WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 Welcome to the party GFS 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, frd said: 4 High pressure systems and rain to my door step. can't believe this crap It's BS. Ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I'd take that track and roll the dice that we see all frozen out of the D7 system. Trusting the GFS and its ensembles means that you are certain is has Canada all figured out...... NOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 I guess we can start talking about the 28th-29th event in here now right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Deer Whisperer said: I guess we can start talking about the 28th-29th event in here now right? Yes. D7 threat. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Maybe we can just make separate threads for each event? Going to get confusing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Yeah. I think it’s time for storm specific threads 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Jan 25 disco here: Now use this thread is for the second system 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 CMC has the d7 threat. Light on blue precip but it has the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: CMC has the d7 threat. Light on blue precip but it has the storm. There's a thread for that one now too. This thread for anything beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Whoops. Sorry. Randy confused me. 28th threat still in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, North Balti Zen said: Whoops. Sorry. Randy confused me. 28th threat still in here? Yes, 28th here. 25th in the thread Randy made (he goofed on the title) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Is this the thread where we talk about toys? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Is this the thread where we talk about toys? No. Thats the tropical thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 The Para is still stuck on 6z at 102. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, mattie g said: The Para is still stuck on 6z at 102. Unfortunately it's para-lyzed 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 GEFS has continuously been getting juicier for the 28th threat. I'd imagine some good hits fit into that mean. One thing of note was the higher heights leading into the storm compared to 6z. This 6z's wettest panel FWIW 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 hour ago, ryanconway63 said: GFS is such a joke......Low off SC with mixing issues in Virginia.....smh 1 hour ago, JakkelWx said: The r/s line on the GFS should not be that far north, at h168. Inverted trough which draws moisture NW but also warmth. It’s likely at that range wrong and the low should just be adjusted NW instead of having that string out low along the trough. With a better closed low but further up the trough we get the moisture but without the warmth surging among the inverted trough unimpeded. Way too far out for those kinds of meso details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Inverted trough which draws moisture NW but also warmth. It’s likely at that range wrong and the low should just be adjusted NW instead of having that string out low along the trough. With a better closed low but further up the trough we get the moisture but without the warmth surging among the inverted trough unimpeded. Way too far out for those kinds of meso details. Gfs also shifted that Tpv westward in Canada. Ukie Looked decent at 144 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 hour ago, mattie g said: The Para is still stuck on 6z at 102. figures...right before it was to pound us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 @psuhoffman how madening is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: @psuhoffman how madening is this? Ha, just last night I thought to myself "welp, that low will be into TN on tomorrow's model runs." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: how madening is this? I be more comfortable with a Key West snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, frd said: I be more comfortable with a Key West snowstorm i mean how can you have a high in the right place...low in the right place...prime climo and it shows greeen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Ji said: @psuhoffman how madening is this? I think we have AMPLE evidence that we’re losing snowstorms on the margins. We keep seeing crap like that in model runs. Some verify some don’t, but we’ve had multiple rain events over the last 5 years that weren’t perfect but I thought “that should have at least been some snow”. Doesn’t mean we can’t snow anymore. Just means it’s harder. Maybe the high has to be 1035 instead of 1032 on some similar setup. Or a marginal pac airmass that barely worked for a 32 degree wet snow paste bomb 30 years ago is a 36 degree rain event now. And yes it’s frustrating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Euro caving to GFS again for later next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Euro looked pretty good Verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Euro ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Euro ftw its more ftt---it could be so much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro caving to GFS again for later next week Almost like we've seen that map before 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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