SnowDreamer Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 That one hurt. I may need to take a break for the 00Z runs tonight. I don't know if I can handle the next 7 days straight of this pain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: Dare I say this looks similar to 2016 around D7? I know about suppression but of all the models the GFS showing this concerns me the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Typical response when in the bullseye on D7: Wow, too bad we know it won't hold for 7 days. Typical response when not in the bullseye on D7: Wow, you know that's exactly how it'll play out. 5 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Interesting to see the model consistency this far out....just over 6 days away now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: Typical response when in the bullseye on D7: Wow, too bad we know it won't hold for 7 days. Typical response when not in the bullseye on D7: Wow, you know that's exactly how it'll play out. The blatant pessimism helps me not be so surprised when we get fringed, blowtorched, and suppressed all at the same time. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Damn Lynchburg is the new South Carolina 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 21 minutes ago, nj2va said: Typical response when in the bullseye on D7: Wow, too bad we know it won't hold for 7 days. Typical response when not in the bullseye on D7: Wow, you know that's exactly how it'll play out. Yeah I don't get it...Somehow the snow weenie brain of some translates a slightly unfavorable D7 model run into reality and and favorable one into fantasy...where in reality neither is true because, well....the reality, whichever it is, hasn't happened yet!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 29 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Reminds me of something... 1996? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 LOl. That is, actually, literally where we want this seven days out. We are good and very much in the game. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 I never thought I’d have to storm chase to friggin Dave Tolerris’a house this year. Gotta do what ya gotta do sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 On a serious note with the 50/50 location and the ridge being in an iffy spot want this shortwave to have as much latitude as possible as it tracks east. This way even if it bombs on the coast and heads east quickly it would be able to throw back moisture. What’s also allowed this to come nw a bit is that tpv in Canada shifting NW. The euro and gfs did this today, but cmc kept it too Far East. This one has good potential though. Well see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 after the storm on D7, we get a cutter but it brings in arctic cold down from above. Cross polar flow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: LOl. That is, actually, literally where we want this seven days out. We are good and very much in the game. Yea honestly I’m more worried about the north trend continuing than it missing us South. Time will tell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 I agree. Exactly where we want it. Just need 2 ticks north. Ezpz 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: LOl. That is, actually, literally where we want this seven days out. We are good and very much in the game. right... EVERY single time these tick north each day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 First one north, second south. I’m........_______ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: right... EVERY single time these tick north each day! The problem is they keep ticking north...and keep ticking north and keep ticking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Gefs with stronger hp for day 7 and stronger ssw . 2 for 2 .let's do it. Pretty strong signal for a 1040+ HP stationed in the right spot. You want it to be a little west of our longitude so the cold air comes directly from the north instead of the NE. The GEFS though is about 100 miles or so south of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 57 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: wow to the GFS. Historical storm for central/eastern Va verbatim Don’t worry it will adjust north. 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 I guess a step back from 12z, but still a good signal 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Don’t worry it will adjust north. I was actually thinking about your rule about where we want a storm for it to adjust north last minute. Seems like even the suppressed GFS is in a decent spot for us. Shades of those few Euro runs for Jan 2016 where it completely jackpotted Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Don’t worry it will adjust north. Better not! You knew I’d reply to this. It better dang not. (for good measure) It’s like a game... I don’t want to be left out, but I don’t want anyone else left out either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Rhino16 said: Better not! You knew I’d reply to this. It better dang not. (for good measure) It’s like a game... I don’t want to be left out, but I don’t want anyone else left out either. I’d like Ji left out just because his melt down would be legendary! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 20 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I’d like Ji left out just because his melt down would be legendary! I might be farther south than Ji... not sure. But isn’t Ji always a meltdown? I mean that in the nicest way possible. There’s always the daily moment of optimism though, which is welcome. Definitely a great character though, every weather forum needs a Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 nogaps has transfer from oh valley to VC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 25 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: I might be farther south than Ji... not sure. But isn’t Ji always a meltdown? I mean that in the nicest way possible. There’s always the daily moment of optimism though, which is welcome. Definitely a great character though, every weather forum needs a Ji Ji is the best. Known him virtually for 20 years. Classic weather smart weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 28 minutes ago, Ji said: nogaps has transfer from oh valley to VC coast Get that high down closer to Maine and that would be a crushing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said: I never thought I’d have to storm chase to friggin Dave Tolerris’a house this year. Gotta do what ya gotta do sometimes You wont have to this time either. Guaranteed. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 hours ago, Deer Whisperer said: @mattie g Jack over my house. Like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 We're still 12-24hours out until the 6z and 18z EPS will go out far enough to cover the 28th storm but.. 18z EPS has the juiciest look yet. Decent consensus on a slug of moisture 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 hours ago, H2O said: First one north, second south. I’m........_______ Getting rain 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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