Grothar of Herndon Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 2:57 PM, Weather Will said: More optimistic since the EPS looks to support a snow event early next week. Trying to keep expectations in check because Thursday is still in the back of my mind....it looked good for a couple of EURO runs too, but not remembering the control or EPS ever being that enthusiastic for Thursday’s non event. Expand Agree that the upcoming Sunday-Monday event has more support than the missed opportunity for this Thursday. Let's hope the trend continues in a positive direction for the Sunday-Monday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 12:43 PM, Weather Will said: GFS Para at 6Z has weekend storm north of our area. Hopefully EURO 6Z EPS remains bullish. Expand DC has had 1 warning event in 6 years and were tossing a 6-8” snowstorm as a fail now????? 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 So what type of storm is this potentially, other than a Coastal? I saw mention of a Heather A on Anthony Masiello's twitter comments. But then, someone mentioned a Miller B. My understanding is that we don't do well with a Miller B. I have never heard of a Heather A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 3:01 PM, snowmagnet said: So what type of storm is this potentially, other than a Coastal? I saw mention of a Heather A on Anthony Masiello's twitter comments. But then, someone mentioned a Miller B. My understanding is that we don't do well with a Miller B. I have never heard of a Heather A. Expand A Heather A is bigger than a Becky C, but not as memorable as Chuck D. 3 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 3:00 PM, Ji said: the euro never looked good for THursday. IT was awful...every run Expand Actually, not true. It had a great storm very early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 3:01 PM, snowmagnet said: So what type of storm is this potentially, other than a Coastal? I saw mention of a Heather A on Anthony Masiello's twitter comments. But then, someone mentioned a Miller B. My understanding is that we don't do well with a Miller B. I have never heard of a Heather A. Expand Miller B hybrid (I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 3:00 PM, psuhoffman said: DC has had 1 warning event in 6 years and were tossing a 6-8” snowstorm as a fail now????? Expand Man rescued from desert island rejects large pizza. Holding out for all you can eat Alaskan king crab legs and filet mignon. 5 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 3:00 PM, psuhoffman said: DC has had 1 warning event in 6 years and were tossing a 6-8” snowstorm as a fail now????? Expand Spot on. Given what’s transpired over the last several winters in no world should 6-8 be a disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 ICON is a very nice hit. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 what woman did her dr thesis on the NAO and east coast storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 3:25 PM, LP08 said: ICON is a very nice hit. Expand Pretty great opener to 12z. Wonky surface depiction (the snow in SE VA is from Thursday), but my takeaway was that at precip onset, temperatures are actually pretty cold, mid 20s for a majority of the subforum 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 3:30 PM, Cobalt said: Pretty great opener to 12z. Wonky surface depiction (the snow in SE VA is from Thursday), but my takeaway was that at precip onset, temperatures are actually pretty cold, mid 20s for a majority of the subforum Expand I have a good feeling about the 12z suite... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 3:30 PM, Cobalt said: Pretty great opener to 12z. Wonky surface depiction (the snow in SE VA is from Thursday), but my takeaway was that at precip onset, temperatures are actually pretty cold, mid 20s for a majority of the subforum Expand Its a sloppy-ish phase (kind of what Ralph was alluding to) and the Surface doesn't get captured until its just north of us but still throws more snow at us 150hr+. Ok enough ICON talk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Icon has always seemed to hate snow so that's something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 12:49 PM, leesburg 04 said: So is the euro all by itself showing a massive storm? Doesn't Ji have a peer reviewed theory on that? Expand I think the 00Z UKMET if extended would be good. It has the primary low in Kentucky and the secondary forming in eastern NC with you under a pretty good wedge. 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 3:32 PM, LP08 said: Its a sloppy-ish phase (kind of what Ralph was alluding to) and the Surface doesn't get captured until its just north of us but still throws more snow at us 150hr+. Ok enough ICON talk Expand Oh okay yeah the precip was still rolling with those panels, keeps DC and even immediate SE below 30 degrees but precip is spotty there, but ICON on board with a good storm. Pretty sure precip is still going in this panel for a fair bit of the subforum, but it's the ICON so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 3:36 PM, Cobalt said: Oh okay yeah the precip was still rolling with those panels, keeps DC and even immediate SE below 30 degrees but precip is spotty there, but ICON on board with a good storm. Pretty sure precip is still going in this panel for a fair bit of the subforum, but it's the ICON so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Expand Lol...It snows from 126 to the end of the run. Might be a record duration. Wild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 3:38 PM, LP08 said: Lol...It snows from 126 to the end of the run. Might be a record duration. Wild. Expand The low just... meanders. The fact that this GIF takes up like 5% of my attachment space shows that yeah it's pretty lengthy lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 3:38 PM, LP08 said: Lol...It snows from 126 to the end of the run. Might be a record duration. Wild. Expand Best part I like is the high slides in tandem with the approaching LP and with precipitation arrival down this way 2m temps are in the negative in NY state, signifying the cold air is entrenched. Normally we are all complaining and stressing for the fact that the high is bailing and exiting stage right. That’s def one thing to keep an eye on in future runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Yeah. the ICON is cold smoke. Low 20's with the snow ripping. Please let that wretched model be right for once. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Almost every model shows a very long duration event in some form or another. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 3:38 PM, LP08 said: Lol...It snows from 126 to the end of the run. Might be a record duration. Wild. Expand ICON is a huge hit. Fun to look at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 3:42 PM, nj2va said: ICON is a huge hit. Fun to look at. Expand I think.. it's still going after 180? Precip panels not showing up for that timeframe but it appears so. Absolute eye candy, but at least it's not on a complete island... edit: yeah it keeps us snowing through 180 and maybe beyond lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 ICON actually drops surface temps from the mid 20's to mid teens during the event. This might be the one ya'll. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 GFS gives OBX snow on Thursday...the NC12 traffic cameras would be fun to look at. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 If verified, don't think anyone in the subforum would have less than 3 inches (S/SW of ocean city). Usual caveats with 10:1 maps. When's the last time everyone was able to walk away with something like that, no fringing? But let's wait and see what the more well regarded models have to say shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 There’s a met on the philly forum that has a rule about how it rarely snows unless the icon shows snow falling lol. It’s a good sign to have this model showing snow. The main takeaway from this run is there could be aN epic CCB somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 1:20 PM, losetoa6 said: It's better then 0z . Quicker further south transfer Expand 0z bullseyed northern VA. I don’t think we want it to keep trending south at this point. It’s good...especially for us...right now. 6z was good. Just pointing that out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 3:01 PM, snowmagnet said: So what type of storm is this potentially, other than a Coastal? I saw mention of a Heather A on Anthony Masiello's twitter comments. But then, someone mentioned a Miller B. My understanding is that we don't do well with a Miller B. I have never heard of a Heather A. Expand Heather A did a study where large east coast storms tend to form when there is a phase change from an ongoing pattern such as a -nao chanhgang to a positive etc. it’s not equivalent to Miller a or b 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 3:50 PM, psuhoffman said: 0z bullseyed northern VA. I don’t think we want it to keep trending south at this point. It’s good...especially for us...right now. 6z was good. Just pointing that out. Expand It is interesting you say that because some Mets are actually playing the Miller A North of us game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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