LP08 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Almost every member is a snowstorm. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 GFS is quite chilly following the storm for a couple days which leads to some frozen for the next wave. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 GEFS...strong clustering N and W (108 and 114): 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Almost every member is a snowstorm. Love it. it can stay right where it is though ... don't want to wake up to 34 degree rain in Lynchburg on Thursday morning with 6" on the ground back home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS...strong clustering N and W (108 and 114): i like that! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 why is icon not there yet?...look how S and E the TPV is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 @Ralph Wiggum dug this up...that gfs track and intensity was pretty identical to a previous storm with similar strong blocking. This doesn’t have the same upside because it’s moving faster and doesn’t have the same stj juice but this gives an idea of what the precip representation for a storm of that amplitude and that track should look like. Some differences. The primary was a little stronger to the west initially and after that point above the Feb 2010 storm gained SLIGHTY more latitude but by then it was occluding and the precip was sinking southeast anyways. I would obviously scale back the qpf a lot here and I would shift the northern fringe south maybe 20 miles. But just saying if that gfs track and intensity was correct the results into southern PA would be a lot better. But there would be a brick wall somewhere not far north of Philly. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 0z CMC is 3-6” area wide. EDIT: Storm drops 22 mb in 6 hours. From 992 to 970. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 WB 0Z GEFS prob maps...3, 6, 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 i always thought that when there was strong blocking==there would be a better chance for a slower/even stalled storm lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: 0z CMC is 3-6” area wide. yea thats a big no for me boss 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 GFS is a nice run after this storm as well. Patience finally paying off?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 0Z GEFS prob maps...3, 6, 12 Here's the probability of 1" of snow just to get the full picture: Compared to 18z and yeah you can tell which is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Good evening, snow weenies! I await your arrival so I can crush your dreams in about an hour and three quarters!! 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Damn its been 30 hours already 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: 0z CMC is 3-6” area wide. EDIT: Storm drops 22 mb in 6 hours. From 992 to 970. That map includes a modest contribution from the Monday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ji said: something feels off..... oh i know what it is. the euro gives us more snow Monday night than Thursday Yes, it did 11 hours ago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS is a nice run after this storm as well. Patience finally paying off?? heather would be proud 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, high risk said: That map includes a modest contribution from the Monday event. If we are dreaming then backing that bomb west and slowing a bit would be fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 27 minutes ago, Ji said: how do we get the upper level low to slow/close just to our west? Yes, And it will slow down through the middle of the country it always does inside 72hrs, Of course the confluence can still shove it out to sea if it doesn't lift out somewhat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 GEFS looks really good. Big jump up in snow means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 can we change the name of this thread...there is only one storm to talk about in the this thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Lol, UKMET snowfall totals South 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Stop judging runs by snow maps. Cmc was an improvement. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Geps as predicted lost that weird split wave look. Back to looking like other guidance. It’s south of the gefs and significantly weaker though. But at least it’s back to the right progression. Targets central VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 TPV is not helping here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: TPV is not helping here it is significantly further south suppressing the heights. Important frames upcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: TPV is not helping here What is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Only positive it seems is the sw is stronger coming at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: What is that? Tropospheric Polar Vortex 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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