CAPE Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 12:19 AM, losetoa6 said: It's been 35-43 here as highs for 5 weeks almost strait lol . Sunday only hit 31 with the southern slider . Expand Yeah I think it was 34 here. Not sure what that has to do with the next few days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 12:35 AM, CAPE said: Yeah I think it was 34 here. Not sure what that has to do with the next few days though. Expand It’s the worst January cold front. It was colder last night than it will be after the front passes here. We have a bit longer to wait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 12:19 AM, losetoa6 said: It's been 35-43 here as highs for 5 weeks almost strait lol . Sunday only hit 31 with the southern slider . Expand Looks like you will break that streak as you touch 50. Better for outside work. If it’s not going to snow might as well be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 12:38 AM, BristowWx said: It’s the worst January cold front. It was colder last night than it will be after the front passes here. We have a bit longer to wait. Expand Yeah its garbage, but we have known that for awhile. The guidance incrementally backed off on the cold from several days ago, as it is prone to do. Hopefully this doesn't happen with the advertised upcoming cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 12:38 AM, BristowWx said: It’s the worst January cold front. It was colder last night than it will be after the front passes here. We have a bit longer to wait. Expand It was 22 this morning with heavy frost and ground fog. It will be 30 on Sat night, and maybe 28 Sunday night. More mixing though, so a different situation. Still, not much of a cold front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 12:44 AM, CAPE said: Yeah it was 22 this morning with heavy frost and ground fog. It will be 30 on Sat night, and maybe 28 Sunday night. More mixing though, so a different situation. Still, not much of a cold front. Expand We have to keep waiting for our 2 weeks of winter. It will probably come and we’ll get some snow along climo lines. Then the block will break down. Come back a bit late Feb early March. Couple of late freezes and boom it’s spring. Sounds cynical but probably close to reality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 12:48 AM, BristowWx said: We have to keep waiting for our 2 weeks of winter. It will probably come and we’ll get some snow along climo lines. Then the block will break down. Come back a bit late Feb early March. Couple of late freezes and boom it’s spring. Sounds cynical but probably close to reality. Expand I am starting to think it is possible this advertised 'epic pattern' simply never produces, and then later in Feb, when we have a +NAO and everyone has given up, we pop a PNA ridge, all the stars align, and we thread the needle and jack a nice snowstorm lol. Could happen in a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 1:01 AM, losetoa6 said: I mostly was pointing out that there's been no torching whatsoever. I actually love working outside in the winter . I'll take high of 25 over a day 95/75 every single time Expand Agreed no torching even here. No winter weather here either. It’s the oatmeal pattern. Keeps you alive but boring as f*** 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 12:55 AM, losetoa6 said: Trend on the Euro has been weakening the primary Friday /Sat more and more every run . 18z the weakest and furthest south yet . Transfer in progress earlier at 90 . Only need a half dozen more bumps and a couple hundred more miles and well have a transfer off Hatteras Expand GFS took a huge jump south with that low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 1:16 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS took a huge jump south with that lowWhat are we doing here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 2:07 AM, losetoa6 said: Control with a 999 low off OC early Sat morning . -850s... check ...surface... a couple degrees colder we in bidness . Expand Be careful with these types of fronts. They’re fast moving and remember the precip is what has fallen over the last 6 hours. Obviously you know that, but a lot of new members might not, just pointing it out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 2:07 AM, losetoa6 said: Control with a 999 low off OC early Sat morning . -850s... check ...surface... a couple degrees colder we in bidness . Expand That got “real fast” lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 2:35 AM, Kevin Reilly said: That got “real fast” lolNo it didn't lolSent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 2:07 AM, losetoa6 said: Control with a 999 low off OC early Sat morning . -850s... check ...surface... a couple degrees colder we in bidness . Expand Does anybody know if WxBell allows access to the GEFS control like the EPS? I can't find it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 2:47 AM, losetoa6 said: It used to be part of the Gefs ensemble package Expand Yeah it used to be on the member panels along with all the members, but now it doesn't seem to be anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 2:43 AM, losetoa6 said: Nam says 35 Friday with snow Friday night Expand NAM’d 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 2:50 AM, SnowDreamer said: Yeah it used to be on the member panels along with all the members, but now it doesn't seem to be anywhere. Expand Maybe because the control is meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 2:58 AM, losetoa6 said: Yea...i was mostly trolling @CAPElol Expand I’m looking forward to your 5 minutes of snow TV so you can rub it in CAPE’s face you were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Be interesting to see the gfs for this. Seems to be a trend for a stronger system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 GFS has some snow showers next Monday in the region with the NS disturbance swinging through the NE. Mountains pick up 9”+ through MLK Day from the cold front, upslope, and the NS disturbance. Great timing for the holiday weekend and hope its right as I’ll be back in Deep Creek on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 Maybe everyone is big game hunting but seems like Saturday and early Monday snow shower potential is still there. 12z para gfs was more like 1” Monday while Op GFS struggles to get boundary layer temps below 40F. At night. In mid January. With 525dm thicknesses and 850 temps well below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 8:13 PM, WxUSAF said: Maybe everyone is big game hunting but seems like Saturday and early Monday snow shower potential is still there. 12z para gfs was more like 1” Monday while Op GFS struggles to get boundary layer temps below 40F. At night. In mid January. With 525dm thicknesses and 850 temps well below freezing. Expand I don't get why the OP GFS has been doing that, it's been consistent on it too. I must be missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 8:15 PM, wawarriors4 said: I don't get why the OP GFS has been doing that, it's been consistent on it too. I must be missing something. Expand The front is wimpy. Temps Friday night will "fall" into the mid to upper 30s for most. Sat temps will rise into the mid 40s. Could there be some splatty wet flakes early Sat morning? Sure. I haven't seen any legit snow here since 2019, and this doesn't excite me in the least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 10:17 PM, CAPE said: The front is wimpy. Temps Friday night will "fall" into the mid to upper 30s for most. Sat temps will rise into the mid 40s. Could there be some splatty wet flakes early Sat morning? Sure. I haven't seen any legit snow here since 2019, and this doesn't excite me in the least. Expand You are correct. But along the same lines, the gfs is totally whacky at times. Just look at it from about 7 days on compared to its prior run. It’s like two different models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 10:41 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: You are correct. But along the same lines, the gfs is totally whacky at times. Just look at it from about 7 days on compared to its prior run. It’s like two different models Expand I agree, but we are in the short range now and even have the mesos available for this weekend. I guess it has been dry lately, so the potential for maybe a half inch of rain is...different. lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 11:59 PM, Snowchaser said: Expand Does it remind you of 2018? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 12:29 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Does it remind you of 2018? Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Euro has been coming in snowier for Friday-Sunday for the mountains of MD/WV. 18z drops 5-9” there and even has a dusting/minor accumulation south of DC across Stafford and PWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Well the NAM made a slight adjustment of its low position LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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