canderson Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 My parents outside Longview already have a sheet of ice on their driveway tonight. I lived there 25 years and don’t think I ever saw a sub 10 degree day so they’re in for rare territory this next week. Best wishes to all down there, things are built for that cold and snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Have a feeling 0z batch going to be a somewhat encouraging cycle for North TX. ICON is bringing back more snow with a longer period. Short term models are depicting the new development AFD was talking about this afternoon. NAM is actually showing 2+ inches for DFW even before Sunday, which sounds a little crazy to me Friday Night through Saturday... An active weather pattern will be in place as we begin the weekend across North and Central Texas. An approaching upper level shortwave will be making its way through the region, tracking from West Texas down toward the Hill Country. Given the shallow cold airmass, this shortwave will induce strong isentropic ascent, leading to the development of drizzle early Saturday morning. With surface temperatures well below freezing, any drizzle will instantly freeze upon contact, creating a thin coating of ice on ANY surface. In additional the the drizzle potential, guidance is beginning to trend toward a localized threat for a batch of sleet or snow mainly west of I-35 Saturday afternoon. Given this is a fairly new development, we`ll continue to watch this potential as it could cause additional travel hazards as we go into Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 hours ago, canderson said: My parents outside Longview already have a sheet of ice on their driveway tonight. I lived there 25 years and don’t think I ever saw a sub 10 degree day so they’re in for rare territory this next week. Best wishes to all down there, things are built for that cold and snow. I'll have to step outside to see what it's like now, but I had to help a friend out tonight and there was ice forming on my bed cover. When I got in my truck to the second time is when I noticed more ice on the door handle and mirror. Roads/sidewalks were fine but that's been about 4 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Models that I've seen this morning aren't really discouraging imo. I did notice that FWD changed from stating 3-7" and is pushing 2-6" instead, but I think as things stand right now, we should be able to get to that point. They have some cool graphics, and this link shows some features that I didn't know existed, maybe y'all have seen it but here it is: Winter Weather Probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Apparently, there's light lake effect snow falling near Tarrant/Dallas county line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWineman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I'm in downtown Fort Worth right now and am seeing some flakes drift down. Temps at my house are at 22. Unless the sun break through the clouds, I see no chance of seeing temps hitting the forecasted 29 today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 20 minutes ago, SWineman said: I'm in downtown Fort Worth right now and am seeing some flakes drift down. Temps at my house are at 22. Unless the sun break through the clouds, I see no chance of seeing temps hitting the forecasted 29 today. Same here in SE Denton Ct. Forecasted to be a high of 2C and we're still sitting at -5C now. No way we can reach that high. This has been the case for the last several days. I wonder how this cold was so underestimated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Dallas would like the GFS better for the two storms, assuming one likes snow. Houston would like the Euro better for QPF down here, mid week storm Euro is, literally, one degree Celsius too warm for the famous once a decade Houston big highway cloverleaf ramps skating party. Not a lot of QPF mid-week, but a touch colder, just a dab'll do ya. I think, looking at Euro and GFS, Houston has very little freezing rain Monday, a change from rain to sleet and graupel. Wondering if some snow flakes might survive the slight warm nose. Sleet or snow, once you have half an inch, the pictures look very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Models seem to be showing a QPF hole over DFW as the energy transfers into a Gulf low early Monday. Midweek system looks to track further west which should fill in the snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Seeing the latest example of the D.C. snow hole makes me nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 27 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: Models seem to be showing a QPF hole over DFW as the energy transfers into a Gulf low early Monday. Midweek system looks to track further west which should fill in the snow hole. Can tell you right now: it won't. Seriously when are y'all gonna get that it does not, for some bizzare reason, snow here anymore? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 38 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: Models seem to be showing a QPF hole over DFW as the energy transfers into a Gulf low early Monday. Midweek system looks to track further west which should fill in the snow hole. Would you mind sharing which model(s) are you seeing this happening? I remember both GFS and NAM 12z remain fairly strong for DFW region Edit: i guess i see what you mean. RGEM is showing the snow ends for DFW late Sunday instead of Monday morning then it's previously depicting? I feel that remain to be verified by other models. At the end of the day, 2+ inches for DFW is really really good given how things went in the past 5 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I moved here (Lewisville TX) from Eastern NC and this is my fourth winter here. I brought the snow hole with me. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: Would you mind sharing which model(s) are you seeing this happening? I remember both GFS and NAM 12z remain fairly strong for DFW region Euro and ICON both have the coastal low further off of the coast causing less N TX precip though plenty for E TX. GFS and Canadian are further west with the low keeping it nearer to the coast brining more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, vwgrrc said: Would you mind sharing which model(s) are you seeing this happening? I remember both GFS and NAM 12z remain fairly strong for DFW region I've seen a QPF drop off on some models for DFW... not necessarily a complete hole, just a lesser area (as in, say 0.2 or 0.3 rather than 0.4 and higher in the surrounding areas). Makes me pessimistic tbh. We got missed to the west and north, then to the south east, but not at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, TexMexWx said: I've seen a QPF drop off on some models for DFW... not necessarily a complete hole, just a lesser area (as in, say 0.2 or 0.3 rather than 0.4 and higher in the surrounding areas). Makes me pessimistic tbh. We got missed to the west and north, then to the south east, but not at the same time A literal hole would be perfectly on brand and is probably what happens in the end. 100% of setups have busted in the past six years. If every setup up to this point has done so, why would the latest one pan out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I wonder if the colder than modeled temps we are seeing daily will adjust the storm track south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 The FWD NWS is upgrading the Winter Storm Watch to a Warning now. Interesting forecast discussion this afternoon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 16 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: I wonder if the colder than modeled temps we are seeing daily will adjust the storm track south. Thanks goodness someone distracted us from "the hold" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, DFWWeather said: The FWD NWS is upgrading the Winter Storm Watch to a Warning now. Interesting forecast discussion this afternoon. I don't like the nagging thought in my mind that we could still get missed DESPITE literally being in a warning now. For the record, I would call this a huge disappointment if I don't get at least an inch on the ground. I would still be a little disappointed if it was less than two inches, because technically that wouldn't verify the forecast. Anything >2" I will gladly cash out with. Still a waiting game I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, DFWWeather said: The FWD NWS is upgrading the Winter Storm Watch to a Warning now. Interesting forecast discussion this afternoon. I sure hope SHV goes with a watch areawide with this update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 From the FWD AFD .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Saturday evening onward/ Key Messages: (1) A historic winter storm is poised to impact North and Central Texas, with impacts beginning as early as Saturday morning, continuing through Monday. (2) Extremely cold temperatures, rivaling the December 1989 Arctic Outbreak, are forecast on Sunday and into Monday, with prolonged much below normal temperatures expected to continue through next week. (3) Major impacts resulting in severe stress to the region`s infrastructure (particularly power, water, and highways) are likely. Regional travel will be crippled for days. (4) Additional frozen precipitation will be possible toward the middle of next week, though confidence is low in the details at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, DFWWeather said: The FWD NWS is upgrading the Winter Storm Watch to a Warning now. Interesting forecast discussion this afternoon. Good chance FWD has egg on its face come Monday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Good chance FWD has egg on its face come Monday afternoon I doubt they would miss it that badly at this rage. Meanwhile, 18z ICON and NAM remain bullish for DFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXHawk88 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Good chance FWD has egg on its face come Monday afternoon The chances of this busting in a big way are extremely slim as we get closer. Are we getting a foot off snow? No! But the DFW region getting 3-5 inches is an extremely strong probability much better odds than us getting nothing. I feel your pain, we’ve been burned so many times in the past, this doesn’t feel like one of them. You keep trying to find the negatives, we’re all going to see some legitimate winter weather! this is hands down the best set up I’ve seen since I moved here in 2012. Enjoy it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 EWX- This is an unprecedented week of weather for South-Central Texas. Our collective group of meteorologists at our offices can not remember a time where we had 4 potential winter weather events across our County Warning Area in one week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 DFW will do fin with this as they will see a combined >0.5" QPF easy all as snow and at ratios higher than 10:1. East Texas will likely see >1" QPF but some sleet may make the event closer to a 10:1 especially south of I-20. For the Tyler to Texarkana line I see less problems with mixing thus my forecasts being higher than modeled snow output. NE TX could have spots with 12-24" of snow this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 GEFS is absolutely nuts. If correct it would shatter snowfall records for North and Northeast Texas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 43 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: GEFS is absolutely nuts. If correct it would shatter snowfall records for North and Northeast Texas. What does it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Over 1" QPF for N TX and over 2" QPF for NE TX. Some members around 3 feet of snow at 10:1 in NE TX. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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