psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: yeah..there's really no silver lining....this run is a total dumpster fire for the 2nd event. At least the first event looks more promising It's not THAT far off if you look at more then just the verbatim surface results. The track of the h5 feature is perfect...we just need it to be more amplified and suddenly this turns into a nice little snow event with everything else being the same. It's not a huge adjustment needed to see a better outcome from the euro progression. Maybe we dont get the more amplified wave...but there is no HUGE red flag this time that we can't. Its not like some of the recent examples we tried to will a storm up when there was some death vortex over Maine that we knew was never going to allow a wave to amplify or some wave over the lakes to wreck the flow. All we need here is one thing...for the wave to be more amplified as it ejects out west. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I had very low expectations for this euro run, and it didn't come remotely close to meeting them.Horrific run. Even 300 miles off the coast it finally bombed to 994Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: I wish my drawing would be better. The problem with the euro is that the best lift is too far south to benefit the DC area and points north. Ideally, you want the PVA hence the best lift to be over the DC and points north. Move that PVA 50-100 northwest would allow you to see a better precipitation field over DC. The next image will be in the following post since attachment restrictions. It will not allow me to post another attachment. I will have to clear later. So to finish up this post, I was going to show the gfs which clearly shows the PVA being NW of the euro which allows for the best precipitation to be over the DC area and points northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 It's only Friday...I'm going to focus on Storm 1, and let the models sort Storm 2 out over the weekend...I hate randy for coining Dr noSent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 It will not allow me to post another attachment. I will have to clear later. So to finish up this post, I was going to show the gfs which clearly shows the PVA being NW of the euro which allows for the best precipitation to be over the DC area and points northwest. I don't care if the euro was 100 miles north..there wasn't even a storm. Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Wait for it to get sorted out....There isn't a lot of skill 6 days out...But this shortwave ejects in 2-3 days Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 EURO is not locking into a solution 5 days out. For illustrative purposes, look at Monday’s event OZ today compared to last night It is struggling like the other models even at 2 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Wait for it to get sorted out....There isn't a lot of skill 6 days out...Even if it snows a foot it will be melted by the time you go out to shovel but I don't care about that part of itSent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 EURO is not locking into a solution 5 days out. For illustrative purposes, look at Monday’s event OZ today compared to last night It is struggling like the other models even at 2 days out.This is a completely different event. We all expected storm 1 to verify south At some point Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Let’s see how 0Z EPS trends before declaring the run a dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: I wasn't worried about a north shift. .I was worried how a model with such high resolution is just going to create a strong shortwave that amplifies in 60 hours when it's not showing it now. A model that has a bias of overamping nonetheless Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Both the GFS and Euro are almost identical at 60 hours as the system crashes into CA. They both have the wave. But the GFS brings it across the southwest and ejects stronger...the euro de-amplifies it some...but its still healthy enough ejecting from the mountains...but for whatever reason...and I can't see HUGE differences in the flow around it to easily account, yes I can see how the flow to the northeast is compressing it but that is there on the GFS too and I am not sure that should be impacting the wave as early on as the euro starts to weaken it...the euro weakens and shears the wave out as it comes across and the GFS amplifies it. But its not like we need the euro to conjure up a wave...its there, and its healthy enough to begin with...just needs to amplify it coming across instead of weakening it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ji said: This is a completely different event. We all expected storm 1 to verify south At some point Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Then you are much smarter than I because what I have seen in general is a lot of volatility in the models in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: Models suck in La Nina... We haven't even had a typical la nina pattern though. It's been more like a super nino pattern honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 WB 18Z EPS v 0Z GEFS. Let’s see how the OZ compares... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: Yes..many similarities, but the PAC is kind of bootleg....We need a low anomaly off the northwest coast to really force a split flow...Plus our source regions are warm....It's a pretty tenuous pattern...but good enough to time something... I posted earlier that I think our biggest issue is the incredibly warm base state of N America. The longwave pattern is pretty good to get these tantalizing threats but with little true deep cold airmass around...we need so much suppression to keep warmth from surging north of us ahead of any wave...that it makes it difficult to get anything to amplify when we are "cold enough". When the flow relaxes enough to allow a system to amplify we get rain...even from a pretty good track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 45 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: GFS gives us 50x more snow than the euro. I like the optimism, but toss the GFS. I agree GFS run is too good to be true. I just like seeing some (small) progress in the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 WB 0Z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6z gfs holds. Nearly exactly as 00z but not as north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEblizzard88 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 6z gfs holds. Nearly exactly as 00z but not as north so much ice and then a ton of snow. What do you think? Possible? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 so much ice and then a ton of snow. What do you think? Possible?I mean its not like this stuff is being shown 180 hours out.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEblizzard88 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, MDweatherman said: so much ice and then a ton of snow. What do you think? Possible? I mean its not like this stuff is being shown 180 hours out.... Another sleepless week for me but that’s the fun! I love the digital snow too haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I believe when all is said and done, it will be a blend of what the Euro is showing and what the GFS is showing . Not as strong of a low, and a tad more Southward. Basically there won’t be a winter hurricane off the VA coast but a bigger storm than what the Euro is depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 LWX could go straight to a blizzard watch if that look holds for eastern areas. I believe the color is lime green. This place would melt down with joy. I mean they could... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I will do my best WW impression. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB OZ Euro, GFS Can 7am Th If you blend all three were in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I would take this run and call it a winter. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Well that was a fun read, I suspected when I saw all of the pages that something positive happened. It's good to see at least some snow on the models so we have a fighting chance with several days to go vs. sitting here day after day looking for strawberries in a manure pile...I'll take that and ride this out. Hopefully Monday delivers something fun and then this event can make dreams come true hopefully not wet ones though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Well that was a fun read, I suspected when I saw all of the pages that something positive happened. It's good to see at least some snow on the models so we have a fighting chance with several days to go vs. sitting here day after day looking for strawberries in a manure pile. I'll take that and ride this out. Hopefully Monday delivers something fun and then this event can make dreams come true hopefully not wet ones though. White ones better than wet ones? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: White ones better than wet ones? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts