psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs below. Eps has no low pressure over the lakes where Gefs does You mean it didn’t...I’m sure it will in 2 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 18z GFS op is 20F warmer in the long range than the ECM what up with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 What is this BS!!!!! Closed upper low tracking south of us in prime climo and rain to upstate NY!!!! Oh no, when PSU loses it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 unfortunately, the americans right now are a heavy favorite to beat the europeans 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 WB 18Z GEFS thru Day 7 is a disaster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Have any gfs runs been good for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 16 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS thru Day 7 is a disaster... Good. Now stop posting this crap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 EPS has been pretty steady so far. GEFS and GFS bouncing all over the damn place. Yeah, still 6-7 days away, but I know which of the 2 I'd put more weight on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: EPS has been pretty steady so far. GEFS and GFS bouncing all over the damn place. Yeah, still 6-7 days away, but I know which of the 2 I'd put more weight on. But what do the EPS probability maps show? That’s all I care about... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, nj2va said: But what do the EPS probability maps show? That’s all I care about... not good.... 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: EPS has been pretty steady so far. GEFS and GFS bouncing all over the damn place. Yeah, still 6-7 days away, but I know which of the 2 I'd put more weight on. I just posted in the other thread about this...I still favor the euro for the reasons you said plus the cmc/geps is the tie breaker...but at the same time I won’t lie it bugs me to see all the southern stream waves next week suddenly get squashed at about the same range that’s been happening to every one of them since the NAO went strongly negative almost 3 weeks ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: not good.... Sheet what we even doing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Sheet what we even doing here. Watching you have a mini meltdown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I just posted in the other thread about this...I still favor the euro for the reasons you said plus the cmc/geps is the tie breaker...but at the same time I won’t lie it bugs me to see all the southern stream waves next week suddenly get squashed at about the same range that’s been happening to every one of them since the NAO went strongly negative almost 3 weeks ago. I'm confused. Which wave are you speaking of? GFS just took the lead wave far north? But I agree in general, suppression is a greater threat than cutters next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Watching you have a mini meltdown I lasted a LOT longer then Ji!!!! 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I'm confused. Which wave are you speaking of? GFS just took the lead wave far north? But I agree in general, suppression is a greater threat than cutters next week. That’s a NS wave though. I’m talking about the 3 southern stream waves back around the 9th/12th/14th and then the ones around the 18th/22nd. Every single southern stream dominant wave has been squashed since around New Years. NS waves are different Imo. Some of those have amplified but that’s not going to do us much good because without any real arctic cold around it’s highly doubtful a NS dominant wave can track under us. We need a southern stream wave to amplify and come at us from the south. They have all been shredded since the block set in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I lasted a LOT longer then Ji!!!! That's what she said, too. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 Key Difference between the month to date and what’s coming next week is the PNA. The positive PNA we’ve had was working to shift things south of us, but in combination with the NAO it was a shredfest. Hopefully with the upcoming -PNA, we get some offsetting factors to keep the storm track nearby. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Key Difference between the month to date and what’s coming next week is the PNA. The positive PNA we’ve had was working to shift things south of us, but in combination with the NAO it was a shredfest. Hopefully with the upcoming -PNA, we get some offsetting factors to keep the storm track nearby. True...that’s why we identified this as a good threat window. It still is. I really do think the gfs just had one of its many whacky runs. Just saying I’ll still feel better when we clear that threshold soon where we know it won’t be squashed and it’s just about nailing down details. Logical or not. The last couple years have been hard not to start looking over my shoulder for what’s going to go wrong next. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 I said a couple days ago that tonight’s 0z runs were a key threshold for me. That puts us about 150hrs out. Still aways to go, but nothing else really got to that point this month and still looked like a legit chance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I hope the 0Z runs improve but EPS has not gone above 30% for next week since 0Z. It does not strongly support its deterministic model. There has been one good EURO and Canadian determinative runs and one good EPS control run. No GFS or GEFS support. We have seen several head fakes from the EURO this year...but hope springs eternal... I guess we will know if the GFS or EURO/Canadian are wrong soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 You know, it could end up correct, but I won’t lose a minute of time worrying about the gfs. Look at its last 4 runs at h5. It literally throws out every possible scenario. Hard to put faith in that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I hope the 0Z runs improve but EPS has not gone above 30% for next week since 0Z. It does not strongly support its deterministic model. There has been one good EURO and Canadian determinative runs and one good EPS control run. No GFS or GEFS support. We have seen several head fakes from the EURO this year...but hope springs eternal... I guess we will know if the GFS or EURO/Canadian are wrong soon enough. Just stick with the the maps. The commentary doesn’t help either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You know, it could end up correct, but I won’t lose a minute of time worrying about the gfs. Look at its last 4 runs at h5. It literally throws out every possible scenario. Hard to put faith in that. Agreed that the GFS is all over the place, but it has been pretty consistent showing freezing rain for Monday. My point is that without strong EPS support the EURO should not be taken as a given. I have fallen for it too many times the last few years. Let’s see if the EURO and Canadian show the same result for a few runs in a row first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Agreed that the GFS is all over the place, but it has been pretty consistent showing freezing rain for Monday. My point is that without strong EPS support the EURO should not be taken as a given. I have fallen for it too many times the last few years. Let’s see if the EURO and Canadian show the same result for a few runs in a row first. This is not the Euro on an island. The Canadian has spit out nearly identical solutions four runs in a row, the ICON is way more in line with the euro. The NAVGEM. The JMA. It’s the gfs that is in an island. If the euro was riding solo, I would agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Ok, just maps. No comments. Last 4 runs of Canadian: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: Ok, just maps. No comments. Last 4 runs of Canadian: Right there is your problem. You only look at snow maps. Post the precip maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 20 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I'll take another piece of guidance in my corner even the JV models. Navgem has no ns lakes low . Looks like a hit incoming It’s there just super weak and sheared out like other guidance. But your point is 100% wrt to practical impacts on our ground prospects for snow just saying technically that wave is on all guidance. It’s simply the details of how amplified it is at question here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Right there is your problem. You only look at snow maps. Post the precip maps Can. Last four maps total precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Last 5 Canadian runs. Some timing differences but within 6-12 hours. I triple dog dare you to post the last 5 gfs runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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