Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yea if that setup doesn’t “work” I’m not even sure what we’re tracking anymore. How do we know this isn't unique to just this season, though? You mentioned yesterday about the PV pushing cold to the other side of the globe and the fall torch...how do we know that's not what's doing this? I mean...It still snowed in the 2018-19 winter, didn't it? How do we get snow in the south, and even the January system that year, if the overall base state is bad? And with last year's +++++++++++AO...can we even count that year? Lol Maybe I'm thinking about these things too simplistically, or maybe I'm just looking for optimism, but...I'm just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: lol, yeah, para finally joins and GFS shits the bed worst than Weather Will posting 16,459 maps with terrible and/or obvious editorials. WB says come back in mid Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think it’s maybe time to stop tip toeing around it. We all know what the issue is. Yup. And we have to find the New Englander who is putting the hex on us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ji said: that hole over my house is pretty funny. I think God is really punishing me. I might be the Jonah of this board Sounds about right- Jonah’s Wintry Mix. Confess. Did you buy a snowblower and curse us? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Here is a scary thought...Dec and Jan are going to finish VERY -AO/NAO. I guarantee you this will be by far the warmest such two month period and it’s likely not even close. Your good buddy JB pointed out yesterday that this may have been the warmest winter on record if there wasn't prolonged blocking. Scary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Canadian looks better than 0z at H5. Surface is a little south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think it’s maybe time to stop tip toeing around it. We all know what the issue is. My only issue with that is how did things change THAT much over the past several years? 2013-2014 is the coldest, snowiest wall-to-wall winter I can remember in my lifetime. 2014-2015 finished cold and snowy. 2016 had a massive blizzard. March has been a colder, snowier month recently. It's obviously happening and having some kind of impact, but for the impact to be THAT massive in just several years? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Canadian looks better than 0z at H5. Surface is a little south. At least the CMC is all snow from 117 on at DCA lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GGEM is pretty much a disaster. Run of the mill storm...look much more like euro than GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, yoda said: At least the CMC is all snow from 117 on at DCA lol I jumped the gun. It’s a weaker overall sw even though heights were better out front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 There were some seriously funny and erroneous early calls in here with that gfs run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: I jumped the gun. It’s a weaker overall sw even though heights were better out front. i'll take the 4-8 all day every day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ji said: GGEM is pretty much a disaster. Run of the mill storm...look much more like euro than GFS Powerhouse 1008 low. Solid WWA event on CMC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: I jumped the gun. It’s a weaker overall sw even though heights were better out front. I'd take weaker SW and all snow over the "pray for dynamic cooling" rain bomb potential from the GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ji said: GGEM is pretty much a disaster. Run of the mill storm...look much more like euro than GFS Pretty sure DC folks would be thrilled with a "run of the mill" storm. Cant speak for you tho. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 For whatever meteorological reason, the GFS snow maps have been like a slow tire leak the last three runs ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: My only issue with that is how did things change THAT much over the past several years? 2013-2014 is the coldest, snowiest wall-to-wall winter I can remember in my lifetime. 2014-2015 finished cold and snowy. 2016 had a massive blizzard. March has been a colder, snowier month recently. It's obviously happening and having some kind of impact, but for the impact to be THAT massive in just several years? my guess is positive feedback loop. The warmer it gets the less snow there is so it is able to get warmer even faster. Also it being a la Nina is a factor. I think we can all agree that a el Nino with a -AO/NAO would have produced a colder result for us. If I am wrong someone please chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The 6z and 00z gfs would have had ptype issues too but they were just stronger, closed off earlier, and thus dynamics took over in the ccb much faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Seems like we are moving towards a 4-8 inch event on this for a bunch of us. I’d like to be upset, but that’s a bonanza over the last two years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: There were some seriously funny and erroneous early calls in here with that gfs run. I'll take it verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Pretty sure DC folks would be thrilled with a "run of the mill" storm. Cant speak for you tho. He can never be satisfied, unless its a KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Here is a scary thought...Dec and Jan are going to finish VERY -AO/NAO. I guarantee you this will be by far the warmest such two month period and it’s likely not even close. I think a big reason is that it’s pretty rare historically to see that sort of combo in a mod Niña. Now this winter has acted more as a raging El Niño pattern wise than a mod Niña up until the recent shift of that ridge in the PAC which is more a Niña signal. I just feel that if we tried inserting a raging -AO/NAO combo into winters like 98-99 or 88-89 it still would have been mild. The PAC state just usually is too crappy to overcome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GEFS certainly not horrible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Gonna be a legendary fail for someone. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Powerhouse 1008 low. Solid WWA event on CMC. If I can lock in a 3-5” event right now you’d never hear a complaint or a peep out of me just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Somebody needs to at least mention what an impressive storm the gfs is. Look at that monster off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 12z GEFS mean at 123 is pretty nice tho lol ETA: ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Here is a scary thought...Dec and Jan are going to finish VERY -AO/NAO. I guarantee you this will be by far the warmest such two month period and it’s likely not even close. And we are usually cold in a -AO -NAO set up wonder why that is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: He can never be satisfied, unless its a KU. According to him even then he's still stressed during the storm and then disappointed when it's over and the snow starts melting. (and I'm not making that up, lol) It makes absolutely no sense...and I thought my snow psychology was wonky, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 As for the cmc, I don’t like it. I want as jacked up of a low as I can get. If it rains, eff it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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