WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 38 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I followed it on the weather channel back then . Tornado outbreak to blizzard and all in between Consider ... a storm that stretched from Canada to Honduras ... 4” of snow in the Florida panhandle, in Mid March .... 69” of snow in Mt. LeConte in Tn. ... 100 mph winds .... 960 mb pressure 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 23 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: I forget which one it was, but one of those storms had the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen for a sustained period. White out and thunder for a few hours it was incredible. You’re thinking of March 7-8 2018. That one totally screwed me. One of the worst short range busts here in a long time. EVERY piece of guidance was giving me 6-10” of snow literally 12 hours before it was supposed to start. But miller b transfers are always tricky and the low developed about 50 miles east of expected and I got fringed. Only about an inch. The big storm later in the month took the sting out of that one a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You’re thinking of March 7-8 2018. That one totally screwed me. One of the worst short range busts here in a long time. EVERY piece of guidance was giving me 6-10” of snow literally 12 hours before it was supposed to start. But miller b transfers are always tricky and the low developed about 50 miles east of expected and I got fringed. Only about an inch. The big storm later in the month took the sting out of that one a little. That the one where that GL low screwed up something in the timing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 You’re thinking of March 7-8 2018. That one totally screwed me. One of the worst short range busts here in a long time. EVERY piece of guidance was giving me 6-10” of snow literally 12 hours before it was supposed to start. But miller b transfers are always tricky and the low developed about 50 miles east of expected and I got fringed. Only about an inch. The big storm later in the month took the sting out of that one a little. That march was incredibly frustrating with near misses ...kinda like this January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 35 minutes ago, frd said: You still feel with better spacing this might be the one ? This potential storm has support across several models and ensembles, not that it means much, but just saying. It has potential. But so did Thursday. Look at this... that’s beautiful if you just get rid of that freaking crap wave that decides to stall and sit over the northeast all week (it’s still snowing up there as the Thursday wave passes to the south) and that stupid mini TPV on top. The NE wave is preventing the ridging from going up as well we pulling the 50/50 westward and the tpv is flattening the flow on top. The combo keeps the wave progressive and positively tilted and it ends to being absorbed and phasing with all 3 features into the Atlantic vortex. The fact they all phase into a monster vortex gives us a do over though by recycling the pattern one more time before it breaks down. But there are some subtle differences. There is slightly more space. The western ridge is further west. It’s still east of the canonical Boise ridge but that’s ok because this wave is coming in pretty far north and going negative early and so we need the ridge axis east to shove it to the coast. Otherwise it would stall and even with the block that’s to good. The blocking is in the stages of breaking down which should allow more amplification. The wildcard is the wave coming in so far north. That makes it less likely this gets squashed south but it’s flirting dangerously with a miller b screw job if the blocking relaxes too much too early and it jumps too far north. That’s the bigger fail threat with this one imo. So there are some things I like more about this threat. Some less. Both looked good from this range. Remember both of the features that screwed us Thursday weren’t there from long range. So we have to see if some discreet features not yet showing start to pop up that could interfere. Two things I don’t want to see is slowing down. The blocking is breaking down so we don’t want it taking too long. The other is too much energy on the lead wave of the trough which could drive the primary too far north. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It has potential. But so did Thursday. Look at this... that’s beautiful if you just get rid of that freaking crap wave that decides to stall and sit over the northeast all week (it’s still snowing up there as the Thursday wave passes to the south) and that stupid mini TPV on top. The NE wave is preventing the ridging from going up as well we pulling the 50/50 westward and the tpv is flattening the flow on top. The combo keeps the wave progressive and positively tilted and it ends to being absorbed and phasing with all 3 features into the Atlantic vortex. The fact they all phase into a monster vortex gives us a do over though by recycling the pattern one more time before it breaks down. But there are some subtle differences. There is slightly more space. The western ridge is further west. It’s still east of the canonical Boise ridge but that’s ok because this wave is coming in pretty far north and going negative early and so we need the ridge axis east to shove it to the coast. Otherwise it would stall and even with the block that’s to good. The blocking is in the stages of breaking down which should allow more amplification. The wildcard is the wave coming in so far north. That makes it less likely this gets squashed south but it’s flirting dangerously with a miller b screw job if the blocking relaxes too much too early and it jumps too far north. That’s the bigger fail threat with this one imo. So there are some things I like more about this threat. Some less. Both looked good from this range. Remember both of the features that screwed us Thursday weren’t there from long range. So we have to see if some discreet features not yet showing start to pop up that could interfere. Two things I don’t want to see is slowing down. The blocking is breaking down so we don’t want it taking too long. The other is too much energy on the lead wave of the trough which could drive the primary too far north. Sounds complicated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Icon starting off 0z with a nice shift and it's a good one through 126 Yeppers my friend looks really nice 135, secondary forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I could have used a break. It feels too soon to be jumping in bed with the next one. I feel kinda dirty and cheap like this is just the rebound storm. 3 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: I could have used a break. It feels too soon to be jumping in bed with the next one. I feel kinda dirty and cheap like this is just the rebound storm. Remember to use protection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, cbmclean said: Remember to use protection. We have protection. It’s called living in the mid Atlantic. Best **** blocker there is. 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I could have used a break. It feels too soon to be jumping in bed with the next one. I feel kinda dirty and cheap like this is just the rebound storm. Dude I hear ya, lol It's too soon! (unless it actually produces)...I'm trying to live a better mental life after Thursday's disappointment...and now here this comes to tempt me, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Damn, New England ìs going to get annihilated this run. This is their storm to lose imo. But when they r in the bullseye 6 days out it usually doesn't trend worse for them does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I see the forum has solidly transitioned to late-night mode. I'm for it... The Icon looks pretty good to me. Nice thump and closer to some wrap-around snow than 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I could have used a break. It feels too soon to be jumping in bed with the next one. I feel kinda dirty and cheap like this is just the rebound storm. Same...but ICON portends something good. Nice shift south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Damn, New England ìs going to get annihilated this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Damn, New England ìs going to get annihilated this run. Yeah, that’s chase worthy plus we do well too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I think some possible good news rolling forward is the cross polar flow I’m seeing on the mid-long range gfs. Our blocking breaks down a bit and trough drops in out west. However, I look at the timing of a lack of Greenland blocking coinciding with a -PNA as possibly a good thing. If we can indeed recycle a block, it’s just a matter of time before we get a transient +PNA. With a colder source region and (hopefully) higher heights in the NAO domain, with shorter wave lengths approaching maybe we get the SS to become more active. I’m liking finally getting cold on this side of the northern hemisphere as we approach February and March which can be dynamic and moist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It has potential. But so did Thursday. Look at this Excellent recap psu , thanks ! Grateful we have another opportunity, maybe this time things work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Icon lookin plentyyyyy cold enough at 141 Snow starting at 129 per icon It trended better...a decent WAA front end snow...but the big show ends up in New England... transfer is too slow and messy and the upper levels never close off until too late... DC stays all frozen though snow to sleet to dryslot. Yea I know it shows green on TT but its well below freezing the whole storm...enough so that its probably sleet v freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Same...but ICON portends something good. Nice shift south. Kinda hard not to feel like we want this a little north still at this stage given the seasonal trend since the NAO block went up right after New Years...I can't remember a single wave Since Jan 1 that didn't trend south. And some of them were literally cutters day 10 that ended up way south of us in reality, teasing us for a day or two during the transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It trended better...a decent WAA front end snow...but the big show ends up in New England... transfer is too slow and messy and the upper levels never close off until too late... DC stays all frozen though snow to sleet to dryslot. Yea I know it shows green on TT but its well below freezing the whole storm...enough so that its probably sleet v freezing rain. Can we move to a hybrid where it's less pure Miller A and a evolution of 1958? Wonder when the modeling will correctly gauge the block and the upstream features? Will be cool to see if the impact zone shifts further South( from New England) closer to our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Kinda hard not to feel like we want this a little north still at this stage given the seasonal trend since the NAO block went up right after New Years...I can't remember a single wave Since Jan 1 that didn't trend south. And some of them were literally cutters day 10 that ended up way south of us in reality, teasing us for a day or two during the transition. Gonna be kinda funny to see just how far south it gets...just how far north was this modeled just a couple days ago? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Gfs looks way different with sw...souther and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Gfs looks way different with sw...souther and stronger Souther...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 12 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: I think some possible good news rolling forward is the cross polar flow I’m seeing on the mid-long range gfs. Our blocking breaks down a bit and trough drops in out west. However, I look at the timing of a lack of Greenland blocking coinciding with a -PNA as possibly a good thing. If we can indeed recycle a block, it’s just a matter of time before we get a transient +PNA. With a colder source region and (hopefully) higher heights in the NAO domain, with shorter wave lengths approaching maybe we get the SS to become more active. I’m liking finally getting cold on this side of the northern hemisphere as we approach February and March which can be dynamic and moist. That would be one way to go...or if the -NAO rebuilds we could get another setup like the next week with systems cutting through the ridge in the east under the block...but with enough cold in the pattern that can work. Get enough of a block and the whole trough could end up spreading east and we could get waves along the boundary. There are lots of options with the -NAO -EPO look in the long range. Yes there are higher heights along the east coast but that is not a bad pattern imo and I bet would look different when it gets closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Well the s/w in NW TX is nearly closed off at 108 on h5... 114 h5 at 18z wasn't even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, frd said: Can we move to a hybrid where it's less pure Miller A and a evolution of 1958? Wonder when the modeling will correctly gauge the block and the upstream features? Will be cool to see if the impact zone shifts further South( from New England) closer to our area. The south trend has been when storms get under 200 hours and usually continues until about 100 hours...from there on in the shifts become a lot less significant and more fine tuning details. Some even do end up nudging north some the final 48 hours...but by then they were all so squashed it didnt matter to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: Well the s/w in NW TX is nearly closed off at 108 on h5... 114 h5 at 18z wasn't even close Rotates into S MO at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Primary may be too strong? Pretty amazing that a sw in cali Friday can bring precip to va Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Snowing at DCA at 126 ETA: still snowing at 132... but getting mixy just south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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