KC Storm Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Looks your finally going to get slammed. Good luck down there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I really hope we do get slammed (by snow). Granted I just woke up to the news of the massive pileup nearby and I'm not happy about that at all. I just hope people can stay safe, regardless of what else happens with the weather here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Aggiegeog I'll tip my hat to you for calling this if it verifies. Though I still like the lesser amounts for now. Notice 3 to 6 being highlighted by Fort Worth NWS. Starting to see trend in models of lesser snow amounts than what was seen yesterday for DFW. Of course this will change for each model iteration, we won't get a good handle on this until the system gets sampled by the upper air network tomorrow night. I am growing increasingly concerned with the powdery snow, winds being forecast (30 mph gusts) and extreme cold of near blizzard conditions at times Sunday night in and around DFW. The most impressive part is the fact that some type of frozen precip is likely to be seen all the way to Brownsville with this system. Practically the entire state. Of course the other impressive part is the extreme cold. At coldest point I call for 7°F to 10°F at DFW without snowpack, with snowpack temps could easily reach 0°F. So easily the coldest air in 30 plus years (since December 1989 anyway -1°F). If we somehow were to get to -3°F (not sure about that)...it'll be the coldest in 120 years (since February 1899). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, TexMexWx said: I really hope we do get slammed (by snow). Granted I just woke up to the news of the massive pileup nearby and I'm not happy about that at all. I just hope people can stay safe, regardless of what else happens with the weather here. Yeah that pile up was nasty. It managed to sleet here for all of 2 minutes and glazed over every surface including the streets. Have to imagine something similar happened with the 100+ car pileup there. Parts of centeal TX now under a Winter Storm Warning with a 26 car pileup in Austin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Also just noticed that the latest long-term AFD mentions "more snow chances" for the middle of next week. Been seeing talks in the MO/KS/AR/OK discussion about that system, but granted it's probably too far away for me to want to discuss, because there is too much that can change between now and then (or between now and the Sun/Mon system, as a matter of fact). Some models do shown us getting a second round in that timeframe though as far as I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 14 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Yeah that pile up was nasty. It managed to sleet here for all of 2 minutes and glazed over every surface including the streets. Have to imagine something similar happened with the 100+ car pileup there. Parts of centeal TX now under a Winter Storm Warning with a 26 car pileup in Austin Honestly, we could be seeing those massive weather-related pileups in San Antonio, and maybe even Houston in the coming days. It's crazy to have such a wide scope of freezing temps and ice down here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 21 minutes ago, DFWWeather said: Starting to see trend in models of lesser snow amounts than what was seen yesterday for DFW. Central TX getting slammed while NTX misses out would also be very on brand for the past 6 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 14 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Central TX getting slammed while NTX misses out would also be very on brand for the past 6 years I might end up having to move down to the Austin area, but I know that as soon as that happens, the pattern will flip. You're welcome. Enjoy beating the February 11-12, 2010 snowstorm while I sit and suffer in 80 degree February temperatures or something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 12z GFS keeps the amount on the lesser side for DFW. I can only hope it doesn't pull back more at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 19 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: 12z GFS keeps the amount on the lesser side for DFW. I can only hope it doesn't pull back more at this point Like clockwork. Every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I think the early week system is a 3-6" event for most north of I-10, with higher potential if the warm nose on models is overdone from greater ratios. We'll know more by Sat morning after the system moves ashore. The mid week storm will likely be pretty similar to the early week storm but maybe a bit warmer at the surface and colder in the upper levels possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 34 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: 12z GFS keeps the amount on the lesser side for DFW. I can only hope it doesn't pull back more at this point I'm just going to hope that it's more like "trending back to reality" than a "trending north and going to miss us" thing. However, considering the clown kuchera maps still showing 3 feet of snow in parts of Oklahoma, we're probably not back in "reality" territory for the models yet My classes are cancelled, and I wanted to go back to sleep upon realizing? Why can't I? Stupid weather model stress... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I am not concerned about missing out on the snow Monday along I-20 as models show good snow for most of the state they have just backed off on amounts as the wave is weaker and doesn't go negative tilt. Plenty of time for that to change even with the lower models currently I-20 corridor gets 3-6". The Canadian is crushing areas of N and NE TX Wed with >1" QPF of snow. Between the two storms most everyone will have 4-8 with some having a lot more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Euro 850s are barely above freezing, I no longer have a good PPV model page since WeatherBell jacked my rates, I'd love to see Monday skew-Ts to see how much of the forecast 0.8 inches is sleet or freezing rain in Houston. Half an inch liquid DFW, all snow and 850 mb below -10°C and well below freezing surface, that should fluff well over 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Weather-related disaster in Fort Worth. You guys have probably already heard this on the news if you are from this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 40 minutes ago, Chinook said: Weather-related disaster in Fort Worth. You guys have probably already heard this on the news if you are from this area. 5 dead at least. The truck drivers who piled in looked like they were going the speed limit. This was well forecast by FWD, I suspect the highway information signs had messages about driving on ice. And people were still driving the speed limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Temperatures look to bust way low in Longview. Was originally forecast this morning to get to 40F, they've changed it to 38F. We've actually dropped from 34F to 33F as of 2 pm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWineman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, cstrunk said: Temperatures look to bust way low in Longview. Was originally forecast this morning to get to 40F, they've changed it to 38F. We've actually dropped from 34F to 33F as of 2 pm... I haven’t budged 27 on the nw side of Ft. Worth. Temp highs have been consistently too warm here by 5 degrees or so since the initial front came through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Looks like 18z ICON is bringing back a little bit more snow for DFW area while NAM32 is saying What snow? Need GFS to pick a side... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, cstrunk said: Temperatures look to bust way low in Longview. Was originally forecast this morning to get to 40F, they've changed it to 38F. We've actually dropped from 34F to 33F as of 2 pm... SHV NWS extended the WAA until tomorrow, was originally only until noon today. Temps here only rose to 28 and seem to be dropping again. For now dry air near the surface is preventing more precip north of I-20, but that may change over time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 24 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: Looks like 18z ICON is bringing back a little bit more snow for DFW area while NAM32 is saying What snow? Need GFS to pick a side... If you bet on the drier and/or warmer solution every setup since March 2015 you'd be a millionaire by now. I don't know what quirk of climatology causes consistent frozen precip busts but it doesn't seem to be captured adequately by any weather models. Especially outside 4-5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, cheese007 said: If you bet on the drier and/or warmer solution every setup since March 2015 you'd be a millionaire by now. I don't know what quirk of climatology causes consistent frozen precip busts but it doesn't seem to be captured adequately by any weather models. Especially outside 4-5 days That is a very DFW centric anomaly. Take today for example, a frozen mix is coating much of the state when only scattered light precip was modeled. The January snow was very well modeled even a 7-10 days beforehand. You cannot only consider a small geographic region. The Southern Plains are in the middle of one of the best winters in history with winter storms almost weekly somewhere in the region. This trend has no end insight as long as the -AO is in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Quote Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 351 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY... TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>134-141-120600- /O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0002.210214T0600Z-210216T0000Z/ Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Comanche- Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman, Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur, Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar, Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman, Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, Edgewood, Emory, East Tawakoni, Point, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman, Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Comanche, and De Leon 351 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches possible. Bitterly cold temperatures expected. Near blizzard conditions possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Texas. * WHEN...From late Saturday night through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel will become nearly impossible and could become life threatening. The cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precautions should be taken now to secure pipes and anything susceptible to the extreme cold. Have plenty of food and ways to stay warm in case of power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$ Dunn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Houston AFD mentions possibility of not being able to travel from late Sunday into Tuesday. Looking at models, hard to tell if it will be rain, and for how long. 850 mb temps drop pretty quickly Monday morning, so I suspect a rain to sleet to snow event. QPF varies, Euro is over 3/4 inches. GFS a little less, both close on surface temps at the start around 6Z Monday Dallas people will hate 18Z QPF. But ratios should be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 FW mentioning blizzard conditions this far out is surprising but well deserved. There will be blowing and drifting of the heavy high ratio snow. Especially along and west of I-35. East of I-35 ratios likely drop closer to 10:1 but QPF will be greater so totals will likely be similar. The second storm midweek will continue the hazards into late week so those of us with kids will have lots of virtual learning days to look forward to, yay lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I took my document camera home. My school district doesn't observe Presidents' Day but is giving teachers and students tomorrow off. It is hard to teach math w/o a document camera and I can see my school insisting on a remote day Monday. We were told to bring our computers and materials home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 40 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: That is a very DFW centric anomaly. Take today for example, a frozen mix is coating much of the state when only scattered light precip was modeled. The January snow was very well modeled even a 7-10 days beforehand. You cannot only consider a small geographic region. The Southern Plains are in the middle of one of the best winters in history with winter storms almost weekly somewhere in the region. This trend has no end insight as long as the -AO is in place. Oh yeah I know DFW is the odd man out. I just want to understand why. It's disheartening when you enjoy snow as much as I do and practically know nothing will accumulate no matter what FWD thinks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 It will be interesting to see if FW and maybe SHV issue their first blizzard warnings ever. Seems to be a decent chance for FW west of I-35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I wonder if DFW would have any trouble with power outage this time? It was very bad in Dec 2013 ice storm, but not too surprised given that was almost pure freezing rain. This time is all snow, which shouldn't be an issue for most power lines. Any thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 56 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: I wonder if DFW would have any trouble with power outage this time? It was very bad in Dec 2013 ice storm, but not too surprised given that was almost pure freezing rain. This time is all snow, which shouldn't be an issue for most power lines. Any thought? Doubtful DFW has outages from precipitation as it will be dry snow. As long as the grid is prepared for record demand then DFW should be fine. SE TX is another story where major icing will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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