Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Incoming..This has to be good right psu? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Incoming..This has to be good right psu?So nice to see a map without 15 sw flying around Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Incoming..This has to be good right psu? I would think yea... guidance today has trended back towards a healthy wave coming across...that's what I wanted to see. Some of these runs are starting to align with my expectations for this setup. That GFS run might have been overkill but thats the kind of max potential we have if the upper low amplifies enough to our west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I would think yea... guidance today has trended back towards a healthy wave coming across...that's what I wanted to see. Some of these runs are starting to align with my expectations for this setup. That GFS run might have been overkill but thats the kind of max potential we have if the upper low amplifies enough to our west. I still don't get how one model can show a healthy wave and another one show weak ass wave coming across 60 hours out Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: It's probably good at 500 where they score the model but it seems to suck in forecasting actual weather Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk It's hard to get h5 right and mess up the surface over and over. But...they score those things on a larger scale so if the UKMET has an issue with under and over amplifying discreet SWs it might not effect its overall score as much as it effects its ability to get details on a synoptic system correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Incoming..This has to be good right psu? Which model is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Para looks too south for my liking Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Incoming..This has to be good right psu? Just compared and its way more amplified there then the GGEM and about in line with or maybe even slightly more amplified then the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 31 minutes ago, mappy said: This hobby is a roller coaster of emotions. Now do you say that with sarcasm or do you also get rolled coaster emotions with this hobby? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Para looks south of GFS by a decent margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Para looks top south for my liking Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk yea its a fringe job... does get snow up into our area but the heavy is south of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Para keeps the heaviest stuff south but has snow up into the area. Central VA does very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Para is a huge letdown. They should of kept the model in the repair shopSent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The upper low is more amplified but it tracks south...instead of tracking east from that spot at 114 it dives southeast...and that is why the southern solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 yea its a fringe job... does get snow up into our area but the heavy is south of us. It sounds like we may have to start as rain to get what we really want Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3-4” verbatim for DC (north to south). Highest in 2 years. ETA: Richmond over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Para is a huge letdown. They should of kept the model in the repair shop Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk It still gets some snow even north of the Mason Dixon line. Year the 1-2 feet stuff is in central to southeast VA...but even that run isn't where we need a HUGE north shift the last 100 hours. Where were the storms at 100 hours out when we missed south? Think back on all of those...the ones that teased us then went south...they were targeting NC... and we were being silly praying for a N trend of 250 miles. And a lot of those did trend north and affect southern VA but not enough to help us up here...think about our storms that were supposed to jack us 120 hours out...how often they still end up hitting PA instead. I would still rather be just north of the jack zone. Not by a ton...we dont want this to be so far south that we arent even in precip from 100 hours out. We dont want to need a 200 miles shift. But if we only need a slight north adjustment at 100 hours...that isnt bad. You really think this is going to absolutely NAIL the details from this range...and so where would you bet it shifts the final few days...a little north or a little south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I'm halfway expecting the 0z euro to look like the para this run...which would still be progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I cant recall when was the last time we had a double or triple phaser was it juno back in 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 It still gets some snow even north of the Mason Dixon line. Year the 1-2 feet stuff is in central to southeast VA...but even that run isn't where we need a HUGE north shift the last 100 hours. Where were the storms at 100 hours out when we missed south? Think back on all of those...the ones that teased us then went south...they were targeting NC... and we were being silly praying for a N trend of 250 miles. And a lot of those did trend north and affect southern VA but not enough to help us up here...think about our storms that were supposed to jack us 120 hours out...how often they still end up hitting PA instead. I would still rather be just north of the jack zone. Not by a ton...we dont want this to be so far south that we arent even in precip from 100 hours out. We dont want to need a 200 miles shift. But if we only need a slight north adjustment at 100 hours...that isnt bad. You really think this is going to absolutely NAIL the details from this range...and so where would you bet it shifts the final few days...a little north or a little south? I think I'm just jaded by the lack of whatever we need...we get the opposite. North or south shift. But many of our great storms were Richmond bullseye. We don't even have the euro on board yet so this is all fantasy But it's always more fun when the model plasters you. The gfs closed low bowling right through DC was amazing to look at lolSent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I'm halfway expecting the 0z euro to look like the para this run...which would still be progress That would be a huge improvement cause today at 12z was the most deflated I've been since 00z last night Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 @Ji This captures the whole event without any contamination from other waves.... you really want this to trend any further north right now? Op runs will bounce around. Now I do want to see the EPS come north some...be more in line with the rest of guidance...but at this range we will still have some variance to operation runs...but we are a long way out to want it to start trending north already...we when are in the bullseye on the ensembles already and some of the ops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 [mention=514]Ji[/mention] This captures the whole event without any contamination from other waves.... you really want this to trend any further north right now? Op runs will bounce around. Now I do want to see the EPS come north some...be more in line with the rest of guidance...but at this range we will still have some variance to operation runs...but we are a long way out to want it to start trending north already...we when are in the bullseye on the ensembles already and some of the ops. No we can't really afford any more north trends from the op gfs. I mentioned few days ago this has hecs upside but it doesn't look like that can happen if we have too much wiggle roomSent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 12 minutes ago, Ji said: That would be a huge improvement cause today at 12z was the most deflated I've been since 00z last night Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk I hear ya brother...I think even the most stoic among us took that punch this morning, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: No we can't really afford any more north trends from the op gfs. I mentioned few days ago this has hecs upside but it doesn't look like that can happen if we have too much wiggle room Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk agree the flow is very compressed to our northeast...so this will hit a brick wall somewhere...we need a health primary to the west so that the transfer ends up tucked nice and tight off the mid atlantic coast. Unfortunately that has us playing with temp issues. But the colder option has less upside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 A Part me wants this because I want to have confidence that a blocking pattern can deliver the goods. I remember when psu a month ago compared this episode to the March blocking that clobbered new England but January version and its been a huge letdown so farSent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Yeah, too far north past 2 runs. Hopefully it can slide south a bit, even though I have doubts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 This is do or die night. The euro doesn't just spit out a snowstorm usually from 120 hours in so if it's not there tonight...we might be in trouble Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Everybody hold hands... 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: This is do or die night. The euro doesn't just spit out a snowstorm usually from 120 hours in so if it's not there tonight...we might be in trouble Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk I am ok if it trends north from 12z but isn't a huge hit yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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