Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 2:24 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Well the NAM made a slight adjustment of its low position LOL Expand Nice clipper in the Midwest at the end of the NAM. I would be thrilled with a 1-3"/2-4" cold smoke clipper system 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 2:59 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Nice clipper in the Midwest at the end of the NAM. I would be thrilled with a 1-3"/2-4" cold smoke clipper system Expand NAMs both made quite a change to the Friday-Sat deal. Wondering if further changes may be in store. The block seems to really be doing a number on that low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Really nice vort pass on the 19th but no surface reflection. If we’re looking for some dark horse long shot to pop up short range that could be the one. Wouldn’t take much surface reflection to at least create a minor event out of that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Hey what's the Buffalo precip looking like for Saturday evening? Given it's relevance to many in this forum...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 This clipper behind the departing storm (moving into the 50/50) is not surprisingly starting to dig more in response to the PNA ridge flexing more. Take it for what it is worth at range, but the NAM likes the chances for this one and shows potential. Verbatim these maps are honking tbh. But again, NAM at range. As I have been saying LR tracking will likely fail us this year whereas threats are more likely to pop in the short/medium range due to the chaotic fast NS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 6z GFS has a similar evolution with the departing low taking 50-50 spot forcing the clipper south but its so dry. Who knows. Nothing really at surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 10:04 AM, BristowWx said: 6z GFS has a similar evolution with the departing low taking 50-50 spot forcing the clipper south but its so dry. Who knows. Nothing really at surface. Expand I'm hugging the EURO for late next week and hoping the blocking does its thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 It’s a wait and see game right now. Models still varying on timing of northern and southern stream. How much energy gets buried in southwest. When/how far S does NS get. All will play a factor. Like the pattern but feel like bad timing could also screw things up a bit. Hopefully not. I thought my 76ers were getting James Harden yesterday and look what happened! Lol...can your wizards trade us Bradley Beal instead please thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 12:36 PM, losetoa6 said: I agree. Looking at h5 I'd think at least a light event . Here's the latest Gefs . Looks like none of the members dig quite enough south to pull any kind of moisture from the south and the ull energy by itself isn't sparking much if any surface reflection. Maby it'll moisten up as we near .If we had some more spacing from the departing low maybe that would energize things better as well and allow more amplification . This is Probably more of a factor then west ridging I'd think. Expand Yeah, this situation is not ideal. Clipper trajectory is great BUT normally clippers have a departing PV with antecedent arctic air in place to squeeze out every drop of precip from the atmosphere. We don't have that luxury this time which is likely part of what is causing the low surface precip reflection. Maybe we can at least manage a stripe of coating type stuff somewhere but who knows. Eta: yet another example of how a pattern can look great but lack of cold air is killing us. Clipper patterns should produce in mid-late Jan even in the lamest winters. This is rock bottom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I still think Saturday (outside the mountains) could surprise some with snow TV. It's something at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 3:19 PM, nj2va said: I still think Saturday (outside the mountains) could surprise some with snow TV. It's something at least. Expand Few mood flakes on WB 12Z GFS make it east of the mountains overnight Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 3:19 PM, nj2va said: I still think Saturday (outside the mountains) could surprise some with snow TV. It's something at least. Expand Thoughts on the mountain upslope being shown? Maybe 6-12" by mid week? I'm heading out tomorrow for a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 7:48 PM, mdhokie said: Thoughts on the mountain upslope being shown? Maybe 6-12" by mid week? I'm heading out tomorrow for a week Expand You’re missing the party in the Obs thread. Snowing here now. Yeah 6-12” seems like a good call...I’d think we’re on the higher end of that come Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 ICON throws some light some light snow on Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 This thread might be busy soon. If it is then party time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 8:43 PM, H2O said: This thread might be busy soon. If it is then party time Expand Excellent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 8:52 PM, psuhoffman said: Excellent Expand we have been 7 days out for 17 straight days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 11:15 PM, Ji said: we have been 7 days out for 17 straight days Expand You missed the reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 8:52 PM, psuhoffman said: Excellent Expand Chya! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 8:43 PM, H2O said: This thread might be busy soon. If it is then party time Expand Party on dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 On 1/19/2021 at 12:28 AM, stormtracker said: Party on dude Expand You’ll be at the party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 On 1/19/2021 at 12:28 AM, stormtracker said: Party on dude Expand You still got the bus??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 If next week is going to be “it” my guess is sometime in the next 48 hours we see a run where the majority of guidance converges on that look. Will it be tonight??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 On 1/19/2021 at 2:08 AM, psuhoffman said: If next week is going to be “it” my guess is sometime in the next 48 hours we see a run where the majority of guidance converges on that look. Will it be tonight??? Expand Wednesday 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 On 1/19/2021 at 2:04 AM, psuhoffman said: You still got the bus??? Expand Its still being repaired. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 On 1/19/2021 at 2:36 AM, Avdave said: Its still being repaired. Expand You came back just to troll me. MFer. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 On 1/19/2021 at 1:20 AM, H2O said: You’ll be at the party Expand Wish I had some premium scotch to bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 On 1/19/2021 at 2:04 AM, psuhoffman said: You still got the bus??? Expand Yeah, but it's in the garage on bricks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 On 1/19/2021 at 2:44 AM, stormtracker said: You came back just to troll me. MFer. Expand Love you brother and miss the hell out of you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 Use this thread for discussing the 25-26th storm threat starting now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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