aggiegeog Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 18Z GEFS snowdepth mean for Thursday morning is over 6" basically north of a Lubbock to Austin to Shreveport line. Over 12" north of a Amarillo to Waco to Texarkana line. Maxing at 17" around Sulphur Springs and Paris. Keep in mind this is the mean. Several members around 36" 10:1 in N and NE TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I don't know how it helps, but per Direct Energy's precautions, I told my pipes they are stupid. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Take my pipes......please!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Keep them dripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 hours ago, aggiegeog said: GEFS is absolutely nuts. If correct it would shatter snowfall records for North and Northeast Texas. 0z is slightly less crazy. but still a lot! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 This thing looks like a near blizzard for parts of north central Texas. Quiet the storm coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Ratios will be worse, but QPF better per GFS on mid-week system. Temps at the saturated level by Wednesday evening may not support efficient dendrite formation, could cause 'snizzle. 5 days out, but potentially even more interesting than Sunday, even if Sunday has better ratios just because of temps. I wonder how many buildings in DFW built for a total 1.5 or higher liquid equivalent snow weight on their roofs. I remember, after we moved to Texas, a supermarket roof collapsing back in Massapequa because of a couple of consecutive heavy snows. 8 lbs/square foot, a 1.5 inch liquid equivalent snowpack... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Ratios will be worse, but QPF better per GFS on mid-week system. Temps at the saturated level by Wednesday evening may not support efficient dendrite formation, could cause 'snizzle. 5 days out, but potentially even more interesting than Sunday, even if Sunday has better ratios just because of temps. This is probably why Steve keeps calling the mid-week system more significant on his FB page today. He normally doesn't use any strong word for thing this far out... https://www.facebook.com/wfaa.steve.mccauley 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I just got my email from Ambit regarding the need to cut back on electrical use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 31 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: I just got my email from Ambit regarding the need to cut back on electrical use. Direct Energy said we should properly insult our pipes. OT, verbatim GFS Wednesday starts with freezing rain in Houston before a quick change to rain, by the time heavy rain arrives it would near 40F, but 5 days out, maybe it turns out to be more than just a hundredth between changeover. skew-Ts in Winter, didn't think I'd do that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Dry slotting looks to be most likely failure mode for DFW. Could present either as virga or a complete abscence of moisture. Either way... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 25 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Dry slotting looks to be most likely failure mode for DFW. Could present either as virga or a complete abscence of moisture. Either way... Do you have anything of value to add? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Every time I look here, the storm timing moves up a bit faster. I like snow. What I really want though is the cold front to be through by Midnight Sunday so we don't have a high of 42F on a day when it is 18F or something in the afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 30 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Dry slotting looks to be most likely failure mode for DFW. Could present either as virga or a complete abscence of moisture. Either way... Worst case for DFW is 4-7" with 8-14" most likely and 20"+ possible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Euro relatively dry with DFW, ratios would still support ballpark 5 inches. Big Cities, I-35 Waco to San Marcos look like the winners. DFW may just be too far North for the big action. 12km NAM should be getting in range, looking at NYC subforum, NAM is having a good Winter up there and is even drier for DFW. GFS and Euro have a decent discrepancy on the amount of QPF in Houston Sunday night/Monday morning, almost half an inch. NAM splitting the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 One operational euro run and people freak about dry slotting DFW. Every other model had the cold timing nailed and the euro has been all over the place. 4-6” is not a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Looking at soundings on Euro, 850s and College Station support snow, QPF suggests more than drizzle, but temps are not cold enough in the saturated layer for dendrites, could be serious icing. Similar in Houston, except 850 temps don't quite support snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Does any PPV site have Euro ice/sleet/snow products? I'm not sure how they differentiate between sleet and freezing rain anyway, but am curious as to whether Euro has significant ice SETX. About a decade ago I spotted freezing drizzle over the snow HGX forecast, the NY subforum has red taggers who explained top down forecasting, I think down here the mets may have just looked at 540 thickness and 850 temps and said snow, but I wish a red tagger from a Northern forum could look at the soundings, because snow or freezing drizzle somehow seems simpler than sleet or freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Reviewing models for both storms I say worst case DFW sees 0.5" QPF, meaning say 0.1" QPF as mix being 0.25" accumulation and 0.4" as snow at 10:1 being 4" accumulation. Most likely it is closer to 1" QPF with all as snow and at 14:1 ratio meaning 10 to 14" of snow. And of course even higher is possible. So say a range of 4 to 24". Tyler could see 1.5 to 2" QPF but could lose 1/3 to mix and ratios more like 12:1. So 1 to 2" of ice and sleet along with 12 to 18" or snow. Worst case being 1" QPF and half lost to sleet being 1 to 2" sleet and 5" snow. Best case 2.5" QPF with 90% snow at 14:1 being 0.5 to 1" sleet and 30 to 36" snow. So say a range of 6 to 36". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I see that basically the whole state is covered in either a winter storm warning or watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 FWD dropped snow chances from 100% to 80% in their daily forecast for DFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ikcarsky Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 12 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I don't know how it helps, but per Direct Energy's precautions, I told my pipes they are stupid. Insuring they're properly insulted, not ensuring. You also need to take out a policy that will protect you from liability in the event the pipes aren't sufficiently demoralized by insults that are too shallow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 At least part of every single one of Texas' 254 counties has either a winter weather advisory, winter storm watch, or winter storm warning as of this comment. Truly insane stuff. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Currently the only part of Texas not predicted to freeze in the next week is Port Isabel and S. Padre Island. Even Brownsville is too far inland, Port Mansfield too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 This is insane for Dallas Stay safe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Might actually overperform on temps today... Sun is out and limited clouds over my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 8 hours ago, aggiegeog said: Reviewing models for both storms I say worst case DFW sees 0.5" QPF, meaning say 0.1" QPF as mix being 0.25" accumulation and 0.4" as snow at 10:1 being 4" accumulation. Most likely it is closer to 1" QPF with all as snow and at 14:1 ratio meaning 10 to 14" of snow. And of course even higher is possible. So say a range of 4 to 24". Tyler could see 1.5 to 2" QPF but could lose 1/3 to mix and ratios more like 12:1. So 1 to 2" of ice and sleet along with 12 to 18" or snow. Worst case being 1" QPF and half lost to sleet being 1 to 2" sleet and 5" snow. Best case 2.5" QPF with 90% snow at 14:1 being 0.5 to 1" sleet and 30 to 36" snow. So say a range of 6 to 36". What about Killeen, do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 It’s the DFW snow hole opening up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 okay, so I am from Chicago, just relocated to Fort Worth last October...... I am so not looking forward to this. (I should be used to it, though, right?) Right now, IMBY, sun is out, 33 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The sun was definitely unexpected but has nothing to do with what is about to happen. FWD NWS is actually increasing snow totals. See afternoon AFD. Calling for 4-8 inches now. They also said the storm mid week may actually be more significant. Still expect the coldest air in over 30 years on Monday. If we fail to reach 13°F for a daily high, then it will be an all time record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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