jaydreb Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Wouldn’t be a big storm without PSU worrying about being fringed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 No reasonable person in this subforum would balk at at the 12z EPS mean. Everyone wins. We all know the northern crew would somehow find a way to push 15" too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Enjoy 8 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 11 minutes ago, ravensrule said: What are we talking about exactly?. I set that up just for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, SnowLover22 said: Enjoy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Seeing closed 500 lows on an ensemble 5 days out is the biggest signal I need to see. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 10 minutes ago, yoda said: Thanks @stormtracker btw for that gif on teh last page... I'm pretty sure that came from you Yeah, I used to use it a lot. This is a special occasion. I'll allow it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Man this is gonna hurt when it all falls apart. 5 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: Seeing closed 500 lows on an ensemble 5 days out is the biggest signal I need to see. Yea. Beyond D3, focus on mid/upper levels. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: Gotta believe this bumps South at least slightly for next run or maybe 2 before in locks in. We have alot more wiggle room it would appear with this storm. Based on...what exactly? The fact that virtually all other guidance has it north? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 17 minutes ago, IronTy said: Nothing like that in 1996 or 1958? "I have seen with mine very own Eyes a wondrous Prognostication by the European Model for a winter Snow of such Significance that I can hardly describe in Words the Elation that it has elicited within myself." - Thomas Jefferson, January 20, 1772 5 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, IronTy said: Man this is gonna hurt when it all falls apart. That's why I said, I wish this wasn't showing now. There's nowhere else to go but down from here. Gonna be a long week with the up and down, see sawing 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 45 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: If we only end up with 6" after this like the GFS is showing, I will never trust the Euro again. Remember we are still many days away, and this run needed a late capture to really get going. I’m as excited as anyone but it could still be a miss but not be a gfs coup. You guys are in a good spot though idc where it hits I’ll chase! Just temper expectations right now too far out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: That's why I said, I wish this wasn't showing now. There's nowhere else to go but down from here. Gonna be a long week with the up and down, see sawing It isn’t even going to fall apart, it’s going to disappear, say just kidding, just kidding, and come back as something more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Remember we are still many days away, and this run needed a late capture to really get going. I’m as excited as anyone but it could still be a miss but not be a gfs coup. You guys are in a good spot though idc where it hits I’ll chase! Just temper expectations right now too far out Thank you Dr. Phil. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: That's why I said, I wish this wasn't showing now. There's nowhere else to go but down from here. Gonna be a long week with the up and down, see sawing I don't get what you are saying? Are you trying to tell me that whats shown now, today, this day of January, the 26th at 2:34pm, might NOT happen in 5 days? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: Based on...what exactly? The fact that virtually all other guidance has it north? I mean just looking at the euro verbatim if that energy doesn’t dive behind it probably doesn’t bomb like it did. Doesn’t mean no snow just not as much coastal love. The gfs is north for different reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Easy to see where the GEFS and EPS diverge. Both manage to get the SLP into Central MO. Look over the NE. The confluence is completely different. Results in a stronger high on the Eps/Euro. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, H2O said: I don't get what you are saying? Are you trying to tell me that whats shown now, today, this day of January, the 26th at 2:34pm, might NOT happen in 5 days? Baby...that's exactly what I'm saying. I know this is shocking, but you have to consider that possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 the best part of the last 15 pages i had to catch up on were Andy's images. lol @ him getting 30" though. yeah, okay. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 WAA snows plus the capture and pivot. Usually ends up a lot farther north, No? at least it seems to be a case of HECS vs low end warning snow (GFS) and not major snow vs total miss or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 The 12z JMA is an example of a euro type run without the late capture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: I mean just looking at the euro verbatim if that energy doesn’t dive behind it probably doesn’t bomb like it did. Doesn’t mean no snow just not as much coastal love. The gfs is north for different reasons Exactly- without that piece of energy diving in behind it the numbers are dramatically different. Should temper expectations. Be interesting to see where this ends up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: Based on...what exactly? The fact that virtually all other guidance has it north? It has trended South the last 3 Runs of the Euro. Why would you think its locked in? All Models trended south for the Thursday Event. Euro is the only model that had it locked down and even that trended south some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: That's why I said, I wish this wasn't showing now. There's nowhere else to go but down from here. Gonna be a long week with the up and down, see sawing If I remember correctly, our biggest storms (Dec. 2009, Feb 2010, Jan 2016), were pretty consistently modeled 5-7 days ahead of time. We were only tracking who was getting 18", 24", or 36"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: the best part of the last 15 pages i had to catch up on were Andy's images. lol @ him getting 30" though. yeah, okay. My name isn't Andy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 The best part....this storm isn’t named after anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, ryanconway63 said: It has trended South the last 3 Runs of the Euro. Why would you think its locked in? All Models trended south for the Thursday Event. Euro is the only model that had it locked down and even that trended south some. You can lock it in all you want, but you’re going to hear: “This is the LockPickingLawyer, and what I have for you today, is a WeenieLock6000.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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