SnowLover22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: My only issue with that is how did things change THAT much over the past several years? 2013-2014 is the coldest, snowiest wall-to-wall winter I can remember in my lifetime. 2014-2015 finished cold and snowy. 2016 had a massive blizzard. March has been a colder, snowier month recently. It's obviously happening and having some kind of impact, but for the impact to be THAT massive in just several years? my guess is positive feedback loop. The warmer it gets the less snow there is so it is able to get warmer even faster. Also it being a la Nina is a factor. I think we can all agree that a el Nino with a -AO/NAO would have produced a colder result for us. If I am wrong someone please chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The 6z and 00z gfs would have had ptype issues too but they were just stronger, closed off earlier, and thus dynamics took over in the ccb much faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Seems like we are moving towards a 4-8 inch event on this for a bunch of us. I’d like to be upset, but that’s a bonanza over the last two years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: There were some seriously funny and erroneous early calls in here with that gfs run. I'll take it verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Pretty sure DC folks would be thrilled with a "run of the mill" storm. Cant speak for you tho. He can never be satisfied, unless its a KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Here is a scary thought...Dec and Jan are going to finish VERY -AO/NAO. I guarantee you this will be by far the warmest such two month period and it’s likely not even close. I think a big reason is that it’s pretty rare historically to see that sort of combo in a mod Niña. Now this winter has acted more as a raging El Niño pattern wise than a mod Niña up until the recent shift of that ridge in the PAC which is more a Niña signal. I just feel that if we tried inserting a raging -AO/NAO combo into winters like 98-99 or 88-89 it still would have been mild. The PAC state just usually is too crappy to overcome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GEFS certainly not horrible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Gonna be a legendary fail for someone. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Powerhouse 1008 low. Solid WWA event on CMC. If I can lock in a 3-5” event right now you’d never hear a complaint or a peep out of me just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Somebody needs to at least mention what an impressive storm the gfs is. Look at that monster off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 12z GEFS mean at 123 is pretty nice tho lol ETA: ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Here is a scary thought...Dec and Jan are going to finish VERY -AO/NAO. I guarantee you this will be by far the warmest such two month period and it’s likely not even close. And we are usually cold in a -AO -NAO set up wonder why that is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: He can never be satisfied, unless its a KU. According to him even then he's still stressed during the storm and then disappointed when it's over and the snow starts melting. (and I'm not making that up, lol) It makes absolutely no sense...and I thought my snow psychology was wonky, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 As for the cmc, I don’t like it. I want as jacked up of a low as I can get. If it rains, eff it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, yoda said: GEFS mean at 123 is pretty nice tho lol Yes, WB 12Z GEFS holds firm!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: He can never be satisfied, unless its a KU. Even during a KU, he'd be here in this thread fretting over a day 10 plot that shows early spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: For whatever meteorological reason, the GFS snow maps have been like a slow tire leak the last three runs ... From 24” to 2.4” is more than a slow leak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Blend all of models right now and you probably get something similar to what the CMC is showing...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: The 6z and 00z gfs would have had ptype issues too but they were just stronger, closed off earlier, and thus dynamics took over in the ccb much faster Almost all of the members that got good snow here were warmish/rainy to start. Not many southern tracks either. Still pretty far out, but it appears this will have to evolve almost perfectly wrt to strength and track. What else is new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 13 minutes ago, GEOS5ftw said: GFS showing my concern from last night about the lingering low up in PA preventing the cold press in the boundary layer. Thus we rely on dynamic cooling which is going to be very dependent on where the bands set up (if this gets within meso range, expect to see colder sfc temps line up with heavier precip). Weaker system means we lose this effect and get rain. Good news I guess is that this is the bias I'd expect the GFS to show at this range and the para looks good. I'd still rather see the progression that Canadian was showing last night - it moved the low out of PA faster and had a better CAD setup ahead of the storm. But it is trending towards the GFS setup at 12Z. Sounds like an early March Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 What's nice about the Para is that it has an expansive region of snow compared to its preceding 2 runs. Pushes solid snow amounts east to the coast and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GFS classic won’t be the final solution anyway. So no reason to fret. Save that negative energy for 1:30 pm today. 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: GFS classic won’t be the final solution anyway. So no reason to fret. Save that negative energy for 1:30 pm today. My thought exactly, maybe we ultimately get what the EURO is showing but to think it's a lock now is absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Yes, WB 12Z GEFS holds firm!!! In the GEFS we trust!! It’s been solid No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 My Guess is the Euro will be a step toward the CMC solution but not quite as good...... would love to see the Euro pick up on something and turn it more towards a GFS type solution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Quasievil said: My thought exactly, maybe what ultimately get what the EURO is showing but to think it's a lock now is absurd. Temps are almost always a concern here. More so this year. The problem with those weenie runs is setting the expectation bar too high. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 This euro love is misplaced. Not that I trust the gfs because I think that model is off its rocker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS certainly not horrible 12z introduces more southern (miss) solutions than 6z. Nothing to worry about. Still looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 WB 12Z GEFS snow maps pretty impressive still... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Trimmed some of the massive hits NW but expanded the general overall look. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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