jaydreb Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 On 1/20/2021 at 4:03 PM, stormtracker said: Yeah, a little more interaction with the nrn s/w than 6z so far. Expand Warmer too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 On 1/20/2021 at 4:04 PM, stormtracker said: Yes, but too much heights and we get it's ugly solution at 0z Expand That's what I'm afraid of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 GFS looks like it is going to drop a deuce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Gfs looks all NS dominant and wants no part of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I start reading this thread 8 pages back and am ready to go buy Blue Label and rush on the grocery stores but then I got to the last 2 pages... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 No one sees a flake on the GFS. And I mean no one at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 GFS digs the NS too much. We need it flatter and more progressive so it gets out of the way and allows the HP to build in before the SS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Snow block continues to impress! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Well...it will be interesting to see what the GEFS ensembles say, and whether the Euro/Canadian hold on with their idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Yup suppressed...which isn't what I was expecting. Guess it's better than norther warmer rainer. Let's see if the GFS it's back to being on it's own or is it sniffing something out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1008 low ain’t gonna punch. The high is Tyson and the low is Glass Joe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 On 1/20/2021 at 3:42 PM, JakkelWx said: Close hit on the German model. Scheisse! Expand Sometimes, it's a fine line between Schnee and Scheisse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 On 1/20/2021 at 4:06 PM, LP08 said: Gfs looks all NS dominant and wants no part of next week. Expand GFS is a joke. Flopping every which way every run. Even the GEFS ar 6z were going toward the euro. I bet the 12z GEFS won't support the op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 On 1/20/2021 at 4:06 PM, JakkelWx said: GFS looks like it is going to drop a deuce. Expand Well it hardly drops any precip soooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 On 1/20/2021 at 3:59 PM, Ajb said: Thanx for the response. Maybe this belongs somewhere else, but I’m curious the extent to which the next op follows the control. I guess this goes to the implicit probability distribution over the ensemble numbers (with some large unknown weight on “other” I suppose). Assuming the initial conditions update between runs, is there a physics/ingestion reason for the updated initial conditions to be closer to the control than any other perturbed member? Expand I meant the op and control are usually pretty similar each run. There was no op past 90 hours at 6z so the control was our best hint at what it might have shown. That's all. Not worth as much attention as it got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 On 1/20/2021 at 4:10 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS is a joke. Flopping every which way every run. Even the GEFS ar 6z were going toward the euro. I bet the 12z GEFS won't support the op. Expand Yes, I'll be interested to see if the ensembles continue their trend from the 06Z GEFS...or if they "flip back" to more supporting the ops GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 next 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Amazing how many people fall for this time, after time, after time. As P.T. Barnum once said, “There’s a sucker born every minute”. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 On 1/20/2021 at 4:08 PM, Yeoman said: Snow block continues to impress! Expand unlike your posts 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 On 1/20/2021 at 4:14 PM, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: Amazing how many people fall for this time, after time, after time. As P.T. Barnum once said, “There’s a sucker born every minute”. Expand Or in this case, every six hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 On 1/20/2021 at 4:14 PM, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: Amazing how many people fall for this time, after time, after time. As P.T. Barnum once said, “There’s a sucker born every minute”. Expand It's the GFS dude. Relax for a minute and let's see what the other 12z models have to say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 CMC is not digging the NS as much as the GFS or it's 00z run at 72hrs. Probably good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 So far CMC not biting on the GFS' line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 On 1/20/2021 at 4:23 PM, Amped said: CMC is not digging the NS as much as the GFS or it's 00z run at 72hrs. Probably good news. Expand On 1/20/2021 at 4:26 PM, stormtracker said: So far CMC not biting on the GFS' line. Expand No not at all...still early and I hate to project...sometimes some factor we weren't even considering before pops up and causes a totally different tangent...but the CMC is not biting on the NS/TPV phase idea. If anything the southern wave looks more amplified and would risk going north not south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 UGH rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Temps are ugly with that track on the CMC...Pa is the place to be 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 DT posted this snowfall map late last night for the storm early next week. Seems like he is thinking the heaviest stuff might be in SW Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Yeah, CMC is warmer. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 On 1/20/2021 at 4:28 PM, psuhoffman said: No not at all...still early and I hate to project...sometimes some factor we weren't even considering before pops up and causes a totally different tangent...but the CMC is not biting on the NS/TPV phase idea. If anything the southern wave looks more amplified and would risk going north not south. Expand Good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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