cheese007 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Dallas TX: it can be cold, or there can be precip. Never both! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 On 2/5/2021 at 9:19 PM, cheese007 said: Dallas TX: it can be cold, or there can be precip. Never both! Well looks like it will be both for the next 14 days. It will vary between very cold and dry to cold with moisture. Lots of chances for light frozen precip throughout Feb. The cold will be story though with some sub zero temps likely and widespread sub 15. Highs below freezing and maybe below 20 are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 After a bit of model carziness over the weekend things are becoming clearer. I am going with a blend of the ICON and GFS for my forecast as they have been largely consistent. Looks like the cold builds from 40s for highs mid week to 20s for highs over the weekend with lows in the single digits north of I-20 with sub zero temps in NW TX. The ripples will be nearly impossible to pin down, but some light frozen mixed precip seems likely late this week with snow being more likely this weekend and into next week. Looks a lot like early Feb 2011 but maybe colder. ICON threatens the all time state low temp record of -23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 54 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: After a bit of model carziness over the weekend things are becoming clearer. I am going with a blend of the ICON and GFS for my forecast as they have been largely consistent. Looks like the cold builds from 40s for highs mid week to 20s for highs over the weekend with lows in the single digits north of I-20 with sub zero temps in NW TX. The ripples will be nearly impossible to pin down, but some light frozen mixed precip seems likely late this week with snow being more likely this weekend and into next week. Looks a lot like early Feb 2011 but maybe colder. ICON threatens the all time state low temp record of -23. This is quite the cold spell! Severe cold at DFW is defined as a low temp of 10 or lower and/or a high of 20 or lower. This is on the table. A 51 member GEM ensemble average is showing a low of 9°F on Sunday at DFW with a high of 22°F. The 6z GFS is showing low of 3°F and a high of 12°F for Sunday (0z 11°F to 20°F with 6°F on Monday morning). I noticed the NBM numbers are coming down with a low of 15°F and high of 26°F (these are a blend of all the models) at DFW. We have to go back to Janaury of 2018 for anything approaching this kind of cold. If temps get below 12°F, it will be the coldest since February of 1996. Also, I am seeing a strong indication of multi days of consecutive subfreezing temps with this event. Some models showing 5 or 6 days possible. It should be noted that the ECMWF has finally come onboard after being in la la land over the weekend (it didnt even agree with its weeklies). It really was the only model wavering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 12z GFS is one for the record books at DFW. Three days in a row of temps around 0 (-1°F for two morning and 1°F one morning) with a high of 7°F on Sunday (that would be the coldest MAX ever by a wide margin). I don't think I have ever seen that on this model. Likely not going to be this extreme...but wow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, DFWWeather said: 12z GFS is one for the record books at DFW. Three days in a row of temps around 0 (-1°F for two morning and 1°F one morning) with a high of 7°F on Sunday (that would be the coldest MAX ever by a wide margin). I don't think I have ever seen that on this model. Likely not going to be this extreme...but wow! True~ but I'm actually more interested in the frozen precip it shows Sun/Mon timeframe at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 hours ago, vwgrrc said: True~ but I'm actually more interested in the frozen precip it shows Sun/Mon timeframe at this point Interesting forecast discussion from the Fort Worth NWS talking about the possibility of record to near record cold with this Arctic blast. While the all time record cold for DFW is 8 below zero set on Feb 12, 1899, I think we will likely be well safe from that. However, highs may be in jeopardy if some of the colder guidance verifies. I do think lows at some point in the single digits will be attainable, even in the heat island of DFW, but particularly at DFW Airport. I would also love for DFW to break its ice/snow drought. Going on 6 years almost now. Going on 25 years since we last hit the single digits. This should happen every 5 years according to climatology. We are also at the climatology point of a subzero reading, so wouldn't be surprised if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I think we have a good chance at sub zero Tue morning after the snow on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The wind chill forecasts are getting downright dangerous. -10s to -20s is frostbite territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Put me down for 33 and raining with maybe some flurries lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Icing occuring in DFW this morning with travel issues along the Red River. Question for the day is will there be any real warming during the day today in N TX. Down to 39 here in Lindale already. I think there will be limited warming but that may be wishful thinking for those back towards DFW and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWineman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 It’s 29 here in NW Tarrant and completely dry. I can’t see us getting to 45 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, SWineman said: It’s 29 here in NW Tarrant and completely dry. I can’t see us getting to 45 today. Same here in S Denton. I feel the model might underestimated the cold a little bit. I won't be too surprised if we end up with snow/ice Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 FWD anticipating 33 and drizzle this evening for Dallas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 GFS and Euro, off and on between runs, sleet or freezing rain Monday late or Tuesday early in Houston. Late Monday/Tuesday could be a day off school... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Things are coming together nicely on most all models for a significant snow event early next week for most north of I-10. Closer to I-20 and north this looks to be a high ratio event (>15:1) with lower ratios (<10:1) along I-10. Before this event there will be freezing drizzle for DFW area this week, and a light mixed precip event on Saturday for the northern half of the state. Mid-week next week could feature another mixed precip event but that is over a week out so I will leave that one alone for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Could definitely get another Winter Weather advisory over the next couple of days for ice/freezing rain here in the Metroplex (Collin county) before the weekend. Good bet that there are gonna be some more problems on the road (I'm not going anywhere though) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, TexMexWx said: Could definitely get another Winter Weather advisory over the next couple of days for ice/freezing rain here in the Metroplex (Collin county) before the weekend. Good bet that there are gonna be some more problems on the road (I'm not going anywhere though) I am going to a funeral in McKinney tomorrow. I think roads will be ok, but watching things closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 hour ago, aggiegeog said: Things are coming together nicely on most all models for a significant snow event early next week for most north of I-10. Closer to I-20 and north this looks to be a high ratio event (>15:1) with lower ratios (<10:1) along I-10. Before this event there will be freezing drizzle for DFW area this week, and a light mixed precip event on Saturday for the northern half of the state. Mid-week next week could feature another mixed precip event but that is over a week out so I will leave that one alone for now. Past experiences with these deep Arctic airmass tells me it will be too dry for significant snows. In both December 1983 and 1989 (which this setup is similar too) it was just too dry to get it to precipitate. It tried several times, but it just ended up being flurries at best. It is going to be rather difficult to get it to precipitate in that type of Arctic air. A cursory glance on some of the models show dewpoints getting below zero across good portion of North Texas, even down to 0 at DFW. Very difficult to get precipitation in a setup like that. The best setup for significant snow and ice is along and just behind the Arctic front with a decent system. Also, when Arctic air retreats you might can get a decent setup if it doesn't erode too quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I need to go back and look at those but key to this event is above 900mb there is strong SW flow. Yes the low levels are going to be dry but that dryness is very shallow and can be overcome by heavy precip rates from above. If that occurs temps will fall to the low teens or even single digits. Some spots could see over 6 inches. It takes very little moisture to get rapidly accumulating snow at these temps. Basically the entire column is the dendritic growth zone and most of the column will be saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Fairly confident this time next week DFW's <1inch streak will still be standing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 More support for heavy snow via GFS Para which drops over a foot. A 3 to 6 inch even is supported by nearly every model and most ensemble members. This will be one of the classics with heavy powdery snow on Monday. Some will get buried and the rest will get plenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Now the ICON is showing the big snows followed by some of the coldest temps in Texas history. All of this on top of the icing issues over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 53 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: Now the ICON is showing the big snows followed by some of the coldest temps in Texas history. All of this on top of the icing issues over the next few days. 0z GFS and CMC are also showing a big snow day on the 15th. I wonder how the metro could screw this on up given it's still 5 days out 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 And now 0Z GFS is showing me at -6 Tue morning with WC of -18. The ICON and GFS have been the most consistent models on this event so I have to give them credence but sheesh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 16 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: 0z GFS and CMC are also showing a big snow day on the 15th. I wonder how the metro could screw this on up given it's still 5 days out Dry slot for DFW lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 22 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Dry slot for DFW lmao 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 59 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: And now 0Z GFS is showing me at -6 Tue morning with WC of -18. The ICON and GFS have been the most consistent models on this event so I have to give them credence but sheesh. I'm going to have to keep my faucets on steady drip/stream when I leave Thursday and return Monday... If that's even possible. I'm trying to travel to SW IA on Thursday and return to NE TX on Monday... With these trends I'm not sure if that will be possible.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 43 minutes ago, cstrunk said: I'm going to have to keep my faucets on steady drip/stream when I leave Thursday and return Monday... If that's even possible. I'm trying to travel to SW IA on Thursday and return to NE TX on Monday... With these trends I'm not sure if that will be possible.. Good luck with that trip, its gonna be a tricky trip if it even possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I would love to see it snow as much as all of you, however, I am cautious about going all out on significant snowfall with this upcoming event Sunday night into Monday across North Texas. Climatology strongly argues against it. In my lifetime, I have never seen it snow at DFW with temperatures in the low teens or single digits over the last 45 years. The air has to be extremely dry at the surface for temperatures to be that cold this far south. The only example I can find in climatology that may come close to this setup is the Arctic outbreak of February of 1899 where we got a little more than inch of snow with temperatures that cold. It was not all that much. Nearly all modeling is forecasting lows in the single digits to around 14 (depending on model) at DFW Sunday night. So, if it does snow greater than 2 inches, it will be one for the record books. Having said all that, it does look very impressive on the models. The cold coming off these same models is equally as impressive. Very confident lows below 12°F at DFW will be realized at some point making this the coldest outbreak since 1996. If we can get to 7°F it will be the coldest since December 1989 where it fell to 1 below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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