heavy_wx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 20 minutes ago, CAPE said: It was close. Looking at h5, there are some subtle differences between the Euro and GFS. The biggest one may be the spacing between the developing shortwave and the big NA vortex. A bit more on the GFS, and so it is able to develop more ridging out in front. Yes, the GFS keeps the 500-mb shortwave mostly coherent as it propagates from AZ on 12z Tuesday to the OH river valley, where it acquires a negative tilt.The shortwave on the Euro loses its coherence over the southwest, keeping some of the energy delayed as the feature moves eastward. The result is a flatter, positively tilted shortwave that produces less favorable interaction with the developing surface low. There's definitely potential with this system for snow in the mid-Atlantic, but I think there's too much uncertainty right now in how these features will evolve to be confident in any operational model solution. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, heavy_wx said: Yes, the GFS keeps the 500-mb shortwave mostly coherent as it propagates from AZ on 12z Tuesday to the OH river valley, where it acquires a negative tilt.The shortwave on the Euro loses its coherence over the southwest, keeping some of the energy delayed as the feature moves eastward. The result is a flatter, positively tilted shortwave that produces less favorable interaction with the developing surface low. There's definitely potential with this system for snow in the mid-Atlantic, but I think there's too much uncertainty right now in how these features will evolve to be confident in any operational model solution. Would you consider that to be a bias of the euro with s/w ejection with systems coming out of the southwest like we’ve seen in past storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Why has no one posted this weather porn? 5 1 1 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6z eps is a little better. Still nothing like GEFS but certainly an improvement 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Para-GFS looks similar to its 0z run, FWIW, more south than OP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 This is good info to know. From our Philly board met. “If the GFS went off the rails, it takes about 30 hours of runs to self correct because it uses its own 6 hr forecast to adjust initial conditions. Hence if it is an error, it gets perpetuated in future runs until a pair of sounding runs expunge it. The Euro starts from scratch each sounding run. So by the 00z run tonight we will know” 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Would you consider that to be a bias of the euro with s/w ejection with systems coming out of the southwest like we’ve seen in past storms? Good question; I'm not sure if the differences in the shortwave evolution are caused by something inherent in the model dynamics or differences in the model initial conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Where are you getting the PARA GFS now? TT isnt showing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, ryanconway63 said: Where are you getting the PARA GFS now? TT isnt showing it pivotalweather has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 WB 6Z ensembles EPS, control, GEFS, Can 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Will be an epic fail for EURO if GFS wins this battle ....6Z EPS not showing much compared to 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 At 132....one of these is going to look pretty awful. Couldnt be further apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: Will be an epic fail for EURO....6Z EPS not showing much compared to 0Z. Admittedly I have an unnerving feeling about this one, especially after the reading above where the GFS if it is wrong takes several runs to adjust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The 6z Para GFS seems most realistic to me at this point. I cant get excited with what the Euro is currently showing.....If a MECS was coming the Euro will definitely pick up on it by 12z today. If not ill remain extremely skeptical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Admittedly I have an unnerving feeling about this one, especially after the reading above where the GFS if it is wrong takes several runs to adjust. Agreed...Euro does not normally fail within five days. Although the Canadian would be the compromise solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, ryanconway63 said: The 6z Para GFS seems most realistic to me at this point. I cant get excited with what the Euro is currently showing.....If a MECS was coming the Euro will definitely pick up on it by 12z today. If not ill remain extremely skeptical Not sure we can make any definitive statements on this one yet... the models have been struggling mightily in this pattern. It’s been really tough to even search for trends... every time it seems there is one, the models shift the next suite. I’d keep an open mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Admittedly I have an unnerving feeling about this one, especially after the reading above where the GFS if it is wrong takes several runs to adjust. Did that rule work when the gfs went from a historic SC storm to a historic NC storm to a historic Lynchburg storm to a historic Norfolk storm to a historic nova storm in 3 days 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 15 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: This is good info to know. From our Philly board met. “If the GFS went off the rails, it takes about 30 hours of runs to self correct because it uses its own 6 hr forecast to adjust initial conditions. Hence if it is an error, it gets perpetuated in future runs until a pair of sounding runs expunge it. The Euro starts from scratch each sounding run. So by the 00z run tonight we will know” Where is this from? I dont see it on here... and i've never heard of that before with any model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Did that rule work when the gfs went from a historic SC storm to a historic NC storm to a historic Lynchburg storm to a historic Norfolk storm to a historic nova storm in 3 days Touche. Would like the know which poster on the other forum said that about the GFS. In other news, the NAM at range looks consolidated with the sw in the SW about to move out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Agreed...Euro does not normally fail within five days. Although the Canadian would be the compromise solution. 12z euro yesterday to 0z to 6z this morning showing quite the difference just for Monday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I’d bet dollar to donuts that the gfs doesn’t use it’s 6hr forecast for its next run. It injests new data prior to every run. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: I’d bet dollar to donuts that the gfs doesn’t use it’s 6hr forecast for its next run. It injests new data prior to every run. I know it used to do that for the 6z and 18z runs. Thats why back in the day, the 6z and 18z runs could burp out some real outlier solutions. But I thought that changed long ago. @high risk? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 So ICON went even more strung out....essentially a nothing burger. UKIE is a nothing burger. And Euro is in that camp? Euro needs to find better friends....it doesn't need that sort of negativity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Until we can see any serious run to run consistency, caution is best here. IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I know it used to do that for the 6z and 18z runs. Thats why back in the day, the 6z and 18z runs could burp out some real outlier solutions. But I thought that changed long ago. @high risk? @dtk would be a good one to ask too, I think. To be honest I'm calling BS preliminarily as well. 30 hours to adjust? Why wouldn't it be 24? Or 12? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I caught Jay’s FB post late last night after the epic GFS run, so I knew there would be a lot to read through this morning. We always need perfect ingredients to get a nice coastal storm around here, which is what the Euro showed on Wed/Thursday and what the GFS has now shown for a couple of runs. I do agree with someone else who says that the Euro often shows a storm in the long-term, loses it in the medium range and then brings it back. I also recall a few winters recently that the Euro has not done great, which some have attributed to the strong Pacific. I’m hoping that the GFS is on to something because we all could use some purples, pinks, and greens around here. So I guess we all just hold our breath until 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Today feels like a "talk ourselves out of it" kinda day 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 In December, GFS led the way, right? I am concerned seeing only the GFS and maybe Canadian giving us a big storm. Anyone extrapolating the NAM yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I'm not a data assimilation scientist although I interact with that community from time to time. So take this fwiw. All of the global centers pretty much ingest the same sfc obs, aircraft obs, satellite obs, and radiosondes. ECMWF has a bit of an advantage because they can use some Chinese and Russian satellites that NOAA is prohibited from using, and I think they have a longer time window for when they allow observations to roll in (this is part of why it comes out later). Where they differ is how they adjust the initial state...they all start from the previous forecast but how much impact observations are allowed to have to change this state, and how observations at one time/location impact the fields at different times/locations depend on the assimilation technique. The radiosondes have the largest impact (https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/forecasts/systems/fp/obs_impact/), so that lends some credence to giving more weight to the 12z/0z runs if they show a big change, but there is plenty of other independent info going into the 6z/18z runs. 9 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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