Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 18z eps improved 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 EPS has a more consolidated SW in the south west though 90 and better heights out front. That ULL in Canada is further south but like you said to early to guess. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 It looks like the ULL in Canada is lifting NE as the run progresses (through 114 so far) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 EPS Mean at 18Z is NW of 12Z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just to add...nice increase in snowfall as well. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Decent.. precip rolling through still. Hope this trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Some pretty deep lows east of ORF on the 18z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 WB low locations 18Z v. 12Z...trend continues it will be going up the mountains by Th.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: WB low locations 18Z v. 12Z...trend continues it will be going up the mountains by Th.... Yeah, maybe one more north trend and then it can stop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 have we ever gone a winter without an arctic air blast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: have we ever gone a winter without an arctic air blast? Yes. Last winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: have we ever gone a winter without an arctic air blast? 2009/10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: It was in May last year remember We just Missed a WWA event May 9th by slight track change . Got SS all day 2019-20 winter (DJF) at DCA had 26 days with a negative daily temperature departure, two of those -10. But there were 65 above normal days including 26 with at least a +10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ji said: have we ever gone a winter without an arctic air blast? 2011-12 was notably warm wall-to-wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 20 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Yeah, maybe one more north trend and then it can stop. This one seems quite a bit colder than what we have been dealing with so far this winter. Get the low over ORF and we all get hit hard. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 24 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB low locations 18Z v. 12Z...trend continues it will be going up the mountains by Th.... Nice cluster of stronger lows just S of Nags Head North to VA Beach latitude on the 18z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 For my selfish sakes it can stay right where it is. Don’t need it anymore north 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 42 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: For my selfish sakes it can stay right where it is. Don’t need it anymore north Ya got that right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Icon is an EZF and south hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Icon is an EZF and south hit. Higher heights ahead of the storm but I guess it didnt do much. Still gets some precip into DC, and yeah it's a great hit for points south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: Higher heights ahead of the storm but I guess it didnt do much. Still gets some precip into DC, and yeah it's a great hit for points south Fringed! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Higher heights ahead of the storm but I guess it didnt do much. Still gets some precip into DC, and yeah it's a great hit for points south That ULL is just a little too close in Canada and causes it to dive SE. GFS has that feature further north. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Fringed! just where we want it 144 hours out... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: That ULL is just a little too close in Canada and causes it to dive SE. GFS has that feature further north. I’m not sure how much that lobe effects things. It’s kind of cutoff from the flow. It’s more the 50/50 in my eyes. I mean we saw the cmc earlier which had that ULL sitting even farther S and it was better. Idk though 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Fringed! Ugh not this again Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: just where we want it 144 hours out... Surface low is actually farther W and maybe a mile N of the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 lol go from almost 6 inchs down to almost zero lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Before I say this let me preface that I am still optimistic for this storm. I think we are in a pretty good spot. I think this will work out. But I wanted to highlight the double bind we are in right now and why we keep failing despite what has been one of the better longwave patterns we have had in many years all winter long. Look at this from the 18z EPS. Now...that was a pretty good run...but we still need a north adjustment. The target was still just a little south of DC on that run. There were some nice hits but too many misses still. So we need a little more ridging or relaxing of the suppressive flow over the northeast to get the storm to trend north some...but look at where the "cold" boundary is as the storm approaches there! How much can we even afford to "give"? And yes the temps crash after once the storm secondary's and bombs to our southeast...but because of the suppressive flow to our north we need to get the primary up into southern Ohio or WV before it transfers to get heavy snow here. But what if that ridging does shift north say 50/100 miles? How much further before that primary maybe holds on into western PA and the transfer ends up to off NJ instead of off VA Beach and we get a miller b jump over us solution? And about 9 members of the 18z GEFS had just that. We're walking a razor edge on EVERY possible snow solution right now because of "THIS" double bind. Right there...on that run...we have barely enough suppression to prevent warmth from surging north of us ahead of the wave...but its slightly too much suppression for a storm to amplify enough to "crush" us. We have absolutely no margin of error because the cold is so freaking pathetic that to resist warmth from surging north of us ahead of any wave we need such a suppressive flow that it prevents any storms from amplifying. If the suppression relaxes we can get a storm but its rain. I debated not posting this... but I think we can keep this from becoming an out of control debate about "you know what". I am not going to even say its all "THAT". There are some factors that maybe aren't permanent. The PV got sent to the other side of the globe, the pac torched north america all fall and early winter and so perhaps the base state is even warmer now then just due to AGW. But regardless of all that...this is the bind we are in right now trying to get snow regardless of the pattern. The same exact equation is playing out Monday also. That storm is suppressed so much it becomes a strung out mess that barely gets heavy precip to the mason dixon line...and NYC is on the northern fringes. Yet DC can't get any snow??? If the storm was suppressed much more there would be no heavy precip anyways...this keeps playing out time and again all winter long. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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