Weather Will Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 WB 6Z GFS has big hits for our late week storm. Definitely an uptick! 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Will comes in clutch. We’re back baby! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Will comes in clutch. We’re back baby! We need % maps and snowfall means on the eps. Wouldn't mind seeing the updated 46-day totals too. These are generally accurate. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Will comes in clutch. We’re back baby! Hope we can score on Thursday. Monday's on life support. Would be quite the gut punch to miss to the north on Monday then south on Thursday. Guess that's how we roll around here though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 14 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Hope we can score on Thursday. Monday's on life support. Would be quite the gut punch to miss to the north on Monday then south on Thursday. Guess that's how we roll around here though lol. The 0z GFS op would be historic for parts of NC and that is why I believe the outcome will not verify. Eric Web mentioned it has been over 40 years since Fayetteville has seen a storm deliver 8 inches of more of snow. Been 65 years for a 12 inch event there. No one should write off the event near the 29 th yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 the ensembles look really good but when will that show the OP. the ensembles would make me pretty nervous if i lived in NC. not many good hits. this may be our last chance this winter folks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 hours ago, IronTy said: New way to fail. Now it's the DC snow parallelogram. We've reached geometric failure. Looks like Justin Tuckers two kicks from last Saturday's game. Left post, right post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 The off hour EPS runs are still barely out of range (I completely forgot the storm is still 6 days out until seeing this), but it seems like the EPS is insistent on a good slug of moisture. Here's the last panel of the run 6z GEFS looks pretty similar at this time too, and that certainly didn't have a North Carolina jackpot look on it's means 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 This one is going south. 1045 banana high strengthening with each op run. The ensembles look ok but still mostly signal northern va/md as the top of the precip shield. The trend this winter has also been, imo, for waves to trend a little weaker than modeled in 5-7 day time frame. This one will unfortunately probably do the same and with little amplification and a strong wrap around high to our north... this ain’t the one 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: This one is going south. 1045 banana high strengthening with each op run. The ensembles look ok but still mostly signal northern va/md as the top of the precip shield. The trend this winter has also been, imo, for waves to trend a little weaker than modeled in 5-7 day time frame. This one will unfortunately probably do the same and with little amplification and a strong wrap around high to our north... this ain’t the one Wow that’s a pretty bold call 6-7 days out. You could be right, but I’m going to withhold my judgement for a few more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, chris21 said: Wow that’s a pretty bold call 6-7 days out. You could be right, but I’m going to withhold my judgement for a few more days. I mean you should probably check his post history. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 49 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: This one is going south. 1045 banana high strengthening with each op run. The ensembles look ok but still mostly signal northern va/md as the top of the precip shield. The trend this winter has also been, imo, for waves to trend a little weaker than modeled in 5-7 day time frame. This one will unfortunately probably do the same and with little amplification and a strong wrap around high to our north... this ain’t the one weren't you complaining there was no high like that for the last storm...and now this one that is the reason it wont hit. Guess you are consistent with your character at least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 The real issue with this...is we need the upper low and associated surface system in the TN and OH valleys to be stronger. This is not an amplifying up the coast coastal setup. These can be nice storms...but the mechanism is a strong upper low and surface system to our west into the Ohio valley pressing WAA against the compressed confluent flow over the northeast. That ends up creating a really strong inverted trough to focus moisture transport and lift along as the secondary forms off the coast. But that secondary will not gain much latitude. If the system in the midwest is weak and not amplified enough to create that strong inverted trough feature this is a non event. The coastal itself will not affect us. This is 100% about the strength of the upper level wave that ejects out west. Stronger and further north...we have a storm. The trend the last 24 hours was suddenly weaker on average across all guidance after it had been a very healthy wave...even on the GEFS in prior days. All I want to see today is trend back towards an amplified closed upper level low coming across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 15 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Don’t worry it will adjust north. Still feel this way??? been Adjusting South so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Not smart enough to analyze this but just figured I'd provide this here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Not smart enough to analyze this but just figured I'd provide this here Better PNA ridging and better ridging out ahead of a better looking sw rolling out of the Rockies and in the Plains. Caveat, I'm not very smart either. If I was I would have given up this hobby years ago. Or maybe that's just a lack of common sense? Maybe both. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Better PNA ridging and better ridging out ahead of a better looking sw rolling out of the Rockies and in the Plains. Caveat, I'm not very smart either. If I was I would have given up this hobby years ago. Or maybe that's just a lack of common sense? Maybe both. Seems like that would be a good positive then, since that's also related to the Tennessee valley piece that PSU was talking about, yeah? I'm not sure, but your analysis seems to make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Not smart enough to analyze this but just figured I'd provide this here Based on the 6z EPS trend Griteater posted, it looks like the NAO block up north is trending a little further north each time. This combine with better PNA ridging should allow the confluence to trend more relaxed, and further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Not smart enough to analyze this but just figured I'd provide this here HM is making positive comments to two North Carolina mets….you draw your own conclusion from that 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I don't think we should worry too much about suppression, unless this was a month ago. We have shorter wavelengths in late Jan vs December. Anthony said the flow supports a southward bias but I disagree. Edit: I think he is talking about current model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 37 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: Still feel this way??? been Adjusting South so far. Because the upper level energy trended weaker coming across out west. One of two things will happen...if that upper level energy is too weak to amplify the system into the TN/OH valleys...this will be a weak southern wave with some rain/snow in NC and SC. If the upper levels are strong enough to produce an amplifying primary and upper low into the OH valley to create the strong boundary/trough pressing against the confluence to the northeast...this will end up a storm like last nights GGEM or the Euro from the other day and come north. The in between solution with a big snowstorm for central VA is actually the least likely outcome imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: weren't you complaining there was no high like that for the last storm...and now this one that is the reason it wont hit. Guess you are consistent with your character at least. Not sure what you problem is, however, having a high or not having a isn't a binary choice -- as you know. Its not that I prefer to have a high or know high. I just think the location and strengthing in its intensity and placement hurts the amplification. Sorry, I'm not wish casting -- I know that's what gets rewarded in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 26 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: HM is making positive comments to two North Carolina mets….you draw your own conclusion from that He said in other comments for our area we need the western system to eject at a higher latitude...I would argue stronger is the more important factor but both matter... a weaker wave is more easily squashed south in the flow...can't pump the ridging in front so its a symbiotic relationship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Icon starting off the 12z suite nicely.. had the first feature farther northwest which seems to have helped a fair bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: He said in other comments for our area we need the western system to eject at a higher latitude...I would argue stronger is the more important factor but both matter... a weaker wave is more easily squashed south in the flow...can't pump the ridging in front so its a symbiotic relationship. sounds complicated... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, PivotPoint said: Not sure what you problem is, however, having a high or not having a isn't a binary choice -- as you know. Its not that I prefer to have a high or know high. I just think the location and strengthing in its intensity and placement hurts the amplification. Sorry, I'm not wish casting -- I know that's what gets rewarded in here. We have had plenty of snowstorms from a banana high! The issue here is where the upper feature ejects out west It will generally move west to east in this pattern...so if it ejects too far south...ugh, and how strong...it needs to be amplified enough to pump ridging in front. The runs that had a really good snowstorm for our area had a very similar high pressure representation up top. That wasn't the difference in the sudden weaker/souther trend. You do this with every long range threat. And most of the time you are right because we live somewhere with a horrible snow climo and 99% of anything we identify at range will fail. So 99% of the time you look really smart. But you also have done this with storms that ended up hitting. No one is saying this is going to hit for sure. But the high pressure is the least of our issues right now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Icon starting off the 12z suite nicely.. had the first feature farther northwest which seems to have helped a fair bit. 0z for comparison. Nice bump in the right direction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Man, the ICON pummels parts of the sub, DC in particular....and yet eerie silence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Well if the ICON says it will snow then it must be so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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