that point yet.

I do with how the models have kept shifting south each run on all the past storms 

[Buddy1987]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t joke like that...seriously don’t tempt fate. I could see this plastering southern VA in this pattern. 

I know you’re a realist and always will be and base your emotions off science. I’m just a little surprised how pessimistic you are overall. I still think you get in on the action for sure. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

On Eps 18z the pac backed off some 

Yea I noticed that. The 500 heights were a bit better across Idaho as the energy transversed the midwest. That's big. It the west coast ridge starts washing out then our goose is cooked. So far I don't see that happening.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

I know you’re a realist and always will be and base your emotions off science. I’m just a little surprised how pessimistic you are overall. I still think you get in on the action for sure. 

South trend burns us on Thursday...so I guess before we get comfortable we have to see just how suppressed things get. Perhaps we should be concerned if 0z makes another south trend?

[LeesburgWx]

Is everyone in here freaking out about a south Trend north of DC/VA?

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Come on....I don’t think we’re to that point yet.

Depends...if you look at it AS IS it’s great.  If you project likely future trends based on seasonal model bias it’s iffy.  I would also prefer slightly north because that’s a safer bet. I cannot see given that flow to our north any scenario in which this cuts to the point we don’t get a decent if not warning level snow. Even if it took a gfs like track we probably get 6” before any change up here. I can totally live with that. I just want a snowstorm. But the more the primary trends slower and south and we rely on a coastal yes that could be huge but it also could be us smokin cirrus if the h5 swings too far south.  I would rather it be slightly too far north of perfect on guidance at this range because of the seasonal trends and that gives us way more wiggle room from a complete bust up here. Obviously this is location specific. If I was in VA suppressed would be less of a concern but even there...if you told me DC gets no snow from this I would say it must have been suppressed. I can see ways we miss a hecs by a north track but the only way I see is getting totally screwed us if the storm cuts off and slides out to our south. 

[delgto04]

9 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

The 500mb pattern depicted on the ENS is close to something big but not quite there yet. The best look the Mid Atlantic has had in two years, but ideally we need the western ridge more amplified and further west with the 500 low deepening and closed as it passes south of us and off the coast. Tilt going more negative and a phase to cutoff and keep the CCB going. It’s close, but not quite there yet. Fortunately we have cold high pressure over southern Canada vs that upper low which suppressed the Thursday system. 
Given trends this year, if we continue to see the ECMWF holding the pattern into 72 hours from onset with the ukmet and icon following along we will be in a favorable trend. These models have been consistent in showing the suppression patterns, more conservative. Coastal transfer time and deepening is crucial with Miller B type systems. If the Midwest low is too strong the transfer gets delayed and not favorable per GFS.  Hoping for a win for this forum. But, let’s also keep in mind that the pieces to the puzzle are all being simulated at various points...some outside the U.S. so swings and uncertainty will be factors this far out. I think by Thursday there should be much better consistency and a better picture of where we are headed with this.  Just my two cents.

ERS 

Always respected your analysis and glad to see you posting. I check in a bit but this one has my attention.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Depends...if you look at it AS IS it’s great.  If you project likely future trends based on seasonal model bias it’s iffy.  I would also prefer slightly north because that’s a safer bet. I cannot see given that flow to our north any scenario in which this cuts to the point we don’t get a decent if not warning level snow. Even if it took a gfs like track we probably get 6” before any change up here. I can totally live with that. I just want a snowstorm. But the more the primary trends slower and south and we rely on a coastal yes that could be huge but it also could be us smokin cirrus if the h5 swings too far south.  I would rather it be slightly too far north of perfect on guidance at this range because of the seasonal trends and that gives us way more wiggle room from a complete bust up here. Obviously this is location specific. If I was in VA suppressed would be less of a concern but even there...if you told me DC gets no snow from this I would say it must have been suppressed. I can see ways we miss a hecs by a north track but the only way I see is getting totally screwed us if the storm cuts off and slides out to our south. 

So why is the suppression such a threat (again) here, if the blocking is relaxing? I'm not getting the moving parts here and what has been causing all the squashing we've been seeing lately...

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

The 500mb pattern depicted on the ENS is close to something big but not quite there yet. The best look the Mid Atlantic has had in two years, but ideally we need the western ridge more amplified and further west with the 500 low deepening and closed as it passes south of us and off the coast. Tilt going more negative and a phase to cutoff and keep the CCB going. It’s close, but not quite there yet. Fortunately we have cold high pressure over southern Canada vs that upper low which suppressed the Thursday system. 
Given trends this year, if we continue to see the ECMWF holding the pattern into 72 hours from onset with the ukmet and icon following along we will be in a favorable trend. These models have been consistent in showing the suppression patterns, more conservative. Coastal transfer time and deepening is crucial with Miller B type systems. If the Midwest low is too strong the transfer gets delayed and not favorable per GFS.  Hoping for a win for this forum. But, let’s also keep in mind that the pieces to the puzzle are all being simulated at various points...some outside the U.S. so swings and uncertainty will be factors this far out. I think by Thursday there should be much better consistency and a better picture of where we are headed with this.  Just my two cents.

ERS 

Thanks for the write up. That’s the control btw though. This is the eps mean same time. Just for reference.  

The eps mean is a little better then the 18z control imo.  Control dove the h5 low too far south for my liking.