Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 7:32 PM, TowsonWeather said: Based on...what exactly? The fact that virtually all other guidance has it north? Expand I mean just looking at the euro verbatim if that energy doesn’t dive behind it probably doesn’t bomb like it did. Doesn’t mean no snow just not as much coastal love. The gfs is north for different reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Easy to see where the GEFS and EPS diverge. Both manage to get the SLP into Central MO. Look over the NE. The confluence is completely different. Results in a stronger high on the Eps/Euro. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 7:36 PM, H2O said: I don't get what you are saying? Are you trying to tell me that whats shown now, today, this day of January, the 26th at 2:34pm, might NOT happen in 5 days? Expand Baby...that's exactly what I'm saying. I know this is shocking, but you have to consider that possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 the best part of the last 15 pages i had to catch up on were Andy's images. lol @ him getting 30" though. yeah, okay. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 WAA snows plus the capture and pivot. Usually ends up a lot farther north, No? at least it seems to be a case of HECS vs low end warning snow (GFS) and not major snow vs total miss or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 The 12z JMA is an example of a euro type run without the late capture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 7:37 PM, Wentzadelphia said: I mean just looking at the euro verbatim if that energy doesn’t dive behind it probably doesn’t bomb like it did. Doesn’t mean no snow just not as much coastal love. The gfs is north for different reasons Expand Exactly- without that piece of energy diving in behind it the numbers are dramatically different. Should temper expectations. Be interesting to see where this ends up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 7:32 PM, TowsonWeather said: Based on...what exactly? The fact that virtually all other guidance has it north? Expand It has trended South the last 3 Runs of the Euro. Why would you think its locked in? All Models trended south for the Thursday Event. Euro is the only model that had it locked down and even that trended south some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 7:34 PM, stormtracker said: That's why I said, I wish this wasn't showing now. There's nowhere else to go but down from here. Gonna be a long week with the up and down, see sawing Expand If I remember correctly, our biggest storms (Dec. 2009, Feb 2010, Jan 2016), were pretty consistently modeled 5-7 days ahead of time. We were only tracking who was getting 18", 24", or 36"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 7:38 PM, mappy said: the best part of the last 15 pages i had to catch up on were Andy's images. lol @ him getting 30" though. yeah, okay. Expand My name isn't Andy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 The best part....this storm isn’t named after anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 7:39 PM, ryanconway63 said: It has trended South the last 3 Runs of the Euro. Why would you think its locked in? All Models trended south for the Thursday Event. Euro is the only model that had it locked down and even that trended south some. Expand You can lock it in all you want, but you’re going to hear: “This is the LockPickingLawyer, and what I have for you today, is a WeenieLock6000.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 7:39 PM, Deck Pic said: Expand Cray-cray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 7:41 PM, mattie g said: My name isn't Andy. Expand No, you're Matt(ie). You may see 30", he won't. Rose Hill is sub-sea level with temps at least 10 above everyone else. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 7:32 PM, mattie g said: "I have seen with mine very own Eyes a wondrous Prognostication by the European Model for a winter Snow of such Significance that I can hardly describe in Words the Elation that it has elicited within myself." - Thomas Jefferson, January 20, 1772 Expand Wow the 1772 storm has been invoked, reality can only disappoint now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Trip booked in to D.C. Sunday afternoon 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 7:38 PM, stormtracker said: Baby...that's exactly what I'm saying. I know this is shocking, but you have to consider that possibility. Expand I cannot consider it. It has never happened before. Why would we be tricked this time? What have we done to deserve such foul treatment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 7:43 PM, mappy said: No, you're Matt(ie). You may see 30", he won't. Rose Hill is sub-sea level with temps at least 10 above everyone else. Expand This is just spite and bitterness for being too far north this one model run. You are just mad that DCA had more snow than you last night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 I just actually looked at the euro run on my computer now for the first time. My God that's just perfection. And cold leading into the storm! 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 So we need the GFS to start getting its act together so we get the consensus on a big dog! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 7:43 PM, IronTy said: Wow the 1772 storm has been invoked, reality can only disappoint now. Expand The Younger Dryas had some whoppers like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 7:47 PM, midatlanticweather said: So we need the GFS to start getting its act together so we get the consensus on a big dog! It takes 6 cycles apparently Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 7:47 PM, WxUSAF said: I just actually looked at the euro run on my computer now for the first time. My God that's just perfection. And cold leading into the storm! Expand Yea that's a big plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 7:46 PM, H2O said: This is just spite and bitterness for being too far north this one model run. You are just mad that DCA had more snow than you last night. Expand Is DCA's snow still on the ground right now? Mine still is. seriously though, Euro was beautiful for you, hope it works out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 7:48 PM, RedSky said: The Younger Dryas had some whoppers like this Expand Need to buy some futures in wood to build string instruments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 7:32 PM, IronTy said: Man this is gonna hurt when it all falls apart. Expand You are reaped already so your pain has already been addressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 7:39 PM, ryanconway63 said: It has trended South the last 3 Runs of the Euro. Why would you think its locked in? All Models trended south for the Thursday Event. Euro is the only model that had it locked down and even that trended south some. Expand Ahhhh, you're from Richmond. That explains it. But yes, for sure, there are sound meteorological reasons why this storm, still 5+ days away, will "bump south" a couple times, right into your own backyard, then "lock it in." I can identify no flaws in your analysis. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 7:19 PM, CAPE said: 12z is PERFECT. Expand It is...if we assume there is NO further south adjustment. That’s very possible we’re about the range the euro locked into roughly the final outcome for the last few waves. And there are reasons this won’t be as suppressed. Frankly Thursday wouldn’t have been if not for some really bad luck wrt timing those 2 discreet vorts in front and on top. We see no such countermanding features this time. But it’s hard to ignore the seasonal trend. That and this is just my jam. Fear the fringe! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 7:55 PM, psuhoffman said: It is...if we assume there is NO further south adjustment. That’s very possible we’re about the range the euro locked into roughly the final outcome for the last few waves. And there are reasons this won’t be as suppressed. Frankly Thursday wouldn’t have been if not for some really bad luck wrt timing those 2 discreet vorts in front and on top. We see no such countermanding features this time. But it’s hard to ignore the seasonal trend. That and this is just my jam. Fear the fringe! Expand So I guess at 0z we just wanna see a hold? Oh dear...don't get invested, don't get invested, don't get invested....ahh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 7:53 PM, TowsonWeather said: Ahhhh, you're from Richmond. That explains it. But yes, for sure, there are sound meteorological reasons why this storm, still 5+ days away, will "bump south" a couple times, right into your own backyard, then "lock it in." I can identify no flaws in your analysis. Expand Us Mid-Atlantic weenies are very protective of our back yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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